taken from dougbest.net/wordpress/
Even if you arent a rabid Apple fanboy like me, its been hard to ignore recent media attention swirling around the rumored Apple tablet. Described as essentially a large (10-inch diagonal screen) iPod Touch, with a launch date ranging from September to early 2010, this device is either going to be a total flop or bigger than the iPhone, the Beatles, and Jesus combined (depending on which so-called journalist you listen to).
Its known that Apple has been exploring this form factor. A proposed device running a mobile version of Safari, internally referred to as Safari Pad, was judged, several years ago, to be not-ready-for-prime-time, but served as Steve Jobs inspiration, in shrunken form, for the iPhone. And lets not forget, the Apple Newton of the 1990s essentially created the tablet form factor.
But therein lies the problem. The Newton, a technical marvel with devoted followers, was nonetheless a financial flop. Too costly, and with an undefined target market, it came to represent an Apple that had lost focus and discipline.
Others had similar lack of success with the tablet form factor. The nascent hand-held computing market of the 90s seemed to split into two directions PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants) such as the Palm Pilot, and larger tablet computers, which were laptops without the keyboard, using a stylus for input. Palm, a dotcom darling, is now on life support, as the humble cellphone morphed into the smartphone and made the term PDA an anachronism. And tablets have been nothing but a black hole for computer makers to throw money into. It turns out a resource-hungry operating system designed for keyboard input (Windows) provides a less than satisfactory experience in tablet form.
But more important, there has simply been no compelling reason to use a tablet. Need to surf or type? Get a laptop. Need to check email or text? Get a smartphone. Need to crunch numbers or design? Go back to the office. Want to listen to music? Pull out your iPod.
But it turns out the tablet computing market was stealthily redefined with its first smash hit product a couple years ago, and nobody realized it. The first wildly successful tablet computer, with a powerful, robust operating system designed specifically for tablet computing and touch input, was the iPhone, of course. And it was followed closely by the iPod Touch.
Since the introduction of the iPhone, Palm, Nokia, Samsung, RIM, HTC and others have had multiple failures in their attempts to create a touch-based smartphone to even compete with the iPhone. Apple, meanwhile, is about to supersede themselves again with the introduction of their tablet.
Lets take a moment to discuss where this tablet fits in Apples product lineup. Recently Apple has populated its MacBook Pro lineup with a 13″ inch model and lower prices, leaving the old, now cannabalized, plastic MacBook to languish in neglect. Clearly, the moniker MacBook is about to be up for grabs, and the new tablet will indeed be called the MacBook, and the plastic laptop laid to rest.
The price point for the new MacBook is a matter of much speculation. $399 or below seems very unlikely as it competes too closely with the iPod Touch, but some pundits feel its necessary to compete with the netbook market, which they argue the new MacBook was designed to faceoff against. A MacBook with 3G, and a subsidized price achieved by a two-year carrier contract, brings this into the realm of possibility. But I judge this scenario unlikely. There is a significant audience interested in a tablet MacBook without 3G, and Apple has probably judged, rightly so, that people will simply pay more for a tablet MacBook.
So, lets speculate on a $499 - $699 price range. This still leaves a hole in Apples lineup between the $699 MacBook and $1199 MacBook Pro. This gap is soon to be filled be a refreshed and repositioned MacBook Air.
When the MacBook Air debuted in January, 2008, the netbook market and terminology itself was brand new, having emerged in fall 2007 with the tiny Asustek Eee PC, priced starting at $199. Clearly, when the MacBook Air was being developed, the fruition of the netbook market was not accurately foreseen, and paying a premium for a lightweight, thin, ultra-portable laptop still seemed reasonable. And to a degree, it was - the MacBook Air sold well and received positive reviews. Unlike a typical netbook, there were little or no performance or usability compromises - it had adequate horsepower, a fantastic keyboard, bright, crisp display, incredible design, and was of sturdy manufacture. But its sales have slacked as Apple has failed to refresh it, and despite price drops, it remains, for now, a bench-warmer.
Let us imagine a new MacBook Air. Flash drive only, as the component cost of SSDs has dropped precipitously. With an 11″ or 12″ screen and even thinner enclosure it will be even lighter and more portable, and sufficiently differentiated from the 13″ MacBook Pro. Technical specs will otherwise be low-end, enabling a $799 - $999 price point.
