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This is actually what I suspect.

The 11in MBA is likely toast. For those that want that level of portability the MB is it, and it may be viable with a Skylake based Core-M. I suspect, and hope, we will see a 14-15in MBA.

A Retina MBA with Thunderbolt 3 would get me to drop money right now. I sold my MBA a few years ago in anticipating a rMBA... I've been without a personal Apple laptop since. But because I see so much potential in the Skylake platform, everything from Thunderbolt 3 for external GPUs and even wireless charging (yes Skylake is capable of wireless charging!!!) there is no way I'm surviving the next year without buying a new laptop. I hope its Apple that delivers the compelling machine but if not... there are some pretty sweet laptops on the market that will get the Skylake touch.

I think it's highly unlikely that Apple will develop the Air any further beyond a processor upgrade with Skylake before it's removed altogether sometime late 2016 or early 2017. Maybe they keep it around without upgrades for another year, like the cMBP a few years back. Apple's not going to abandon the rMB platform they just introduced; they will probably expand it to fill in the gaps. My bet is that a 14" version will be released with 2 USB-C ports (with Thunderbolt included) next spring with Skylake, and a budget 12" version with lower RAM and storage options.
 
They don't want to breathe new life into the MBA line, otherwise, they would have included a ForceTouch TrackPad on the early 2015 update.
Think of it as the classical MacBook Pro, it's still for sale for people who want an entry-level MacBook Pro. The Air will be the entry-level ultraportable, until the 12" MacBook can be sold cheap enough to replace it.

I would be one of the first to buy a Retina MacBook Air, even for a price premium over the current one, as it's the computer I've been waiting since 2012. But it's just not gonna happen…
 
What if Apple were to release the 13" Air with a FHD 1920 x 1080 IPS display rather than a retina screen? Would that breath new life in to the MBA line without affecting battery life?

Apple almost certainly considered and rejected that before sinking a ton of R&D into the rMB. I wouldn't hold my breath.
 
As much as I would love a redesigned MacBook Air 13 along the lines of the Dell XPS 13 2015, I don't think it will happen.

The MBA will probably become even cheaper, and be the entry level Mac.

The rMBP will however, probably get lighter and thinner, maybe even seeing a redesign with sky lake.
 
What if Apple were to release the 13" Air with a FHD 1920 x 1080 IPS display rather than a retina screen? Would that breath new life in to the MBA line without affecting battery life?

Nope. Apple are moving towards retina displays, they won't go half way with the MBA. It's all or nothing.

My feeling is that there will actually be a rMBA introduced next year. Why? There's still a market for a thin, light and powerful ultrabook (more powerful than the rMB with it's Core M processor). There would also be a noticeable gap in the line up between the rMB and rMBP.

The issue I see is price. I can't see Apple pricing a rMBA lower than the rMB - so something has to give - that will be the 11" model.

So I think once introduced, the rMBA will fit into the existing product line like this:

rMB 12" US$1199 ($100 less than today)
rMBA 13" US$1299 ($100 more than today)
rMBP 13" US$1299 (same as today)

The choice between the rMBA and rMBP is the choice between portability and power and ports, with the rMBP obviously benefiting from the latter two.

I'd expect the rMB to eventually drop to $US999 (maybe an 10-11" version?) to fill the gap of the discontinued 11" MBA.
 
rMB - its a lightweight toy that looks good but without power or ports, unless you use it for reading mail or browsing the net, aka casual usage, you need something else.
rMBP - cost too much for most ppl, but at list got the extra power and the ports if you're planing to work with it.
rMBA (with thinner bezel) - the perfect balance between portability, power, battery life and price!

Sign me up for fully loaded 13" rMBA.
 
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I can't help but laugh at people thinking the Y(M) CPU's will replace the U series processors. For every revision Y gets U will also get.

Is breaks down quite easily:
Y = simple "blogging" tasks, light Office use
U = Those +heavy office use and the ability to do mild photo/video editing/rendering and gaming
(forget the letter for the next line up) = aimed @ more heavy need for portable video/photo/gaming


Also as the CPU's get faster the software will also get more demanding. I mean try running today's web on a 5yr old PC. Even some websites will lag with all the scripting they have, let alone actual desktop software.

My biggest issue with the rMB is the performance per $. you pay more than an Air for less battery, slower CPU, worse webcam, but you get a better screen. To a power user or a person that is not often near a power plug those are HUGE downgrades in a machine that costs more.
 
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Nope. Apple are moving towards retina displays, they won't go half way with the MBA. It's all or nothing.

My feeling is that there will actually be a rMBA introduced next year. Why? There's still a market for a thin, light and powerful ultrabook (more powerful than the rMB with it's Core M processor). There would also be a noticeable gap in the line up between the rMB and rMBP.

The choice between the rMBA and rMBP is the choice between portability and power and ports, with the rMBP obviously benefiting from the latter two.

I'd expect the rMB to eventually drop to $US999 (maybe an 10-11" version?) to fill the gap of the discontinued 11" MBA.

Can't help but address some of your points here.

First, a supposed rMBA as you describe basically IS the rMBP. The only difference of consequence is one less Thunderbolt port and no HDMI port on the Air, plus the slower processor. Then you're going to need a bigger battery for that Retina screen, and with it a larger chassis. Unless you want reduced battery life, which I doubt Apple would do. So the gap you describe between the Air and Pro is really pretty minimal if you give the Air a Retina screen. Apple usually doesn't do product overlap, especially in their computer lines, hence the clear distinctions between the Mini, iMac, and Mac Pro; same applies to their laptop lines.

Second, if you look at the physical dimensions of the new rMB, it's smaller in every way than the 11" Air other than being 1/4" deeper. Instead of Apple building a new, even smaller chassis (with an even smaller battery???) they could just make a bargain 12" rMB with less RAM and a smaller SSD, possibly to get the price down to that magical sub-$1K.

Check out my post at the top of this page: I see only 2 Apple laptop series within a year or two from now: 12" and 14" Macbook and 14" and 16" Macbook Pro. The Air might get Skylake and hang around into 2017 at most.

If Apple was going to upgrade the Air, they would have done so by now. The new Macbook and a redesigned Pro are the future.

IMHO.
 
...
So I think once introduced, the rMBA will fit into the existing product line like this:

rMB 12" US$1199 ($100 less than today)
rMBA 13" US$1299 ($100 more than today)
rMBP 13" US$1299 (same as today)
...

So you think Apple will sell a product called "Air" that's bigger and heavier than the non-Air product, at the same price point as a more capable laptop that's only marginally bigger?

I won't hold my breath.
 
So I think once introduced, the rMBA will fit into the existing product line like this:

rMB 12" US$1199 ($100 less than today)
rMBA 13" US$1299 ($100 more than today)
rMBP 13" US$1299 (same as today)

Nah. MBAs and rMBPs all received $200-300 price reduction at 1-year anniversary of their introduction ($300 for MBA, $200 for 13 and 15" rMBP).

When rMB falls to $1099 or $999, I just don't see much room for rMBA. It is also speculated that rMBP will get a redesign also, which could put a nail in MBA's coffin for good (13" rMBP probably will become thinner and lighter).
 
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