Re: Re: IBM is also losing money on chip fabrication
Originally posted by shadowself
IBM may be losing money on its own chip (POWER4 & POWER5) runs. However, IBM is turning the corner on all its fab lines as it is supplying chips for many customers and as of late this past summer solved virtually all of its production problems. Its biggest problem right now is keeping the fab lines fully utilized.
Not keeping the fab lines fully utilized translates into losing money. Meanwhile, Intel is making sh*tloads of money. In fact Intel's total revenue from chip manufacturing is equal to about the next four biggest chip makers put together.
As for the Itanium putting pressure on the POWER chips... since when? The POWER5 is/will be better than any Itanium which comes out in the same time frame. All the top systems being installed over the next 2 years or so are planned on being POWER5 based. I know of none -- absolutely none -- of the top systems which will be Itanium based.
IBM is the only company that will be selling a POWER5 computer.
HP, Dell and IBM all will be selling Itanium based computers. It will be very difficult for IBM's POWER chips to match the potential sales that Intel can make with the Itanium line.
Intel sells a Itanium chip for a top price of about $4,000 now. In about three years Intel will sell a Itanium chip that has 4 or more processors on a chip for probably $4,000. That's $1,000 per processor. Intel plans to up that to about 8 Itanium processors per chip, which would be about $500 per processor. That price squeeze will be difficult for IBM to counter with the Power5 chip. The performance difference between the Power and Itanium chips will not justify IBM charging up to $10,000 per processor in a computer as the company does now.
As for the long term of IBM's chip fab business being "cloudy"... that is 100% FUD. IBM is the only company with its own synchrotron light source. IBM has been experimenting with that type of source since before 1985. (They may have been doing it before them. I just spent some time with them in 85/86.) Others (including Intel) have been experiementing too, but for a much shorter time frame. Want to go smaller than 65 nm? Then you MUST get into this type of source. IBM has a huge lead in experience here. Intel and others will undoubtedly catch up, but it will take them A LOT of time. For at least 5-8 years I don't expect to see the competitors where IBM is with very short wavelength systems.
IBM was supposed to be way ahead in strained silicon technology too. Low and behold Intel is coming out with strained silicon at the .90nm process size long before IBM will on a 65nm process.
Intel uses new technologies when there is a cost benefit to use it. They have yet to utilized SOI because of its lack of a beneficial cost/performance ratio at this time.
As of today, IBM's chip future is as sound as anyone else's -- even Intel's.
IBM has been losing money from the chip manufacturing business for quite some time and Intel is making loads of money. That translates much more capital expenditures for Intel and faster chip development.
In 10 or 15 years who knows? But until then, stating that IBM's chip future is cloudy is ludicrous.
Where is IBM going to get the money to keep pace with Intel in chip manufacturing? Or for that matter how is IBM going to keep pace with Intel in advancing the speed of a given chip design when IBM is losing buckets of money on chip manufacturing and Intel is making boatloads of money?