I don't think anyone knows how much heat the next generation Mxx chips will generate and need to be dissipated. And
Intel processors are quite inefficient when compared to Apple Silicon.
The Intel Air was infamous for getting hot, being slow, and ramping up its fan in seconds. Now the M1 Air runs that same tasks many times faster (rivaling the i9 in the 16" MBP in many), doesn't need a fan, and runs cool (30C). Under the same load the Intel Air runs its fans full blast and still has to thermal throttle (i.e. slow down the processor clock) to keep the temps under 100C.
Well, the tasks that run faster are mostly video-related. And it makes sense because most if not all video tasks are now going through dedicated decoders/encoders rather than through the CPU. On the other hand, compile time and other tasks are similar, or if they have to go through Rosetta 2, then the Core i9 in the 16" is actually better by a good amount.
And of course, anything graphics related is still far better on the 16".
But that's my concern as well. That next Mx chip might need to match the graphics horsepower of the 16" MacBook, and... while I have no doubt that it'll run cooler than the 16" MacBook, it may not be as cool as M1, since we are talking about at least 3-4x more graphics horsepower here.
I don't want to make any premature prediction, but it's pretty logical to assume that a mythical chip that runs faster than M1 should theoretically also run hotter.
I have run the same apps, same youtube video and same tabs on chrome, opera and compared both
2016 runs hot and can hear the fan speed across the room.
M1 MacBook Pro runs cooler and I am not even sure if the fan is running as may be is not ON 🙂
I just wish they come up with a 15" and I am all over it.
Your usage can probably be described as "light". In that case, I don't think you'll see much of a point to a much more powerful machine.
For myself, I can very easily max out the CPU with compile tasks and/or doing graphics shaders. M1 has a very fast CPU, but the GPU is... well, just okay. I'd guess slightly better than Intel's best graphics options now (note that 11th gen Intel graphics is actually quite good), but still nothing compared to the 16" MacBook Pro to be honest.