The problem is that by the summer things may be so bad that no one wants to shell out a penny more than current prices. The way you're talking Apple can disregard the economy and charge what it wants. It can't.
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Mac Pro 2009 : Expect delays and more expensive!
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The problem is that by the summer things may be so bad that no one wants to shell out a penny more than current prices. The way you're talking Apple can disregard the economy and charge what it wants. It can't.
Funny, Apple seems to be disregarding what "most people" want in a computer (xMac), and they've been doing just fine.
I'm sorry, but nothing that I have seen about my environment suggests that this "recession" will affect Apple or the general public. Besides, people buying the Mac Pro aren't the general public, even if it does. The people who need Mac Pros will be able to get Mac Pros.
Apple basically do that anyway. I doubt even 1% upgrade the processors so Apple are probably paying close to, if not the actual, 1000 unit price on the higher end Xeons. I've always maintained that Apple are the biggest buyer of the 2.8GHz processor (I don't think HP or Dell even offer them), so the discount on them could be minimal to large depending on how the deal was done. The 2.66GHz Xeons should be more widely adopted so the price to Apple could be closer to what they pay now rather than $958 a chip, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't take the opportunity to increase it to $2,999. Apple's profits are obviously high on such systems so they have wiggle room, but they don't seem to be phased by such issues and it's the case of the "if it is too expensive don't buy it" mentality.
I mean are they going to lose any customers if they are still $1,500 cheaper than any other big company selling dual processor workstations with similar specs? Or is anyone going to not buy a Mac Pro because it costs $200 more now even though the hardware is vastly superior and couldn't be built for less? Retail will probably see $1000+ for the processors and $500 for a board. So $500 for OS, hard drive, memory, graphics card, case, 1KW PSU, mouse, keyboard isn't a bad deal.
Of course there will still be the problem of if you want a desktop but don't want an iMac you have to spend a lot more on a Mac Pro for features you don't need or won't use, but sadly that seems it will be there for some time to come.
Plus there might be BTO options that lower the price, much like the past Mac Pros.
I responded to what you said about the CPUs in my other thread: Do you think that Apple will use all four clock speeds and offer the 2.66 as the cheaper BTO as an analogue to the 4-core option of today?
+1. To offer some perspective, I am a Ph.D. student in meteorology at The University of Oklahoma. As part of my research, I utilize a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and a large eddy simulation (LES). In order for these models to complete in a reasonable time, they require large memory, hard drive space, and computing power. Right now, I am running the model on the newest Mac Pro given in my signature.
We will soon start to implement the Ph.D. funds that I have for my project, where my adviser wants me to buy at least 3 Mac Pros when the new ones come out so that we can use XGrid or the like to spread the jobs over even more processors. Plus the benefits of Snow Leopard should be greatly felt in our case.
So as you may see, money is no object to us, recession or not. For every University project like mine, there are countless others doing the same or more, even just in my own department. I suspect Apple will do just fine.
Bingo. The Mac Pro isn't marketed as a personal computer. The Mac Pro is marketed as a specialized workstation for projects such as this. They work as render factories, sure, but also as weather simulators, medical... backy-uppy computational things, and in other specialized fields.
Intel lowers wafer starts to keep the supply/demand in check. also, changing to a new family of chips one might want to clear out old invetory first.
One of the issue is, does anyone know what the wafer starts are across the the Intel Fabs are right now, Fab17, 11X, 12 and 32 and in Hillsboro?
I can't imagine all the factors are fully loaded at this time
If they are not fully loaded today then that means product availability of the new chips and chipsets in April, May, June time frame will be lower.if the factories start ramping back up say in the April, May or June time frame thn availability in the 2H of 09 will be greater and perhaps through better yields, faster throughput times and higher wafer starts.
This all leads to Intel profits
Of course pure speculation on my behalf
I have read a few articles online recently suggesting that Intel are being asked by some motherboard manufacturers to push the release of new Nehalem based products back. This is because they have built up stockpiles of Core2 DDR2 based boards and they want to reduce their inventories to avoid having to lower prices on these to shift them. This would no doubt be necessary if Intel started shipping Nehalem DDR3 based product now.
