It’s always 15% off
So then my guess it will be $1999? From the new price of $2399?
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Maybe. The check may be cosmetic and cursory and not as detailed as an owner might make. I wouldn't bet on anything.
2017 refurb prices already dropped when the 2018s came out. Their pricing will remain below the 2018 refurb prices when those models hit the refurb store.
Consider that Apple will charge sales tax when ordering from the Apple refurb store. Alternately, you can order from Adorama or B&H at about $150 off retail at the moment, and not pay sales tax unless you're in NY or NJ or your state currently requires/enforces it. Alternately order from Apple's online education store at $150 off, and get free Beats headphones -- which you could resell if you didn't find value in them for yourself.
There's nothing wrong with Apple refurbs, but you have enough other options that IMHO there's not much reason to wait for the refurb store 2018s and zero reason to buy a 2016/2017 at this point.
Well here's the thing, I'm concerned what if it gives problems like the one I got from Best Buy and then what? Would rather stick with Apple directly (or Best Buy)