Now is the best time to buy a MBP

[twanj]

Theory: Now is the best time to buy a MBP

I have a 2012 rMBP. It's been awesome, but luckily I bought Apple Care because they had to replace it twice. So, you'd think by 2015 the design was perfected as much as it could be.

Apple has seemed to go in 4 year cycles for major changes.
2009?-2012,
2012-2015, Retina MBP
2016-2019?, Touch Bar MBP
2020?-2023? ARM MBP?

2019 TB MBP SHOULD BE the best iteration of this model. We don't know how good the keyboard will hold up, but at least you'll have Apple Care (stupid to not get it) plus it's already on the keyboard replacement program.

Not waiting for the 2020 model where you're going to be a beta tester for Apple is better. You'd have to wait at least until 2021 where they work out SOME of the kinks, both software & hardware for such major changes. Hopefully the keyboard issue is solved & they're not moving backwards!

 

[LogicalApex]

The best time to buy is when you need it. Better tech is always just around the corner. So buying before you need it is never good.

We don't know how good the keyboard will hold up, but at least you'll have Apple Care (stupid to not get it) plus it's already on the keyboard replacement program.

The keyboard service program negates the need for Apple Care for keyboard issues. Apple Care may be useful for other things though.

 

[petvas]

I have the 2018 13" MBP and it works perfect (knock on wood). Always buy something when you want or/and need it. Not because something is at the end of its evolution cycle.
Reliability issues though should of course be considered when making a decision about what exactly to buy.

 

[twanj]

Reliability issues though should of course be considered when making a decision about what exactly to buy.

Unfortunately, reliability is something you really have to strongly consider with Apple lately.

 

[Jimmy James]

The very fact that OP perceives it as stupid not to get AppleCare on an already high priced laptop makes me think now is not the best time to buy an apple laptop.

 

[petvas]

Unfortunately, reliability is something you really have to strongly consider with Apple lately.

To be honest, before I bought my MacBook Pro I didn't consider it at all. If you start reading forums, then you almost always read about issues people are facing with their devices. Of course I know about the keyboard issues, but I somehow hope that they will not affect me, or if they do, I will deal with them.
I am more than happy with my MBP (for now).
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The very fact that OP perceives it as stupid not to get AppleCare on an already high priced laptop makes me think now is not the best time to buy an apple laptop.

Why should someone get Applecare for the MBP? The keyboard is covered for four years anyway. In Germany we have two years limited warranty. Applecare + gives me peace of mind but that comes at a price. I do not plan in keeping my MBP for more than three years anyway, so an Applecare seems an unattractive package for me. Applecare is good if you are not taking care your devices and you drop them a lot..

 

[StuKatz1]

2019 TB MBP SHOULD BE the best iteration of this model.
Not waiting for the 2020 model where you're going to be a beta tester for Apple is better. You'd have to wait at least until 2021 where they work out SOME of the kinks, both software & hardware for such major changes. Hopefully the keyboard issue is solved & they're not moving backwards!

Not only have you managed to contradict yourself in the span of three sentences, but your words of advice, while well-meaning, are also alarming.

The only thing more foolish “than serving as a beta tester for Apple,” as you put it, is in fact buying into something that even Apple themselves acknowledge is already broken.

Never the less, it would have made much more sense to start this thread in 6 months time or so, after the people who are “beta testing” the 2019 laptops will have owned their machines for a bit longer than 72 hours.

 

[twanj]

The very fact that OP perceives it as stupid not to get AppleCare on an already high priced laptop makes me think now is not the best time to buy an apple laptop.

Unfortunately it has been that way for the 7 years I've had and been following MBPs.

To be honest, before I bought my MacBook Pro I didn't consider it at all. If you start reading forums, then you almost always read about issues people are facing with their devices. Of course I know about the keyboard issues, but I somehow hope that they will not affect me, or if they do, I will deal with them.
I am more than happy with my MBP (for now).
[doublepost=1559494002][/doublepost]
Why should someone get Applecare for the MBP? The keyboard is covered for four years anyway. In Germany we have two years limited warranty. Applecare + gives me peace of mind but that comes at a price. I do not plan in keeping my MBP for more than three years anyway, so an Applecare seems an unattractive package for me. Applecare is good if you are not taking care your devices and you drop them a lot..

