On the future of the Windows laptop market

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

Apple's Surge in first time buyers should worry the PC industry


I've voiced my own bias in favor of Windows, but even with some Mac OS UI bloat, the M1 is unrivaled right now - and the value proposition is great, for once.

IMO if WOA doesn't garner sufficient developer traction due to Microsoft hedging it's bets between X86 and ARM (which makes things a cluster**** to a degree), and Apple releases a Macbook SE - we could see significant MacOS marketshare gains in the next few years, probably especially in the US.

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

Some $749-849 MacBook with a 12/13-inch non-MiniLED display, maybe a year old CPU or cut down M2 (Maybe they have a new B-series of midrange chips, only two "big cores", four "little") would probably be a nightmare for the "just grab something okay at Best Buy" demographic - err, a nightmare for the current Windows OEM's catering to it.

 

[The_Interloper]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

 

[mi7chy]

I fell for the fake hype. In the end, with Chrome available M1 is just a good although expensive Chromebook . A $500 Lenovo Yoga 6 is more stable and a better overall experience than my M1.

 

[Steve Adams]

Hype machine in full effect. Apple will never get beyond 9.x percent of market share....why? MacOS. People who use windows don't want to use MacOS. they don't care about apple like the minions do. businesses are not going to magically swap out hundreds of windows devices just because apple says it's the second coming of Christ. The state of NON mac pcs is just fine.

 

[Steve Adams]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

I won't sell any better than any other mac laptop. You might sell them to people who were on the fence between ipad and a mac. See my post above.

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

I fell for the fake hype. In the end, with Chrome available M1 is just a good although expensive Chromebook . A $500 Lenovo Yoga 6 is more stable and a better overall experience than my M1.

I…. Actually believe this re stable

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

I mean, I could see them selling the current MBA as an SE for like, idk, 849/899 as the new one has an M2 and MiniLED.

or just some revival of the Macbook 12-inch as the $899 quasi SE option

 

[MBAir2010]

 is fine
they make a laptop that their loyal users love and will release several versions of the M1processor in the coming years.
 is not going to go after or appeal to those who are hooked on windows systems or googlechromebooks.
the other PC manufactures will always sell more laptops globally for this reason alone.
 is in a situation were they do not have to worry abut selling the most laptops like Lenovo
whereas the introduction price will stay at $999.00 for an entry level macbook, most likely the air.

the only blemish  might face n the future is IF "and a huge IF" that 20 hour battery in these M1's does not last a full year or needs to be replaced prematurely according to the users dismay, compared to a lenovo, acer, dell, HP etc.
since  survived those macbook-gates through the late 2010's and keep most of their customers, their notebook division will remain strong-enough.

 

[c0ppo]

M1 is amazing, no denying that.
But I used to purchase macs while they were overpriced and under specced compared to PC counterparts. Because of MacOS. Now I plan on doing the same, but purchasing PC because of Linux.

But M-series chips do intrigue me.

 

[Steve Adams]

Like I said in other places, this is power PC all over again. Apple fans are crowing that M series chips are the death of intel, AMD and windows. We all know how that worked out. History repeats itself. M will not take a dent out of overall windows/linux sales at all.

 

[Abazigal]

Like I said in other places, this is power PC all over again. Apple fans are crowing that M series chips are the death of intel, AMD and windows. We all know how that worked out. History repeats itself. M will not take a dent out of overall windows/linux sales at all.

I don’t need Apple to steal market share, just the profits.

 

[Steve Adams]

I don’t need Apple to steal market share, just the profits.

Shareholder?

 

[Abazigal]

Shareholder?

Don’t own any shares, much less any Apple shares.

I am just a guy who is in awe of what Apple is doing. It’s like watching Serena Williams or Usain Bolt dominate at their respective sports. It doesn’t always make for cliffhanging action (in that the outcome was more or less a given before the match even began), but it’s a marvel to watch just how well Apple has been able to improve, iterate, and stay the champ for so long.

What we are currently bearing witness to is a reign of excellence at Apple. This doesn’t mean that Apple is infallible, but we shouldn’t be so proud as to not recognize and applaud when it’s happening.

And I for one am most interested to see how far and how high Apple can climb.

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

Don’t own any shares, much less any Apple shares.

I am just a guy who is in awe of what Apple is doing. It’s like watching Serena Williams or Usain Bolt dominate at their respective sports. It doesn’t always make for cliffhanging action (in that the outcome was more or less a given before the match even began), but it’s a marvel to watch just how well Apple has been able to improve, iterate, and stay the champ for so long.