Although I can see this may be an issue with mainstream desktop and portable boards I don't see that the Xeon server boards are likely to be stockpiled in the same quantities as they are a smaller more specialised part. If this is the case then the next iMac and MacBook ranges are probably more likely to be delayed more than the Mac Pro.
Although I can see this may be an issue with mainstream desktop and portable boards I don't see that the Xeon server boards are likely to be stockpiled in the same quantities as they are a smaller more specialised part. If this is the case then the next iMac and MacBook ranges are probably more likely to be delayed more than the Mac Pro.
I'm curious...at 19 what is your "environment"? I can only surmise it's your parents house. You don't think the recession will affect Apple or the general public? Do you read the news, or ever go outside? When you're not paying a mortgage or rent, and you don't have to pay bills in general the world certainly seems a lot rosier than when you actually get out on your own and realize supporting yourself is expensive. When I was 19 a 5000 dollar mac pro seemed easily attainable as well.
You are quite young and inexperienced, though I am sure you don't feel this is the case. Everyone feels that way at your age. However, the reality is that things could be getting much worse and Apple WILL be affected. When people are worried about simply feeding their families, upgrading to nehalem based machines so they can do video encoding 40% faster, but all their regular stuff is just a little faster, will likely be the very last thing on their list. Academia and higher end industries will not be any better off either. We will see, but to think that Apple is not affected by what they charge for their products is flat out wrong. Demand for Apple computers is not inelastic.
I believe, in an argument over maturity, I have already won, as you have stooped to the level of insulting my intelligence and experience based on my age. My environment would be the city in which I live. Living in conservative northeastern Indiana, I have not seen much of the repercussions of this recession on the people around me, however, our daily newspapers my skew things to hide the "truth"; although I cannot see the purpose in hiding mass layoffs if there are any.
Now the question is: Was it in reality? Because I will be purchasing my Mac Pro, a 3.2GHz 8-core Nehalem, on the day of release, paid in full with money earned working at our local retirement community. We are not rich; my mother is a public school teacher and my father pays about half of his required child support. I know the value of money and the benefits of frugality.
Do you really think that I think I know everything? Why would I have made a collaboration thread on the Gainestown Mac Pro if this were the case? If I believed that I knew everything, would I even be here? I doubt it. I wouldn't even be on MacRumors because I would have "figured everything out" on my own. Everything that I DO know about computers, I've had to teach myself, and, because I find it relatively boring, I know squat about networking. Because of this, I can't get my printer to connect to my computer over an ad-hoc Wi-Fi network and am thus having to rely on the printers of my friends until I can figure it out (any tips? It's a Samsung CLP-315W)
I've been seeing talk of trouble feeding families and choosing between food and paying bills, but have at this point passed it off as rampant speculation, much like the status of Steve Jobs' health. For the sake of the nation, however, I truly hope that you are wrong. The last thing we need is another Great Depression.
What about me then? I'm in my mid-twenties, I have my own apartment and am paying off the mortgage. I live in the capitol of my country, just on the limit of the CBD, and I'm doing just fine on my sick leave (basically a 20% pay cut until I'm well again).
I'm also single, meaning my cost of living is significantly higher than someone sharing an apartment with someone.
My friends are going on holiday trips left right square and center, and nobody is worried.
Why?
* Fiscal planning.
* MSM likes to spread bad news because nothing sells like bad news.
Is there a world-wide recession going on? No doubt.
Is it bad? Sure, for the fiscally irresponsible people who shouldn't be allowed to own a wallet, much less a credit card.
The bottom line is that for a whole lot of people, nothing's changed.
All the stories about foreclosures and panic around the world?
Vocal minority.
In this day and age of imagined monetary systems, the problems are imaginary as well and could be dealt with quickly if cooler heads prevailed.
The situation with housing markets crashing is nothing new.
We had a big crash over here in the early nineties, but we recovered well enough because of certain decisions made at government levels.
It's a shame it won't be as easy for those of you in America, as you anything vaguely socialist is frowned upon (i.e., the government investing in ailing companies rather than just throwing money at them).
Right now, things are more or less OK, with the fiscally irresponsible taking the fall (as is only proper, might I add).
The key part in your post is that things "could be getting much worse".
Of course they can!
Things can always get worse.
Your government is stoking the fire with all the bailouts, and the media is pouring gasoline on the flames with the incessant doom-and-gloom reporting.
