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Applewatch42

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As a reference, around Christmas 2024, I bought a base Mac mini M4, it was 599$, why is the M6 Mac mini 300$ more for the same RAM and storage, is this related to the RAMpocalype by chance? Expected like a 100$ increase, but 300$! Damn
 
Tradein prices are up too. My mini m4 256/16 was originally 290 for tradein. Then when neo came out in March it was up to 350. Now I just checked today and my my mini is worth 480. Holy cow.

So 419 plus tax I can get a new mini m6. Or 319 plus tax if I can use edu. My niece just started college. Abiut 350 total.

Not bad. But for basic tasks m4 is fine. I don't need m6 even though it's cheap.
 
The price surge doesn't seem to matter all that much to me because the value of Apple products has gone up, so I can sell my M4 Mac Mini for pretty much the same Price as the M6 one.
 
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Tradein prices are up too. My mini m4 256/16 was originally 290 for tradein. Then when neo came out in March it was up to 350. Now I just checked today and my my mini is worth 480. Holy cow.

So 419 plus tax I can get a new mini m6. Or 319 plus tax if I can use edu. My niece just started college. Abiut 350 total.

Not bad. But for basic tasks m4 is fine. I don't need m6 even though it's cheap.
Trade-in prices in the UK are pathetic. £385 for a M4 mini with 24GB/1TB. It is c.1k on ebay.
 
I got the base M4 Mini for $499 back in late 2024 and find it appalling that they're forcing people to pay almost double that for the new base Mini. People have been incarcerated for less.
I paid 295.90 for base m4 mini. 220 tradein + 100 edu thanks to nephew on November 26 2024.

If I upgrade to base m6 it will be 899-480-100. So about 319+tax about 350 total.

But I will wait. Maybe MB Neo 2 will be worth getting if values hold till next year.
 
Was pricing a new Mini yesterday, just for curiosity's sake, don't actually need a new comp anytime soon (fingers crossed).

Ugh. Those SSD price increases. 😱 🙁

Even more reason to stick with the M2 Air, besides the fact it is working fine and comfortably does what I need.
 
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Was pricing a new Mini yesterday, just for curiosity's sake, don't actually need a new comp anytime soon (fingers crossed).

Ugh. Those SSD price increases. 😱 🙁

Even more reason to stick with the M2 Air, besides the fact it is working fine and comfortably does what I need.

Yeah, £500 here in the UK to go from 256GB to 1TB is criminal. Idc what anyone says, the margin on that upgrade is BONKERS.
 
The RAMpocalypse framing is basically correct but underrated. DRAM contract prices from Samsung and SK Hynix are up 60-80% YoY going into 2026 because everyone building AI accelerator boxes is inhaling HBM and DDR5 supply. Apple's LPDDR5X pricing follows that curve with a lag, and they don't eat the cost - they pass it through and quietly widen margin on the tier upgrades since the market's used to those being obscene anyway.

The M4 base at $599 in late 2024 was arguably the mispriced one, not the M6 base now. That $599 undercut the M2 mini by $100 in a period when SSD/RAM spot pricing was near a 5-year low. Comparing new-base to that specific window is the trap.

If you can hold off, refurb M4 units usually start filtering into Apple's refurb store around 12 months after launch, and the tradein bump ivnj mentioned means the used M4 market is a decent buy right now if new isn't a hard requirement.
 
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Their current pricing of the Mini (and the Neo and the Air) flies in the face of the original intent of the model in the first place.

In the case of the Mini, it was originally created to be a (comparatively) inexpensive introduction to Mac for those who already had the desktop peripherals, but were using another OS. And for those already with a Mac looking for an inexpensive upgrade. Same rationale behind the Neo, but for laptop users. Shot to hell now.

And any device built before Apple's announced price hike should not be included in it.
 
If you can hold off, refurb M4 units usually start filtering into Apple's refurb store around 12 months after launch, and the tradein bump ivnj mentioned means the used M4 market is a decent buy right now if new isn't a hard requirement.
That presupposes a steady supply of people dumping their M4s to get a bit of a speedbump (still TB4) at a much higher price. I'm not sure that is going to happen, even within industry.
 
This is all speculation because we don't know what their margins actually are. They could be scaling it due to their cost increase only, we just don't know.