Still not a competitor with a $299 netbook, you say? Listen, Apple is not interested in competing in the $299 netbook market. Those products are of poor quality and performance with razor-thin profit margins, and appeal to consumers who target price only. This is not where Apple competes. There is not only no advantage for Apple to enter the $299 netbook market; there is no demand.
So we return to the new, tablet MacBook. Rather than launch a tablet as simply a hardware product and hope it succeeds, Apple has certainly developed a new, killer feature for this tablet. Perhaps more than one. I shall elaborate.
Industry insiders have revealed that Apple and the music labels have been in discussions to develop a new, digital album format for iTunes only. When you purchase the whole album, it includes an interactive, multimedia booklet with lyrics, artist interviews, music videos, GarageBand tracks, and more. This addresses the labels and artists complaints that iTunes has killed the album format. Never mind that the music industry devolved to a singles format long ago, and an entire album of worthwhile songs is difficult to find.
Movies, also, will now come with extras, bonus features, commentary, and more.
The perfect medium for digesting all this new media? The MacBook, of course.
The new MacBook is NOT going to be launched as a specific e-book reader. Such apps for the iPhone already exist, and no doubt will for the new MacBook. But this is not a killer feature. As Steve Jobs noted some time ago, people dont read anymore.
At least, not books. I am now going to share a previously unknown killer feature of the new MacBook.
Magazines. Digital magazines. Subscribe or buy single issues through iTunes. Much more than just HTML or PDFs, these will also use the interactive digital booklet format Apple has invented. This format supports excellent design and graphic features, hyperlinks, animation and video, live updates and much more.
This will revolutionize the publication industry. The cost of printing and distribution will disappear. An entirely new revenue stream for advertising will be invented. The iTunes Store will offer increased visibility and a great marketing opportunity. Content-rich publications will be available as you sit in the doctors office or on the beach.
Similar to the manner in which the combination of podcasts and iTunes allowed anyone to broadcast to an audience of millions for what could be no cost at all, the periodical publishing world will now be open to all comers. If you have the chutzpah and the chops, you, too, can soon be a magazine publisher.
You heard it from me first.
Oh Yeah. And New Mac Pros, Too.
SIX YEARS!!!!! SIX LONG, GRIEVOUS, WAITING YEARS!!!
Thats how long its been since Apples tower enclosure has been redesigned. To put that in perspective, thats when iMacs came with a 15″ screen on an aluminum arm attached to a semi-spherical base. And iPods, available in white only, maxed out at 30GB and did not yet have color screens or the clickwheel. The iBook still featured a G3 processor, and the Mac Mini and Apple TV were not yet even sparkles in Steve Jobs eyes.
In technology terms, 6 years is an Ice Age ago. But the Mac Pro is scarcely talked about. It is a beast of a machine with a dedicated following and strong sales in the graphics market. Apple has regularly updated its specs, which are impressive. It has a premium price and a premium profit. The enclosure, I suppose, still looks great. Its unique and formidable. And large. Very large.
Apple is about to address all of that, with a new enclosure for the Mac Pro. Its going to be smaller in every dimension. Optical drives, whose width had limited how narrow the Mac Pro could be, have been turned to a vertical orientation, so even with two SuperDrives it is substantially narrower across the front. They are slot-loading, like MacBook Pros. The beveled theme of the MacBook Pros has been incorporated, along with the black-accents-on-silver theme. In fact, an all-black, aluminum enclosure is being considered. Compared to current dimensions of 20″ high x 8″ wide x 19″ deep, look for something less then 5″ wide and a height and depth of apprx. 16″.
Its possible some of this reduction comes at the expense of full-length PCI slots and drive bays, and that this new enclosure represents something the pundits have been clamoring for for years - an affordable, mid-level tower. For someone not interested in a portable, but who needs more than an iMac without dropping $2500 at minimum on a tower, this would be the Holy Grail.
Starting at perhaps $1799 it may increase sales of desktops without eating into sales of iMacs. The likely target of this model/price point, however, is the graphic professional - big design studios that buy dozens of these at a time, but have been hit hard by the recession and have put new technology purchases on hold, long-term. Their spending habits and technology budgets have changed, for the long haul, and spending $3,000-$4,000 per new workstation is not feasible anymore. Apple needs to get these customers spending again and investing in new Apple technology. They believe a new Mac Pro with lower entry level is the way to do it.
If the size reduction was, in fact, achieved by a purging of slots and bays, then the Mac Pro is almost certain to be split into TWO form factors: the new, smaller enclosure, and an enclosure of similar size to todays, with all the slots and bays, but cosmetically redesigned as well.
