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New 16in purchase - advice

B

bdart2

macrumors member
Original poster
Oct 29, 2014
46
8
I just bought my second Mac ever last week. I bought the 8 core 16in on sale from Costco. I love it so far.

But with the new ARM announcement rumors, is there a chance that this new MBP won’t last me for the 7 years I hoped for in terms of updates and support.

sorry if this is vague and you need my use case, etc.
 
I wouldn't even think about the arm announcement yet. It's going to be awhile regardless. You'll see it in the lower end notebooks first. Enjoy your 16 inch its a fantastic machine.
 
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Transitioning to ARM architecture is going to be a major switch for Apple and the way some apps function. It's going to take some time for the app ecosystem to be fully mature and compatible.
 
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You'll probably still get a couple years of support. They aren't going to just drop the devices the day of the announcement. As a point of reference, in the PowerPC to Intel transition that was announced in 2005 and hardware started coming out in 2006. It wasn't till MacOS Snow Leopard in 2009 that MacOS dropped support for PowerPC machines, Snow Leopard also still had PowerPC software emulation. MacOS Lion in 2011 is when PowerPC and PowerPC softwares were completely dropped.

Continuing the example, Catalina supports as far back as the 2012 Macbook Pros. Next years MacOS will likely be the last MacOS update my Late 2013 15' MBP will get (assuming that one isn't ARM only). That's 8 years support. The PowerPC to Intel transition had updates for PowerPC machines from 2006 to 2011. Assuming for a moment the Intel to ARM transition pace will be similar. That 3-5 years is about what you can expect till Apple says otherwise. They aren't going to leave you hanging on day 1, but they aren't going to support you for almost a decade either.
 
DanMan619 said:
You'll probably still get a couple years of support. They aren't going to just drop the devices the day of the announcement. As a point of reference, in the PowerPC to Intel transition that was announced in 2005 and hardware started coming out in 2006. It wasn't till MacOS Snow Leopard in 2009 that MacOS dropped support for PowerPC machines, Snow Leopard also still had PowerPC software emulation. MacOS Lion in 2011 is when PowerPC and PowerPC softwares were completely dropped.

Continuing the example, Catalina supports as far back as the 2012 Macbook Pros. Next years MacOS will likely be the last MacOS update my Late 2013 15' MBP will get (assuming that one isn't ARM only). That's 8 years support. The PowerPC to Intel transition had updates for PowerPC machines from 2006 to 2011. Assuming for a moment the Intel to ARM transition pace will be similar. That 3-5 years is about what you can expect till Apple says otherwise. They aren't going to leave you hanging on day 1, but they aren't going to support you for almost a decade either.
Click to expand...
Considering I am only using El Cap on old 2012 Mac Mini maybe I shouldn’t care too much. Just trying to make sure I didn’t “waste” a few thousand dollars.
 
bdart2 said:
But with the new ARM announcement rumors, is there a chance that this new MBP won’t last me for the 7 years I hoped for in terms of updates and support.
Click to expand...

MBP usually receives support for at least five years. Afterwards, who knows. There is only about 50% chance, give it take, that your laptop will last 7 years without a major malfunction anyway. That is a very long time in computer world.
 
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Anybody else have thoughts? I feel good about keeping my new MBP. Just want some confirmation :)
 
Transitioning to a new architecture is not like flipping a switch, it will take many years for Apple to implement the rollout and for major developers to get onboard and develop ARM native applications.
 
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Can your MBP last you 7 years? Yes. Will it still be delivering the same level of performance 7 years down the road? No. I'm using a 2012 iMac, 2016 MBP and 2019 MBP at the moment. I've also had a 2013 MBP that has since failed (screen failed, no longer under warranty, opted not to fix) so -- yes, you can use hardware over a long term but honestly I don't expect any device to last 7 years but if they do I'm happy.
 
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There is a chance that after 3-4 years, many will hunt for the latest MacBook Pro model, which still had native support for Intel architecture ;)
 
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Dhock_Holiday said:
Transitioning to a new architecture is not like flipping a switch, it will take many years for Apple to implement the rollout and for major developers to get onboard and develop ARM native applications.
Click to expand...

They said they plan t be done with 2 years, which is realistic. Developing a native RAM application in many cases is as simple as clicking "build" in Xcode.
 
There is a good chance the switch will be something like the butterfly keyboard.... For several years apple kept saying it is good/better, but we all know what happened.
Good Luck Apple.
 
Suddenly my 3 week old 16 inch Macbook Pro feels.... outdated. Even though in virtually every way it's a fantastic machine.

