Mac Mini a hit! And its orders are only beginning to ship!

[lbodnar]

Anybody have any idea approx. how many computers a 1% increase would equate to?

In Q4 2004 there were about 50 million PCs sold. This is a rate of 0.2 billion PCs a year. 1% of them is 2 million units a year.

So in order to maintain their 2% share Apple have to sell 4 million Macs in 2005. To gain extra 1% they have to sell extra 2 million. To reach 10% share in new computers sold they have to sell 20 million Macs. They would have to increase their shipments five times!! However even this is not going to offset installed user base very much because this is what I think counts.

I would guess there are probably about 1 billion PCs on this planet and around 20 million Macs. Growth is a very slow process even if we all want it so much...

 

[jaromski]

I have 512 in it but may stick in 1 gig so it matches my quicksilver. My mini is a 1.42. I have never been impressed by the multitasking of my 3500+ but again it had to be running antivirus all the time.

Hmm...that's odd, I have an Athlon XP 3000+ system with 512meg and it runs faster than my G4 powerbook. I built the system in July/02 and it has a decent video card, but dated by today's standards. I think it is an Asus GeForce4 card. Anyway it is definately snappier than the powerbook. I just got the new 15" 1.67ghz G4 machine with 1GB ram. But I still prefer the Mac anyday to the other machine. Putting 1GB into this G4 machine was not a mistake. OS/X really starts to open up with more memory. I think that is the best upgrade you can make to your Mac. I think the next on my list would be a really fast hard drive. But as long as it wasn't too noisy.

Plus I was running antivirus and I keep about 10 programs running all the time. The new Athlon 64 chip is supposed to be even faster than the XP series but that machine is plenty fast enough for me. I would rather spend the money on mac hardware at this point anyway.

-jaromski

 

[panphage]

In Q4 2004 there were about 50 million PCs sold. This is a rate of 0.2 billion PCs a year. 1% of them is 2 million units a year.

So in order to maintain their 2% share Apple have to sell 4 million Macs in 2005. To gain extra 1% they have to sell extra 2 million. To reach 10% share in new computers sold they have to sell 20 million Macs. They would have to increase their shipments five times!! However even this is not going to offset installed user base very much because this is what I think counts.

I would guess there are probably about 1 billion PCs on this planet and around 20 million Macs. Growth is a very slow process even if we all want it so much...

I'd argue that the installed user base of Macs is far far higher than the units sold market share suggests. Macs last a LOT longer than a PC. I belong to a small cult of mac zealots who own and buff out a five year old Mac that was very unpopular when it was released. But Cubes sell every day on ebay, and dual 1.7 upgrades where just announced for it last month. I work with three people who still use their original bondi blue iMacs. Mac users just aren't consumed by the "upgrade or die" cycle Microsoft and crappy components have forced on the PC world (ok, ridiculously increasing game requirements has also been a major factor, I'll allow that as a respectable and legitimate reason for a shorter upgrade cycle--and wish we had that problem on the Mac side!) My guess is that there are a lot more macs out there being used than you think.

 

[BornAgainMac]

A earlier post suggested that web logs will show the most accurate method of marketshare. I consistently hear percentages of 10% or more.

Anyways, I hope Apple sells 4 million Minis this year. Probably will be closer to 2 million. Also I always see both the CompUSA Apple section and the Apple retail stores packed. They will need to have more stores or people will have to get use to online orders.

 

[Bigheadache]

I'd argue that the installed user base of Macs is far far higher than the units sold market share suggests. Macs last a LOT longer than a PC. I belong to a small cult of mac zealots who own and buff out a five year old Mac that was very unpopular when it was released. But Cubes sell every day on ebay, and dual 1.7 upgrades where just announced for it last month. I work with three people who still use their original bondi blue iMacs. Mac users just aren't consumed by the "upgrade or die" cycle Microsoft and crappy components have forced on the PC world (ok, ridiculously increasing game requirements has also been a major factor, I'll allow that as a respectable and legitimate reason for a shorter upgrade cycle--and wish we had that problem on the Mac side!) My guess is that there are a lot more macs out there being used than you think.

i'd argue thats its way smaller than you think on a global basis. Try finding a mac in china, india, or eastern europe. The only place where I have noticed a large number of Macs is in the US, which is hardly a growth market for computers in the first place. Theress a hell of a lot of cheapo pcs out there running pirated windows.

 

[jaromski]

i have a small website that right now has 20% mac and 80% windows users. i agree i think there is still a great deal of old macs out there chugging along just fine.

-jaromski

p.s. i think the pc upgrade cycle is changing, too. i agree that some pc components are inferior to mac, but anymore they all get their components from the same vendors. there are really good vendors in the PC world like asus that build high-quality components for a good price. but then there are really crappy vendors, too. i guess you don't get exposure to this as much in the mac scene because your hardware choices are so limited vs. a PC. but i don't think the argument that macs outlive PC's is really relevant anymore. they both should last the same assuming you buy your components from reputable vendors. i have PC's from 6-7 years ago that run just as well as they did the first day i bought them. macs too.

 

[lbodnar]

i have a small website that right now has 20% mac and 80% windows users.

Websites are very bad way to poll installed user base. I have 43% Mac users but majority come either via Mac-realted sites or from Mac-related google searches.

Who would know best?

"We have been able to complete transition to OS X with 14 million active users.
Steve Jobs, Macworld 2005

You can probably flex it both ways as some people own more than one Mac but also there are shared Macs with more than one active user so I stand behind 20mln active Macs, OK, make it 30mln if you wish. That's still only about 3%. I love Macs and have 4 of them but statistics is statistics...

 

[jaromski]

Websites are very bad way to poll installed user base. I have 43% Mac users but majority come either via Mac-realted sites or from Mac-related google searches.

Who would know best?
You can probably flex it both ways as some people own more than one Mac but also there are shared Macs with more than one active user so I stand behind 20mln active Macs, OK, make it 30mln if you wish. That's still only about 3%. I love Macs and have 4 of them but statistics is statistics...

yeah that's why i said my web site is small, small sample sizes can swing your results one way or the other. and it is a design sight and we all know how there is a disproportionate number of designers using mac. but my website isn't mac-based either.

but it does sound high. i would bet mac is anywhere from 3-10% it is just really hard to gauge.

-jaromski

 

[Macmaniac]

Before Apple can start making commercials they have to have some supply. At the moment its almost impossible to find a place that has them in stock. Time for Apple to make more!!!