What we are currently bearing witness to is a reign of excellence at Apple. This doesn’t mean that Apple is infallible, but we shouldn’t be so proud as to not recognize and applaud when it’s happening.

And I for one am most interested to see how far and how high Apple can climb.

Eh I mean. I think their excellence is largely limited to the bread and butter: good hardware integrated with decent software devoid of what most would consider bloatware, with simple UI's.

But I'd have to add something. Their peripherals and accessories have suffered, and the Mac has only recently recovered from it's stupor in hardware marketing experiments - and really, the touchbarless Macbook Pro hasn't been released yet - nor do we have a price yet.

Peripherals and accessories are a bit of a clusterf***. MagSafe is actually priced well IMO, but really ought to be a beta device.

The HomePod emanated a bloated sound signature with god-awful boosts to the treble, etc, with BS "360" audio marketing to boot. No alternative platform options, poor pricing. And Apple just says f*** it, screw you guys - we're going home. Leaving the Mini alone as their smart home & audio choice.

The HomePod Mini is again artificial sound without a sufficient driver size & quantity to compete with the Nest Audio or Echo (though I think the Echo actually does sound bad... so maybe even there depending on Echo's Bass vs HomePod's treble. But the Nest Audio? Destroys it.). The Mini also lacks effing AC WiFi, lol.

The AirPods Max are alright - and like many Apple products show real thought into the design and UX. But they're ultimately somewhat reminiscent of the HomePod (albeit with a somewhat better value prop) - the lack of interoperability (come on, no USB-C?) on this class of niche accessory just screams jewelry. They could've knocked Sony's socks off with a mesh earpad, polycarbonate XM4 clone + ~ $50 Apple Tax. Called AirPods Studio or even AirPads.

The Apple TV is a wasted opportunity in a real gaming console. But far more importantly is woefully overpriced as a streaming device. Only recently corrected some deficiencies, and even then, I'd prefer my Chromecast with Google TV.

They still haven't updated the iPad Mini to a modern design, in part because I suspect they're scared of what it might due to the iPad ASP/profits on the margin should a particular contingent of customers choose a bezel-less Mini over an Air or Pro.

iPads more generally.... Not even sure what to say other than that I think they ought to aim for lower price points for the peripherals or iPads themselves even at cost to the hardware. The M1 Air blows them out of the water for any serious work IMO.

 

[BigPotatoLobbyist]

If you want to argue the excellence is just now hitting it's stride, I may agree - provided they correct some further deficiencies like the MacBook bezels, iPad Mini design, productivity features in iOS (or just a ****ing plain A-Z App Library without gimmicky sorting!), then I'd agree, but it seems to me the Apple products I know and at times use are hardly uniform in their consideration from Apple's engineering/planning time.

 

[InuNacho]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

I think it's more along the lines of cannibalizing the iPad market. Apple touts the iPad as a computer replacement, an Apple Chromebook would chew through a chunk of iPad sales for people that want both but can only afford one or the other.

 

[skaertus]

Apple's Surge in first time buyers should worry the PC industry


I've voiced my own bias in favor of Windows, but even with some Mac OS UI bloat, the M1 is unrivaled right now - and the value proposition is great, for once.

IMO if WOA doesn't garner sufficient developer traction due to Microsoft hedging it's bets between X86 and ARM (which makes things a cluster**** to a degree), and Apple releases a Macbook SE - we could see significant MacOS marketshare gains in the next few years, probably especially in the US.

Well, the whole industry had a surge, not only Apple (https://www.macrumors.com/2021/04/12/mac-shipments-q1-2021-idc/).

Sure, Apple more than double shipments in the U.S. But the whole PC industry nearly doubled. So, it is not exactly a threat. Especially considering that Apple still represents less than 10% of the U.S. market, and that the market actually expanded during the first half of 2021 (allowing Apple to grow while not reducing shipments of other manufacturers).

And Apple's surge above the others could be expected. After all, since Apple's announcement that it would make Macs using their own chips, there was probably some repressed demand which could finally be met after the release of M1 MacBooks.

 

[MBAir2010]

Dell has a month wait on their laptop line.
mostly the ispeion

 

[el-John-o]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

I'm not sure if we'll get it, given Apple's long stance against low end hardware (sort of - because they've also absolutely had low end hardware over the years, such as the USB-C Macbook), but in 2-3 years when the M1 is a generation or two old; an "SE" with a lower end panel, an M1, 8GB of RAM, etc., could be an excellent value proposition. It would be plenty powerful enough for most users at a good price point.