This is where the cooler heads are needed.
Then again, I could be wrong -- but that's why I could live on 60% of my salary before making any big changes (such as sharing the apartment with someone).
With all that said though, I don't think this thread is a reasonable place to discuss the world economy or our own financial situations, much less anyone else's
With all that said though, I don't think this thread is a reasonable place to discuss the world economy or our own financial situations, much less anyone else's
Thank you.
[unncessarily dorky and mildly misappropriated joke]Now, who wants to see unboxing pictures of my Mac Pro when I get it?! Anyone?! ANYONE?!
[/UD&MMJ]Thank you.
[unncessarily dorky and mildly misappropriated joke]Now, who wants to see unboxing pictures of my Mac Pro when I get it?! Anyone?! ANYONE?!
In the spirit of recession friendly jokes, I'd like to come over and take the photos if you don't mind.
My camera is a bit oddly shaped in that it looks an awful lot like a baseball bat, and I may or may not be wearing a ski mask.
The van with stolen plates isn't mine.
Honestly!
Sound good?
I think you've hit the nail on the head. Most people are still stuck on their memories of what has taken place recently, and for many - their entire lives. We have entered a new and profound shift in our economy that will temper our purchasing behavours for many years to come.
The best example of this - reading the tea leaves for the future - is to look at the price of Apple's stock. It has already fallen significantly from its highs of $195 to the low 80s. It's current weakening running down pattern appears to be a set up for a very large drop to the downside. The stock is telling you something about the future. Insiders, privy to more long range, and better information are selling the stock at every opportunity now.
Why?
They clearly see the shift in the market taking place. The public only sees the recent high sales and profits, the stock is always pricing in the perception of future earnings. The stock is telling us that Apple is going to be earning significantly less money going forward. The cash they are sitting on now can be burned through faster than most imagine. Even the issue of where/how their cash is parked can be a concern in this climate.
I bring this up because our assumptions of how fast new technology is going to be developed will be challenged in the years ahead with companies struggling for survival. Your own personal finances will become the overriding concern soon - not which computer you think you want to have. It might even be prudent to assess where you want to be with your hardware - and consider the issue of: should I stock up on parts for my current machine that services me well now, or wait to purchase new in a year - when suddenly my financial situation changes, the computer I'm stuck with breaks down, and now the parts are unavailable because those vendors are out of business or the parts are no longer made. You might not be able to afford moving forward, and yet you cannot fix what you have.
Maybe I'm painting too dire a picture - but the current economy can get this bad and it would be wise to consider future hardware/software in this light.
Mike
In the spirit of recession friendly jokes, I'd like to come over and take the photos if you don't mind.
My camera is a bit oddly shaped in that it looks an awful lot like a baseball bat, and I may or may not be wearing a ski mask.
The van with stolen plates isn't mine.
Honestly!
Sound good?
You stole the plates but not the van? I thought times were hard before, but man, a crook can't even make a full dishonest day's pay?
Maybe I'd be safer with a cardboard cutout of a Mac Pro...
Well I agree the people that need a MBP will get one regardless of the price.
Academia is oblivious to the effects of a recession. They simply raise tuition and fees to compensate.
Research grants are research grants.
When 7%+ of the American workforce is now unemployed, retail sales down, car industry is hurting, people worried about losing their jobs I would figure the upgrade to a faster computer maybe delayed for months.
Academia is oblivious to the effects of a recession. They simply raise tuition and fees to compensate.
Research grants are research grants.
When 7%+ of the American workforce is now unemployed, retail sales down, car industry is hurting, people worried about losing their jobs I would figure the upgrade to a faster computer maybe delayed for months.
I partially agree with this comment. Reading about financial issues is different than actually living it. It's like saying I know what killing people is like because I've read about it in the newspaper or I know someone that has murdered someone.
But then it also depends on what kind of life you are living at the age of 19. You can't assume everyone has the typical life of a teenager and some do mature more quicker than others and experience things in life many people never even would in their lives.
Anyway this thread isn't really about specific living situation of members here on macrumors so I though overall this comment was uncalled for.
However I do agree about the economy going to ***** and with ddr3 memory being too expenisve I wouldn't be surprised if the new mac pros will be delayed with slight increased pricings.