Actually, I don't think Apple Care covers drops & spills?

As stated, I needed my machine replaced twice to get a stable one in the USA.

2 years is nicer than one, so I guess it depends on if that third year of coverage pays out for you. I mean, it is insurance against something going wrong.

Not only have you managed to contradict yourself in the span of three sentences, but your words of advice, while well-meaning, are also alarming.

The only thing more foolish “than serving as a beta tester for Apple,” as you put it, is in fact buying into something that even Apple themselves acknowledge is already broken.

Never the less, it would have made much more sense to start this thread in 6 months time or so, after the people who are “beta testing” the 2019 laptops will have owned their machines for a bit longer than 72 hours.

LOL no contradictions besides buying from a company that has done its Mac fans wrong for years.

We all know the first iteration of Apple hardware has problems.

For years, I kept saying "Well, the next model can't be worse..." I'm not sure if I was wrong, but it was close!

Clearly, in 6 months the best position would be to wait.

 

[H2SO4]

2019 TB MBP SHOULD BE the best iteration of this model. We don't know how good the keyboard will hold up, but at least you'll have Apple Care (stupid to not get it) plus it's already on the keyboard replacement program.

I think this part of your statement is nonsensical. Its the best one but you need Applecare in case it breaks?
Don't buy is what people should be doing. Companies will keep making sub par products because we keep buying them, we're giving them no incentive to improve.

 

[x-evil-x]

The very fact that OP perceives it as stupid not to get AppleCare on an already high priced laptop makes me think now is not the best time to buy an apple laptop.

If you didn’t get AppleCare on any laptop Apple made in the last 10 years than that’s your mistake. Older machines had plenty of issues.

 

[Jimmy James]

If you didn’t get AppleCare on any laptop Apple made in the last 10 years than that’s your mistake. Older machines had plenty of issues.

I’m even more concerned with very long term functionality. I guess I’m being unrealistic in expecting a modern, expensive laptop to function as long as my still used 2008 model?

 

[LogicalApex]

I’m even more concerned with very long term functionality. I guess I’m being unrealistic in expecting a modern, expensive laptop to function as long as my still used 2008 model?

It is all about risk tolerance and your ability to weather the storm. Reliability is going up overall and even the stuff we hate the most in recent apple changes (soldered on RAM and storage) should only increase reliability. That being said, computers, like all mass manufactured items, will have some variability. They will be close enough, but none are 100% identical. The same is true for all of the components that make up the computer.

Long story short, overall the computer model should last just as long as your 2008 or longer, but individual computers in that model may not last as long. But the same was true for your 2008. Yours lasted a long time, but there were some who died even with the 1 year warranty.

if insurance will bring you peace of mind then you can purchase it. If not, then you don't.

Bear with me for my not the best analogy...

It is a lot like crime in your area. You can live in an area with the lowest crime in your nation and there hasn't been an armed robbery in 30 years. But if you get robbed you're going to see that city as just a dangerous as the most dangerous city in your nation. Because it happened to you.

Even if computers are more reliable than they have ever been overall if you experience a breakdown you'll see it as otherwise. As we look at our experiences more so than aggregate statistics with valid trend patterns.

 

[x-evil-x]

I’m even more concerned with very long term functionality. I guess I’m being unrealistic in expecting a modern, expensive laptop to function as long as my still used 2008 model?

If your 08 is doing well then you’re lucky. I had apple swap out my 08 MacBook after too many repairs with a 2011 model. That one ended up having motherboard issues a few years after that.

 

[Hieveryone]

The way I see it, the 2019 macbook pro is a "fully loaded" and (hopefully) "refined" "2016 macbook pro" lol

Like the XS is a "fully loaded spec'd out X"

kinda hard to explain but basically we're hopefully getting the best of this cycle

 

[DougFNJ]

I get what OP is saying and fully agree. It’s the same with buying a brand new model of a car.