 

[skaertus]

Apple need a MacBook SE, if you like, that fills the gap in the Mac laptop lineup for the lower-mid end. The Air is great but it's still too pricey for most and Apple now cater for the "budget" (in relative terms) buyers with the iPhone SE and regular iPad. They must do this eventually to meaningfully increase Mac market share.

A MacBook with M1, 8Gb RAM and 128Gb SSD with a 1080p FHD screen for, say, £699 would sell like gangbusters without going too low-end. It would crater the mid-range Windows laptop market and may even have those buyers in the £500 price brackets thinking twice (especially as retailers would be bound to discount it).

Apple won't do this yet of course - let the current Air and Pro sit for a bit and transition to the M1X or whatever so as not to cannibalise those sales - but if they did eventually sell a lower-price MacBook there would be little earthquakes happening at Intel and Microsoft.

Yes.

Apple could have a higher market share if Macs were cheaper. Even with M1 Macs beating PCs at the same price point, Macs were still only 8% of shipments in the U.S. And we should not forget that computers are generally cheaper in the U.S. than in other countries and that the average U.S. consumer is wealthier and/or willing to spend more in computers than consumers in other countries. The market share of Macs in other countries is usually much lower than in the U.S.

The only way for Apple to represent a real threat to the PC industry would be to lower the price. Apple could do it if it wanted to, but it does not. It could be simply a matter of replacing aluminum for other less premium materials, which could be perfectly fine and make laptops cheaper (and perhaps lighter). But this is not Apple's approach and I suppose Apple does not care about Mac's market share.

 

[el-John-o]

Yes.

Apple could have a higher market share if Macs were cheaper. Even with M1 Macs beating PCs at the same price point, Macs were still only 8% of shipments in the U.S. And we should not forget that computers are generally cheaper in the U.S. than in other countries and that the average U.S. consumer is wealthier and/or willing to spend more in computers than consumers in other countries. The market share of Macs in other countries is usually much lower than in the U.S.

The only way for Apple to represent a real threat to the PC industry would be to lower the price. Apple could do it if it wanted to, but it does not. It could be simply a matter of replacing aluminum for other less premium materials, which could be perfectly fine and make laptops cheaper (and perhaps lighter). But this is not Apple's approach and I suppose Apple does not care about Mac's market share.

I guess part of it is; what's the goal?

Comparing Mac vs PC market share has never really made a ton of sense to me. That's pitting Apple against hundreds of competitors, not one.

Apple is continually the best selling computer manufacturer. They out-sell Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc., routinely. They just don't outsell them all combined.

Given the way Apple tries to position itself as a 'luxury brand', I'm not sure if it would even be a goal for them to capitalize on a low end market. They may see that as something that hurts the brand overall.

 

[skaertus]

I guess part of it is; what's the goal?

Comparing Mac vs PC market share has never really made a ton of sense to me. That's pitting Apple against hundreds of competitors, not one.

Apple is continually the best selling computer manufacturer. They out-sell Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc., routinely. They just don't outsell them all combined.

Given the way Apple tries to position itself as a 'luxury brand', I'm not sure if it would even be a goal for them to capitalize on a low end market. They may see that as something that hurts the brand overall.

In fact, Apple was the 4th largest computer seller in the 1st quarter of 2021. In the same period last year, Apple was in 5th place. So, Apple is not the best-selling computer manufacturer.

Actually, Lenovo is the largest, and it sold more than 3x more than Apple in the 1st quarter of 2021. HP sold almost 3x units than Apple, and Dell sold almost twice. And this is despite the surge caused by M1 in Apple. Before that, in the 1st quarter 2020, Lenovo was selling more than 4x computers than Apple.

Apple's market share of 8% in the 1st quarter 2021 is very good for a manufacturer selling high-priced products. However, the issue is that Apple uses its own operating system, macOS, which does not run Windows software. The problem with having an 8% market share is that developers will be generally more willing to release software for Windows (that has nearly all the remaining 92% of the market) than macOS.

 

[Steve Adams]

Apple is not going to magically become number one. Most of the m1 sales are to current Macbook owners trading up to the new stuff, not new customers. Yes there are some new customers, but others go the opposite way too.

 

[skaertus]

Apple is not going to magically become number one. Most of the m1 sales are to current Macbook owners trading up to the new stuff, not new customers. Yes there are some new customers, but others go the opposite way too.

Apple is not going to become number one, magically or not. The truth is that the majority of people simply do not have $1,000+ to spend on a computer, no matter what Apple offers.

By offering products at this price point, Apple makes a conscient decision that its products will only sell to a particular narrow audience and that they will never take over the market.