It's worth pointing out that the "conventional wisdom" of the economy, what other businesses are doing and so-called realities of the computer business needn't necessarily apply to Apple. This is readily apparent if you read what many publications have to say about Apple, which makes it plainly obvious that tech analysts frequently know very little about what they're talking about. Let's not forget that the iPod was going to be a failure. Or for the older folks, the amount of doubt leveled at the GUI Apple popularized. And don't forget about that old chestnut that Apple should do a Microsoft and start selling software instead of hardware. Many, many people have said that Apple has to do things a certain way and turned out to be very wrong in retrospect.
Given the degree to which Apple has demonstrated the premium we're willing to pay on their hardware, a premium which has wholly substantiated itself over my lifetime of buying their computers and virtually never needing to fix them, Apple will jack up the prices in line with what components cost without a second thought. It's also worth pointing out that their pro gear is often considered (at least at the time of introduction) to have competitive pricing. Sure, people complain that ACDs are expensive, but in the design world, they're considered a cheaper, more low tier monitor for that kind of work. When most of the people using the Mac Pros either have a budget for them (science, R&D) or can make their cost back in as little as single job (Design, Photography, Film, Audio), one must conclude that the world recession will have little effect on the working professionals who use their machines.
Also: Apple's stock prices always seem a little oblivious to what's actually going on within Apple, but I guess that's good news if you want to buy some. The financial people haven't demonstrated an ability to understand how the company works, so I wouldn't make too much of that. For examples of this, read articles published in economics publications, tech publications, and various pundits musings on apple. It's like getting hit with a bucket full of stupid.
Given the degree to which Apple has demonstrated the premium we're willing to pay on their hardware, a premium which has wholly substantiated itself over my lifetime of buying their computers and virtually never needing to fix them, Apple will jack up the prices in line with what components cost without a second thought. It's also worth pointing out that their pro gear is often considered (at least at the time of introduction) to have competitive pricing. Sure, people complain that ACDs are expensive, but in the design world, they're considered a cheaper, more low tier monitor for that kind of work. When most of the people using the Mac Pros either have a budget for them (science, R&D) or can make their cost back in as little as single job (Design, Photography, Film, Audio), one must conclude that the world recession will have little effect on the working professionals who use their machines.
Also: Apple's stock prices always seem a little oblivious to what's actually going on within Apple, but I guess that's good news if you want to buy some. The financial people haven't demonstrated an ability to understand how the company works, so I wouldn't make too much of that. For examples of this, read articles published in economics publications, tech publications, and various pundits musings on apple. It's like getting hit with a bucket full of stupid.
Perhaps true, regarding stockpile of mainstream vs server at a micro level but have to look at the bigger picture. As an industry whole, PC/Notebook and Server sales have declined (search Gartner/IDC reports) in Q3. Server sales were expected a boost in 2008 due to Win Server 2008 as majority of Win servers are still running Server 2000. Intel probably expected strong sales of Xeon chips and were quite optimistic in their Q4 '07 earnings report for 2008 and now holding loads of stockpile as PC Vendors have cut back on orders current Xeon chips are here to stay a little longer. But totally I agree on your first statement.
At the end of the day, spending / budget cuts are likely to tighten up. Funds will stop flowing into projects and end up being put on the sidelines. But that's besides the point.
Even if one has the money right now to purchase, don't expect it to buy anything (next MP) anytime soon. That's all. We will learn more come Wed Jan 21 when Apple releases their Q1 09. But based on Intel's business outlook for 2009, it doesn't look all that good in terms of timely release of new products to the market. http://www.intc.com/common/download...-8de6ba944854&filename=Q408BusinessUpdate.pdf
Anyways, this is not in the control of Apple. Looking at Q4 08 earnings of Apple, total Desktop (incl iMac, Mini, MP, PowerMac and Xserve) units sold was 936k vs 943k (-1% var). Assuming 10% of units come from MP/Xserve, that's only 93k units worldwide. If looking at Worldwide server sales in Q3 2008 (Gartner) total 1.6 mil units sold by IBM, HP & Dell. I wonder who has a bigger influence on Intel on server components....Apple or the others?
Who knows, Apple and Intel are supposedly joint at the hips.