I'm currently trying to find an older Macbook/Pro for a friend, so I've researched almost the exact same question as you. Trying to find the oldest (read: least expensive) Mac possible, but not so old that Apple will drop support soon.
Currently the only unsupported systems have some sort of hardware/firmware limitation preventing them from supporting newer OS versions, and as far as I know there haven't been any truly arbitrary drops of support yet. For example the 2008 Mac Pro tops out at 10.7.5 since that's the last OS X version that supports systems with 32bit EFI. The 2008 plastic MacBooks are another interesting one since they are 64bit for both the CPU and EFI, but apparently Intel didn't release 64bit graphics drivers so they are stuck on 10.7.5.
As far as major things like this go, I don't think anything that currently supports 10.11 will be dropped outright. As in the past, Apple might bump up the minimum RAM required (currently 2GB), which is only a problem for MBAs from late 2008 - mid 2012 that have 2GB and are not upgradable.
The last few hard cut offs have been:
10.5.8 - Last PowerPC support
10.6.8 - Last 32bit processor support
10.7.5 - Last 32bit kernel extensions (ex. graphics drivers)
Anything that can run 10.8 has been compatible with the latest versions.
Other than that I don't think anyone other than Apple really knows.
If Apple does decide to arbitrarily drop support, in the worst case scenario (most models dropped) my speculation would be that they draw the line at when the Retina models came out. If they cut anything after mid-2012 I'd be surprised.
I say this because Metal (Apple's fancy graphics API) works only on machines 2012 and later. Additionally Macs older than 2012 can have GPUs that don't support OpenGL 4+ (ex. HD 3000). Again though, this is all speculation.
If I was looking for a late model Mac (coincidentally I am), I'd suggest looking for at least:
- 4GB ram, or ability to upgrade to 4GB if needed
- 64 bit processor & EFI
- Not PowerPC (obvious)
- GPU newer than Intel HD 3000, or at least supporting OpenGL 4 (Ideally supporting Metal)
- currently supported by 10.11, with as many features still enabled as possible.
- 2012 or newer if possible.
This puts the Mid 2012 non-retina MBP or Mid 2012 MBA as the oldest (likely least expensive) models that meet those criteria. Personally I don't think apple will stop support for anything with a Core iX processor just yet so I'm looking for MBPs from ~2010 or newer, and MBAs 2011 or newer.
I'm not a Mac wizard by any means, so if something is incorrect please feel free to correct me.
wow that's a wall of text.