Not to downplay both sides, however this issue or question was brought up to an infection specialist and this was their response (non-verbatim):
Though the number of infected and victims of 2019-nCoV, we have to remember that as the present infected is "small" the percentage seems large, however as more are infected (unfortunately) the percentage will be adjusted and will actually see a drop.
For example if you compare the percentage of people infected with the cold/flu annually on a Global scale compared to 2019-nCoV comparison on a scale that is not Global then the numbers and percentage tells a different story.
2019-nCoV infection and death plus there have been recoveries too, is still quite low on a Global scale. This is all precaution as most of the world manufacturers in China and to some degree the media seems to be overreacting. It is serious similar to other prior outbreaks but not what it is being made out to be, remember there have been recoveries too but those are not being reported similar to the death and infected that adds a level of fear for media ratings.
Hi
I think the number of infected is actually quite high.
The tests take a long time to do and are time consuming. A lot of people in China are scared and they have other infections to deal with like seasonal flu. We've seen pictures of the hospitals swamped with worried people.
Everyone that shows symptoms needs to be tested which will be thousands and most of those will be negative, but how many tests can they physically do a day? What's the backlog.
The official figures are based on the results they have from the tests they have done but it says nothing about the backlog of thousands of tests they haven't managed to do yet.
Plus, even though the hospitals are swamped, we are talking about an area of 50 million people (bigger now) and personally, the last place I'd want to be if I were there would be queueing in a hospital for hours with thousands of sick people some of whom have the virus for sure. It must be one of the main centres of infection right now.
So I think it's safe to say a lot of people are infected, a lot of people have it mildly, a lot of people are keeping away from the hospitals now and unless the Chinese are hiding the number of deaths, the death to infection rate isn't as high as the official figures.
Seasonal flu has an RO (infection rate) of about 1.4 meaning 1.4 people infected for each case. This may be about the same but even the WHO is saying it won't be as bad as 2.5 (which would make it the same as SARS)
Measles for example has an RO of about 15. Mumps about 12, Whooping cough about 14 and they all have similar death rates to this virus (between 1-2.5% so get your kids vaccinated)
Smallpox was about 6 but had a mortality rate of 10%
Tuberculosis has an RO of 10 and a mortality rate of 50%
Pneumonic plague was about RO3 but mortality almost 100%
[automerge]1580712445[/automerge]
It’s too early to know exactly what the scope of the Coronavirus will be, but this graphic estimates the range of lethality and how contagious the virus is compared to others, based on what is currently known.
View attachment 892091
Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result.
www.nytimes.com
I didn't see that I was quoting similiar figures sorry.