Apple tests these new models under every condition they can put it through. But once you release it to the masses, a ton of use case scenarios take place that could never be thought of to test, this the perception of “beta testers”.

As they get back these models with issues, they obviously continue to fix these during production cycles. Many complaints and issues get logged and used as areas for improvement for the version 2 of those models. Some things still tend to appear on the Version 2’s, more improvements and fixes get made, and by the version 3 of the model, you are usually getting the best version of that model.

That’s not saying the version 1’s and 2’s of the models are inheritantly flawed, the bulk majority of those that own them are typically happy and don’t frequent sites like this to even know about the perceived or actual flaws and “gates” the die hards tend to find and discuss.

Just an example, the majority of those using the keyboards from the first version of that keyboard likely haven’t had an issue. If 5% came back (don’t know if 5% is accurate, just for arguments sake), that means 95% did not. So 5% might be higher than normal, but it says most still do not have the problem, or do not notice the problem. Either way, Apple has obviously been working on the fix with every new version, and currently the 2019 is the best version of the keyboard. They also fixed the stage light effect issue caused by the cable from opening the lid over time. Same point I made with percentages and fixes would apply.

So basically, 2019 is the best version of this model. As far as AppleCare+, I just think it’s good to have for numerous reasons. I used to purchase Insurance from State Farm on my Macbooks to cover loss and accidental damage. Peace of mind comes first and when they added accidental damage, I saved money vs insurance. I could say I NEVER drop my laptop, but do we ever really plan to have an accident? And even if it’s the best version of the model, that doesn’t change that there are a lot of parts assembled in these, so if a repair WAS needed after the warranty, those repairs could be very expensive if you didn’t have it. It also boosts the value and easier to sell should you choose to sell the MacBook Pro at some point before the plan expires.

 

[Falhófnir]

The 2019s are as good as the TB models are going to get, yes - but that doesn't mean its not even better to wait for the redesign to see if it at least fixes some of the major issues of this generation decisively, even if it has it's own set of problems.

 

[Dave245]

The problem is that the 2019 keyboard hasn't had a proven fix, it may of been fixed or it may not. The other issue is that there will be a redesign, next year at the latest (since Apple redesign the Macbook Pro every 4 years). There's also a chance that the redesign could come at an October event this year (that would mean Ming Chi Kuo is right).

I'm not saying don't buy, i just think it's a minefield at the moment.

 

[LogicalApex]

The problem is that the 2019 keyboard hasn't had a proven fix, it may of been fixed or it may not. The other issue is that there will be a redesign, next year at the latest (since Apple redesign the Macbook Pro every 4 years). There's also a chance that the redesign could come at an October event this year (that would mean Ming Chi Kuo is right).

I'm not saying don't buy, i just think it's a minefield at the moment.

If your chief concern is reliability and you're holding off for that reason alone then you'd want to probably wait at least another 2 years. You'd want to get a chance to have the redesign "proven" as well. As any redesign brings new unknowns into the mix.

 

[Dave245]

If your chief concern is reliability and you're holding off for that reason alone then you'd want to probably wait at least another 2 years. You'd want to get a chance to have the redesign "proven" as well. As any redesign brings new unknowns into the mix.

It's more the keyboard that has reliability issues, i'm not sure if the 2019 keyboard is fixed, at this point nobody can say that it is or isn't. A lot of people are probably thinking the same, i don't have figures but i do think people are holding off buying until they are confident that the keyboard issue is fixed. Will that be with a redesign? i'm not sure.

 

[LogicalApex]

It's more the keyboard that has reliability issues, i'm not sure if the 2019 keyboard is fixed, at this point nobody can say that it is or isn't. A lot of people are probably thinking the same, i don't have figures but i do think people are holding off buying until they are confident that the keyboard issue is fixed. Will that be with a redesign? i'm not sure.

Yep, absolutely. I just mean it isn't very easy to figure out. For people concerned with the keyboard the most prudent course of action is to wait out the 2019 model until next year and if it proves to be fixed to buy the 2019 model in 2020. Not to buy the redesign where new problems can emerge and it will have an unproven reliability track record.