Also, the mini is still not the most expensive it's ever been after inflation adjustments. Inflation exaggerates everything and makes it hard to compare costs of anything, especially when it happens so quickly.

1788008603781.png

Source: ATP

The company I work for is raising prices as costs go up and we aren't increasing prices above what are margin target is. However, customers think we're taking advantage of them during the current climate so we're taking the brunt of the disdain. In reality, we aren't making any more % of money than we were. We still have to make payroll, keep the lights on, and pay our bills. Businesses aren't built to lower their margins since all of their operating costs are built around those and they certainly aren't there to act like a non-profit. It sucks for everyone.
 
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Yeah, £500 here in the UK to go from 256GB to 1TB is criminal. Idc what anyone says, the margin on that upgrade is BONKERS.

Back in June 25 I bought a 2TB M.2 SSD stick from Amazon for £99. I think, at the time, going from 256GB to 2TB on a Mac was typically £600.

Today, a 2TB stick is going for £230+ vs £1000 for the Apple BTO upgrade.

Apple have been very gracious in not passing on the full x2.3 price increase to the customer. (I'm being sarcastic).

I'm looking at proportional increases not directly comparing chips - Apple may be using higher-end flash chips in their SSDs vs. a PCIe4 M.2, but those are likely to have seen a similar proportional increase in cost price, maybe more if they're in demand for AI). Apple's BTO RAM and storage prices have always been ~4x any reasonable estimate of the retail price of the chips, let alone at whatever discounted bulk rates they are able to negotiate.

Overall, I don't think Apple's proportional price rises have been unusual c.f. price rises across the rest of the industry. They were just starting from a generally higher place...
 
Ed Zitron says the LLM companies are primed to collapse. Once they do that should destroy exessive demand for RAM and storage, so then prices may return to levels seen a few years ago.
 
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If the mini were in the same place it was 10 or even 15 years ago I think Apple probably would've just discontinued it instead of increasing the price. For the longest time, the mini was always just a MacBook Air or 13" MacBook Pro in a desktop form factor. Specs were identical. But at the price they were sold for this was usually acceptable, though sometimes the product languished like the 2014 mini era.

When the M1 mini came out it went from that to an absolutely excellent desktop machine overnight, and only became even better when the Pro chip option was opened up. These are incredible desktops that for a very long time were priced extremely competitively and were one of the best deals in tech.

Today now with a price of $900 it is not a bad deal for what you get (if they bumped the SSD up to 512GB it would've been worth it for sure, in today's market, but oh well), and is still a solid jump in performance over the cheapest Mac which is only $200 cheaper currently. So I don't think that this price increase has made the mini an irrelevant product at all and it will still likely sell well.

This is not to dismiss that it is extremely frustrating that these increases have occurred. I and many others were entirely willing to buy a mini even if we didn't 'need' one because they could be had so cheaply it was an absolute bargain. I wanted one, but I waited too long in the M4 era because I had just bought a new MBP so figured I'd kick the can down the road, not knowing of the impending doom for prices. Now it's too much for me, because I can't justify it anymore when I already have the MBP. If it was still $599 I would've bought one in the fall.

So I don't think that Apple has killed the mini with the price increase. We live in a different reality now than a year ago. For how much longer this will go on I don't know, but I do not believe the claim that the bubble will pop soon and magically everything will go back to how it used to be. I think it will be many years, if ever, until we see 2023-2024 level prices again on these products. I despise that idea, but I am not an idealist and I understand there are many forces at play here. Apple is not free from blame in this, nor is it solely their choice to make. I can only hope that prices will not increase much further than they already have, though, I do believe they will.
 
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...We still have to make payroll, keep the lights on, and pay our bills. Businesses aren't built to lower their margins since all of their operating costs are built around those and they certainly aren't there to act like a non-profit. It sucks for everyone.

Apple struggling to make payroll, lights on and pay bills I daresay is not a problem for Apple. Paying their CEO the equivalent of the GDP of a small nation probably emphasizes that.

That said, yes, they are not a non-profit - but with a rumoured profit margin of around 40% when the competitors may be hovering under 10 suggest they have some wiggle room, if they cared to exercise it. Meanwhile happy to blow profits to their shareholders instead on AI and the infrastructure around that, when a significant portion of their consumer user base is...ambivalent...to it.
 
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This is all speculation because we don't know what their margins actually are. They could be scaling it due to their cost increase only, we just don't know.

