Nano Generation 2

OK,
So I am now thinking of getting a Nano g2. Hopfully I can get one cheap!
I have never had an iPod before. This would be my first.
I want the little nano because I can use it at the gym. I think the Shuffle is a bit junky.

So, here is my question for the apple/ipod folks.
Currently I could get a
Refurbished iPod nano, 2GB for 99
http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APP...owse&mco=EC0F3C63&node=home/specialdeals/ipod

too much.

Now that the nano generation 3 is here. priced at.
4GB - $149, 8GB - $199.

What do people think the Refurbished prices will be?
I think $49 is a good price. But willing to pay $59
think these prices are possible?

Do you think resellers will be willing to dump new 2 generation nano's cheap?
How cheap?

thanks