So those people shouldn't be waiting on a redesign so much as waiting on a model that is proven to be stable over a period of time. That is a tough one though as you'll see new features on the new model that make it a compelling choice when looked at next to an older model.

 

[StuKatz1]

It's more the keyboard that has reliability issues, i'm not sure if the 2019 keyboard is fixed, at this point nobody can say that it is or isn't. A lot of people are probably thinking the same, i don't have figures but i do think people are holding off buying until they are confident that the keyboard issue is fixed. Will that be with a redesign? i'm not sure.

I don’t know about you but after my experiences, I am not even willing to find out how the 2019 keyboards is.

Lets see what the redesign brings. Sadly, I suspect a very similar keyboard to what is around now.

 

[Hieveryone]

I feel so lucky not to have keyboard problems, at least so far...

I just got the 2019 MacBook Pro 15"

I keep a fairly clean environment. So I'm hoping that helps.

 

[LogicalApex]

I feel so lucky not to have keyboard problems, at least so far...

I just got the 2019 MacBook Pro 15"

I keep a fairly clean environment. So I'm hoping that helps.

I don't think dust is an issue for the 2018 or 2019 models. As I haven't had any issues with my 2018 KB I have used daily since September and I'm not in a dust free environment. I clean my laptop at least once a week like I do everything else because American cities have too much pollution.

There is debate on the issue being heat related for the 2018 model, but since some users were able to trigger it "easily" my thought has always been that it may be very much correlated to how hard an individual types. The changes made to the 2019 keyboard are in line with my thoughts on that. Where you may be prone to keyboard issues if you type very hard and end up bending or deforming the metal dome. They reinforced this in the 2019 model.

 

[currahee2100]

I bought my 2018 13” MBP a month or so back. That was the best time for me. Why?

512GB model that runs for 1999, got it for 1399 from Best Buy

2019 is only a small spec bump. I’ll take the $600+ savings please...

 

[throAU]

Theory: Now is the best time to buy a MBP

I have a 2012 rMBP. It's been awesome, but luckily I bought Apple Care because they had to replace it twice. So, you'd think by 2015 the design was perfected as much as it could be.

Apple has seemed to go in 4 year cycles for major changes.
2009?-2012,
2012-2015, Retina MBP
2016-2019?, Touch Bar MBP
2020?-2023? ARM MBP?

2019 TB MBP SHOULD BE the best iteration of this model. We don't know how good the keyboard will hold up, but at least you'll have Apple Care (stupid to not get it) plus it's already on the keyboard replacement program.

Not waiting for the 2020 model where you're going to be a beta tester for Apple is better. You'd have to wait at least until 2021 where they work out SOME of the kinks, both software & hardware for such major changes. Hopefully the keyboard issue is solved & they're not moving backwards!

The 2019 may be the best version of this design (as you say, it should be) but it is still an attempt at polishing a turd.

And as everybody knows, you CAN’T polish a turd.


But you can roll it in glitter...
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The very fact that OP perceives it as stupid not to get AppleCare on an already high priced laptop makes me think now is not the best time to buy an apple laptop.

If you aren’t buying Applecare on their current hardware lineup, you’re rolling the dice IMHO.

Sure, the keyboard issue is covered outside of Applecare, but who knows what other calamities the current super-expensive machines will be subject to. If you’re spending that sort of money on a Macbook Pro, Applecare is cheap insurance.

If money is a concern, there are far cheaper and better bang for buck portables out there. If you’re committed to the Apple hardware, sure - applecare is more money, but you’re already spending a heap anyway, better to be safe.



edit:
AS mentioned above, i’m personally waiting to see if there’s a proper fix for this before purchase. If i purchase. The pricing is way off base, Apple are so stingy with SSD, RAM and GPU spec. I can buy a 13” quad core with 32 GB of RAM (user replaceable), a high DPI display and 2TB of NVME SSD (user replaceable) storage (and space for a 2.5” hard drive or second SATA SSD) for less than a Macbook Pro 13” with 512GB and 16 GB of RAM.