I'd be hoping we get at least 3-5 years out of these machines without being forced to upgrade earlier.
 
Are we expecting/Do we suspect that there will be a 16" MBP update to 10th generation processors like the recent 13" update?
 
So does my 4 week old 16".

I still think it will be fully supported for a couple of years but after that it'll just be gradually dropped by developers.

It's really going to take Apple a couple of years to pull this off and even then early adopters will be in for a rough ride.

Still a bit odd to think I've purchased my last Intel MBP. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing by any means. Intel have been plateauing for several years. They've been sitting on their laurels since Sandy Bridge and have been caught out by genuine competition from Apple, AMD, even Qualcomm.
 
bdart2 said:
But with the new ARM announcement rumors, is there a chance that this new MBP won’t last me for the 7 years I hoped for in terms of updates and support.
Click to expand...

I think it is unlikely Apple will provide support that long, and third-party developers will likely drop support before Apple.
 
Here are my thoughts...I also just bought a 16" base MacBook Pro and still within my return window.

- When I bought this unit I compared the features and price against the Microsoft Surface Book 3 and Dell XPS. It is price and feature competitive. The value of these units is better than last years and one of the better choices "today"
- Unlike PowerPC that no one really used. Every other mainstream desktop app already creates an Intel version and will continue to do so. Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft, etc. all use Intel processors and AMD/Intel GPU's.
- I just read an article that an iMac and 13" are rumored to get updated first.
- I don't want to wait another year, just to try a "first edition" when I really can benefit from the updates available now.

I plan to keep my unit and enjoy. Trust that Apple will do good with backward compatibility and it will also be relatively easy for most apps. The biggest downside will be the continuity between IOS and Mac apps.
 
DanMan619 said:
You'll probably still get a couple years of support. They aren't going to just drop the devices the day of the announcement. As a point of reference, in the PowerPC to Intel transition that was announced in 2005 and hardware started coming out in 2006. It wasn't till MacOS Snow Leopard in 2009 that MacOS dropped support for PowerPC machines, Snow Leopard also still had PowerPC software emulation. MacOS Lion in 2011 is when PowerPC and PowerPC softwares were completely dropped.
Click to expand...

OS X 10.5 was last release supporting PowerPC - I know because that's what I run on my iBook G4, OS X 10.6 was refinement release for Intel only.

Given current install base I'd expect they will support Intel for at least 3-4y (no new Intel CPU's will be added and the ones out there are anyway supported today). Also the transition will be faster than they said - back in 2006 they were still depending on Intel and their roadmap, now it's all guns blazing and they are calling the shots.

Luckily I'm still on Mojave (and some older OS X versions) and don't need a new Mac right now, but given the history and Apple's obsession to control full vertical technology stack I wouldn't buy Intel based machine now unless absolutely needed. My iBook G4 and two 17" MacBook Pro from Core 2 Duo era are silent testament to the relentness march forward that Apple does and now they will be going even faster.

I wish Steve would have been here to see the last transition...
 
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yatesd said:
Here are my thoughts...I also just bought a 16" base MacBook Pro and still within my return window.

- When I bought this unit I compared the features and price against the Microsoft Surface Book 3 and Dell XPS. It is price and feature competitive. The value of these units is better than last years and one of the better choices "today"
- Unlike PowerPC that no one really used. Every other mainstream desktop app already creates an Intel version and will continue to do so. Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft, etc. all use Intel processors and AMD/Intel GPU's.
- I just read an article that an iMac and 13" are rumored to get updated first.
- I don't want to wait another year, just to try a "first edition" when I really can benefit from the updates available now.

I plan to keep my unit and enjoy. Trust that Apple will do good with backward compatibility and it will also be relatively easy for most apps. The biggest downside will be the continuity between IOS and Mac apps.
Click to expand...
I think I feel the same. I am jus trying to make sure I have a good machine that will last 5 years.

This is the first Mac I have purchased since my late 2012 Mini Which has 4GB ram and is still running El Cap. :)
 
You will get at least 2-3 OS releases on a mac that you buy today. After that you are good for another 2-3 years of daily whatever. It's not like gmail / amazon / TV shows or whatever will require much more power than now.
For professional work I can't tell but if the advantages are substantial then selling something with a "loss" is no issue. That's where I am though and I'm keeping my 2 week old 16". It will pay itself off in the next year, then I will wait a generation anyway so selling it in 2 years or so even for 35-40% cost of new machine won't bother me much.
 
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