Mini iPad, how much impact on iPad and Android sales? Opinions.

Discussion in 'iPad' started by PracticalMac, Jul 13, 2012.

  1. PracticalMac macrumors 68030

    PracticalMac

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    #1
    Read first

    ASSUMING a Mini iPad will be released in Sept-Oct time frame:

    Just in time for Christmas season, it will do extremely well (remember Fire sold about 4 million before crumbling when most finally realized it was less then expected).

    Particular to note a lot of people in MR posted they purchased a Fire even though they already had iPad.

    I predict Apple will sell 5 to 7 million Mini's over 4 months (Sept to Dec).

    First time iOS customer will really jump on it, becuase of its lower initial cost and of those with existing iPad's will be likely the iPad 1's, and families looking to get a second or third iPad in home.
    Those who have the 2, or 3ed gen, least likely.

    Those used to full size iPad will mixed reaction to something almost 2" smaller, but first timers will jump on it.
    Highly mobile people will love it too, as even the 10" iPad can still be too big.

    I predict the Mini may take away about 12% of big iPad market, a little more according to Gene Munster, however about 40% of Android market.

    Why 40% of Android market? John Gruber and especially Rene Ritchie posted very insightful and researched opinions why a 7.85" size will not require sandpaper (for fingers). Rene pointed out that compared to all the other offerings, the mini iPad will have substantially more screen space.
    The look and feel may be more like full size iPad then a smaller one.

    Again, look at the hype behind the Fire. For a brief time it shot up to #1, blew past then #1 Samsung and opened up a large lead,... until the hype passed and crashed hard.
    The Mini has had months of hype and speculation.
    Apple is the standard for reputation and quality.
    If, as Rene so thoroughly explains, apps do not need to be altered to run on the min then there is a massive library of apps ready to run.


    Price:
    It seems $299 is the likely price point, being in between iPod Touch and iPad 2(v2), but some analysis say Apple could sell it for as little as $199 and still make a profit!
    With the new Nexus 7 at $199, and Fire likely to drop to $149, perhaps the best strategy not to stay too premium, but offer more to compensate.
    Selling iPad Mini at $299, starting with 32GB would be blow away Fire and Nexus with a paltry 8GB, it would also mean changing price structure on iPT and iPad too.

    Perhaps the best would be a $249 w/16Gb Mini (and the iPT drop to $149 w/8GB?). Remember, the Mini is to target the unopposed small Android tablets, not iPad. As I pointed out before, those who have iPad's will mostly stay with iPad and only a small number will need the Mini. And of course the reason small tables are so popular is, becuase its smaller, is lower price.


    Note: to those who keep saying it should be a "Big iPod Touch", I have all 3, and there is a huge difference to how a iPT/iPhone and iPad work, and as Android proved, scaling up is miserable.
     
  2. nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #2
    Market devastation.


    Just the rumor of a iPad mini is going to have many people skipping the Nexus 7 and waiting to see if they can get what they want. A smaller cheaper iPad.

    Families that are tired of sharing an iPad will be all over this.

    Education will love them

    Business will love them

    Gaming will be more important with second screen opportunities.
     
  3. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #3
    I think that that a 7"-8" iPad would have the biggest effect on the 7" Android tablets like the Kindle Fire, Nexus 7, Samsung etc.
     
  4. koigirl macrumors 6502a

    koigirl

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  5. Rodster macrumors 68040

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    #5
    I say minimal impact on either side. Android is different to iOS and iOS is different to Android. ;)
     
  6. knucklehead macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    Great post, and great links!

    I tend to agree with nukinfutz, even if I'm bothered by the one ecosystem planetary ecology that it points to.
     
  7. Roy G Biv macrumors 6502

    Roy G Biv

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    #7
    Black guys

    When the first iPad released, I saw a picture of a rapper wearing an iPad like a necklace with his name (I think?) on the screen. Totally blingin'.

    With a smaller, cheaper iPad, ethnic men everywhere will be able to purchase an iPad as a display of their vanity which does not greatly strain their wallets or their necks. It will sell in the billions.
     
  8. J&JPolangin macrumors 68030

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    #8
    My Android HTC Evo 4G phone came with a free Samsung 7" tablet and I have an original iPad and a "new" iPad = I'd still probably also get a 7" iPad as a 2nd or 3rd gen device once they do come out = depending on the hardware :apple: uses in the "original" 7" iPad...

    After having my two Android devices, I just haven't taken to them like I have with iOS...they aren't bad devices but they aren't great either...
     
