I never got the feeling that Apple was going to release a new Mini this year when they released the M1 Mini last year. The Mini’s seem to be on a 2 year cycle so late next year makes more sense.
It's too early to say if the Mini is on a 2 year cycle yet but I can see how it might work: The A-series chip bandwagon is an annual update cycle by and large but I would have justified a 2 year cycle by saying that Apple would skip the A15 architecture and use the A16 next year as the basis for what I would logically call an M2 and that would then be used for a refresh of all M1 Macs by October next year.
And going forward the non-Pro CPUs would come from even numbered A series CPUs. It would let Apple show bigger increases between generations and possibly take the heat off.
In the meantime the M1 Pro and M1 Max CPUs seem set to go into the iMac Pro early next year - which would allow Apple to introduce new product on the in-between years - but I can't help thinking that the configuration of the MacBook Pros should be carried over into the iMac Pro - notably 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports plus sundry external ports like additional USB-A, HDMI and perhaps even SD card.
This casts a bit of design shade over the super thin AppleTV Mk1 type design reportedly for the Mini that we've seen from Jon Prosser. There are now 2 question marks over it.
1. Apple are heading into a more form-follows-function period after going too far down the Jony Ive super-thin rabbit hole for a number of years.
2. If we're only having 3 Thunderbolt 4 ports due to the M1 Pro/Max SoC then the CAD design that appears to show 4 unspecified Thunderbolt ports (too close together and in a novel vertical configuration) looks ever more like a trap designed to catch unwary leakers.
I'd say it's unlikely that Apple would fork the low-selling Mac mini to have just M2 and not M1 Pro/Max CPUs in mind.
At a first glance those 4 holes look more convincing as ventilation holes (and no intake?) but then you're left with a situation where there only appears to be 2 main ports - let's be generous and say those USB ports are actually Thunderbolt ports - with the USB-A ports deleted - plus a HDMI.
That ultra-thin sensibility would fit better as a sole successor to the M1 Mini under the old regime but you're going back to a situation where the ultra-thin design has become responsible for a loss of ports from the previous model which seems very unlikely under the direction of travel we've seen from the M1 Pro MacBook Pros. And it's a very niche product to be spending engineering resources to make a new case for, surely?
Portwise, Apple could be going down the road of the iMac 24 where you got 4 USB-C ports - where 2 were Thunderbolt and the other two were USB-C. This would make it easy to make a third one Thunderbolt where the onboard SoC allows (ie M1 Pro or M1 Max) while it might be considered to be more flexible to have a USB-C port instead of an SD port onboard to allow Apple to streamline the parts bin.
Let's clarify more.
Although the thin nature of leak casing is in part explained by having the power supply outside it still seemed strange as a Pro purchase when a large customer is the co-location guys who have designed everything around the existing (now classic) 2018 Mac mini form factor.
Currently the M1 Mini is overspecced for a cooling solution which benefits people who want ultra quiet performance because the fans apparently hardly ever turn on. Brilliant for studio work and for folks who appreciate silence.
So why would Apple then drastically reduce the size of the case, remove ports, and potentially increase the sustained noise/heat in a new Mac mini?
If the pros were being listened to then Apple would have kept the form factor the same and potentially reduce the wifi interference issues by reintroducing more polycarbonate to the design make it more radio transparent. This, however, may impact the recyclability of the case.
However, if we're still using the external iMac power brick it could offer more cooling power to the main case (allowing M1 Pro CPU to feature) but they'd have to find somewhere to stow the brick - images of colo server rooms I have seen don't appear to offer a convenient place to store these things but that's potentially less of a deal breaker than completely re-engineering the case.
Let's forget the leaks for a moment though, I'm sure professionals wanting a headless Mac would take a great deal of interest in a headless 14" MacBook Pro with all ports and options available.
The Colo guys probably wouldn't mind if Apple just delivered it in an existing Mac mini case with no redesign at all - they may not care about wireless interference as they probably turn all that stuff off. The PSU is designed to manage a 65w CPU which covers the M1 Pro/Max SoC and the backside of the mini can accommodate a third Thunderbolt 4 port as it stands while retaining the 2 USB-A ports.
There's even room for the SD card slot too if Apple chose to put one in but as per my suggestion above there's the argument where switching to 4 USB-C ports plus 2 USB-A ports and HDMI gives Apple the ability to streamline the supply chain a bit.
I'd personally suggest that there's no reason why Apple couldn't continue to use the low end M1/M2 in the same case - maybe putting some more work into sorting out the wireless issues as these users are more likely to complain about that. Unless they really are going to use some more radio transparent materials like polycarbonate in the construction while retaining the overall form factor which would be a bonus.
Let's not forget that Apple could easily make a proper Mac Pro in a small Cube style format a compelling upgrade so I could forgive them for not allowing the Mini to get the M1 Max for instance.