Also, the mini is still not the most expensive it's ever been after inflation adjustments. Inflation exaggerates everything and makes it hard to compare costs of anything, especially when it happens so quickly.

View attachment 2656766
Source: ATP

The company I work for is raising prices as costs go up and we aren't increasing prices above what are margin target is. However, customers think we're taking advantage of them during the current climate so we're taking the brunt of the disdain. In reality, we aren't making any more % of money than we were. We still have to make payroll, keep the lights on, and pay our bills. Businesses aren't built to lower their margins since all of their operating costs are built around those and they certainly aren't there to act like a non-profit. It sucks for everyone.

This is very good information for those not familiar with how it works on the other side of the fence, so to speak.

I think most people's issues surround the fact that costs are going up much faster than income. So, even though companies are increasing selling prices to cover their costs (which they must do), the fact is that those costs are going up much faster than people can support. In the end this means that less people will be able to afford the products that these companies sell and the value for money calculation look much less attractive. All this results in lower volume and, in an effort to survive by cutting margins to increase sales, the possible demise of a lot of companies.

What I want to know is why costs for all parts of the supply chain seem to be going up. I understand (even if I find it reprehensible) why we have a RAM and solid state storage shortage, but we have products whose main components are not dominated by RAM and SSDs being increased in selling price by 15 to 50%. This means that there are other factors at work here. I tend to think that companies that have been operating at lower margins see an opportunity to raise prices on the back of the noise concerning tariffs and increased pricing of RAM and SSDs.

In the end, the result is lower sales in consumer markets for higher technology products. I do not see income climbing by the amount needed to release enough disposable income for these sorts of products.

As a side note, the official year on year inflation figures the government uses (around 3.6%) is no where near what I see in my personal costs. My costs excluding my very small mortgage have gone up 25% in 1 year (this covers electricity, fuel, insurance, food, services etc.). As a retiree, my income has essentially remained unchanged (around 3% increase). This is why there is such outrage at these price increases. Another side note here, it might be that Apple have been absorbing these cost increases for a while and may have had to give in when margin erosion was prohibitive. This resulted in a shock increase, but the underlying cause for the cost increases is still prohibitive and unwarranted.
 
This is very good information for those not familiar with how it works on the other side of the fence, so to speak.

I think most people's issues surround the fact that costs are going up much faster than income. So, even though companies are increasing selling prices to cover their costs (which they must do), the fact is that those costs are going up much faster than people can support. In the end this means that less people will be able to afford the products that these companies sell and the value for money calculation look much less attractive. All this results in lower volume and, in an effort to survive by cutting margins to increase sales, the possible demise of a lot of companies.

What I want to know is why costs for all parts of the supply chain seem to be going up. I understand (even if I find it reprehensible) why we have a RAM and solid state storage shortage, but we have products whose main components are not dominated by RAM and SSDs being increased in selling price by 15 to 50%. This means that there are other factors at work here. I tend to think that companies that have been operating at lower margins see an opportunity to raise prices on the back of the noise concerning tariffs and increased pricing of RAM and SSDs.

In the end, the result is lower sales in consumer markets for higher technology products. I do not see income climbing by the amount needed to release enough disposable income for these sorts of products.

As a side note, the official year on year inflation figures the government uses (around 3.6%) is no where near what I see in my personal costs. My costs excluding my very small mortgage have gone up 25% in 1 year (this covers electricity, fuel, insurance, food, services etc.). As a retiree, my income has essentially remained unchanged (around 3% increase). This is why there is such outrage at these price increases. Another side note here, it might be that Apple have been absorbing these cost increases for a while and may have had to give in when margin erosion was prohibitive. This resulted in a shock increase, but the underlying cause for the cost increases is still prohibitive and unwarranted.
Yes this is exactly the way to read what is happening. In my industry there are already clear signs of competitors that are stressed to the point of being desperate. Many on the brink of closing.
 
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That said, yes, they are not a non-profit - but with a rumoured profit margin of around 40% when the competitors may be hovering under 10 suggest they have some wiggle room, if they cared to exercise it. Meanwhile happy to blow profits to their shareholders instead on AI and the infrastructure around that, when a significant portion of their consumer user base is...ambivalent...to it.

The only people really doing well are those speculating on the stock market.
 
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