  9. PracticalMac thread starter macrumors 68030

    PracticalMac

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    #9
    Thanks!

    Takes a lot of work get a post right in MR, I must be close! :)
     
  10. nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #10
    When:


    Bloomberg
    WSJ
    NY Times

    All take iPad mini rumors mainstream it means that those that don't want to wait will buy current 7" models and those that prefer iPads will wait.
     
  11. eastercat macrumors 68040

    eastercat

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    The success partially depends on the cost. IMO, part of ipad's success is based on the fact that it is competitive on cost. Usually, its competitors tend to be more expensive or offer less for the same price.

    I'm not sure if apple can release a 7" similar in cost to the nexus. Apple believes in the power of the profit margin and isn't interested in losing money. If they release a mini, it's likely to be more expensive than the current competition. For people who want the cheapest tablet or are looking for holiday gifts, they'll buy the fire or nexus.

    The mini's ability to take away sales depends on how competitive its price is and how close in pricing it is to the ipad.

    Since we can't look at pricing sheets, this kind of speculation is pointless.
     
  12. rowspaxe macrumors 68000

    rowspaxe

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    #12
    mini ipad = big phone

    The smaller tablets will stake out a significant market share, but i dont see and apple 7" changing the market dynamics much. People tend to look at the tablet market monolithically, but its really a composite of submarkets. The movies/gaming/light eread crowd is most likely to be peeled off by the 7", whilethe content creation types will stay with the current form factor or migrate to larger x86 tabs as tehy come online. Seems iike win-win to me--why are people so agitated about this.
     
  13. PracticalMac thread starter macrumors 68030

    PracticalMac

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    #13
    Good thought. Of course some will be tied to a specific design for their needs, but how small, or big, is that crowd?

    Then again, the iPad may be a better gaming platform, and perhaps the small iPad will be more popular in that regard.
     
  14. gpat macrumors 6502a

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  15. BFizzzle macrumors 68020

    BFizzzle

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    #15
    im still not sure if they will actually release a mini. remember how sure everyone was about the iphone 5 before the 4s launch? The 5 and a cheaper iphone was expected. WSJ bloomberg etc all covered the stories just like they are doing now with the Mini. They had cases and leaked parts as well.

    Not much longer and time will tell!
     
  16. PracticalMac thread starter macrumors 68030

    PracticalMac

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    #16
  17. nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #17
    I think an iPad mini is going to KILL it Holiday qtr.

    When you have $500 iPads flying like the door like they sprouted iWings we can only imagine what a $250 device will do.

    I see people ordering these things like extra value meals.

    "Yeah ah...give me that Apple TV and throw in a few iPad mini"
     
  18. Slivortal macrumors 6502

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    #18
    If Apple prices these things at $300 or under, they will literally FLY off the shelves. $500 is often a bit too high for a holiday gift, but $300 and under is pretty much right on target.
     
  19. dchao macrumors 6502a

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    #19
    Even at $300, it will make no difference. Android users are pretty die-hard too. I have never met any Android user who will even consider switching to Apple. iOS and Android are catering for the different markets, and there is very little cross over.
     
  20. nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #20
    The less fanatical fans on both platforms have no problem leaving. I've seen plenty of old Android phones get turned in and enough iPhones to know that each platform cannot impress them all.
     
  21. urkel macrumors 68030

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    #21
    I think that people who surround themselves with Pro-Apple forums and friends have become jaded as to what the real world is like.

    The iPhone is available on all US carriers so why is Android still taking a significant marketshare? Maybe people out here should start considering that people aren't choosing Android purely for a bargain, they choose Android because it's their personal preference.
     
  22. B777Forevar macrumors 6502a

    B777Forevar

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    #22
    Anything made and marketed by Apple will sell millions.
     
  23. nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #23
    Poor RIM and Microsoft. Apple's fortunes (and smartphone sales) continue to rise. Android is getting buried under an avalanche of patents and lawsuits. Things really couldn't be better for iOS.

    Microsoft better come in and reclaim their turf or this game will be over in a couple of years. Apple has 117 BILLION in the bank.
     
  24. Slivortal macrumors 6502

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    #24
    This. If Apple doesn't produce a tablet for $300 or less by the end of Q4, I'm probably going to get Nexus 7, just for the price point alone.
     
  25. dchao macrumors 6502a

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    #25
    Apple has given up fighting MS in their own turf, it's the post-PC era now.
     

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