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Palm CEO on Apple iPhone Threat
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Is this the phone that all telemarketing firms are going to use, calling you up at random trying to sell you something you don't want? Say a Palm treo?
iPhone
I think the iPhone is going to be awesome! Since when can apple not jump in? Where did iTunes come from? That was almost instant! The iPhone should be equipt with similar programs such as iTunes and iPhoto. What I want to see is a 35" HD Television come out by Apple!
I think the iPhone is going to be awesome! Since when can apple not jump in? Where did iTunes come from? That was almost instant! The iPhone should be equipt with similar programs such as iTunes and iPhoto. What I want to see is a 35" HD Television come out by Apple!
To illustrate your point, PalmOne (if that's what the PalmOS Group is called this month...) is doing the aforemnetioned ground-up rewrite of PalmOS now (it should be available to devs soon if they're on schedule) and it's based on Linux. Stable, massively featureful, full PalmOS 5 backward-compatibility, and futureproof.
Yet the hardware arm of Palm has said it might not buy the new sytem from the software arm. I have to imagine this has to do with posturing/playing the good little beoch to Microsoft. We know what happens to companies which partner with Microsoft... that they have proves prima facia that they're unequipped to run a company.
PDA phones
PDA Phones aren't "on the way out", but the problem is, manufacturers haven't figured out how to give the public what they really want in one.
Palm may not be so foolish with their statement discounting Apple, only because they're probably right that Apple isn't really going to put a dent in their particular market.
I've seen so many realtors, insurance agents, company CEO's, and other traveling salespeople relying on Treo phones every day, and it's largely because they need the PDA functionality plus the cellphone.
Most realtors in my area can use the IR port on a Treo to automatically open the lock-boxes on properties they want to show, for example.
If Apple releases an iPhone, I think they'll be concentrating on good integration of the cellphone and a music player ... not so much a PDA, a la the Newton.
PDA Phones aren't "on the way out", but the problem is, manufacturers haven't figured out how to give the public what they really want in one.
Palm may not be so foolish with their statement discounting Apple, only because they're probably right that Apple isn't really going to put a dent in their particular market.
I've seen so many realtors, insurance agents, company CEO's, and other traveling salespeople relying on Treo phones every day, and it's largely because they need the PDA functionality plus the cellphone.
Most realtors in my area can use the IR port on a Treo to automatically open the lock-boxes on properties they want to show, for example.
If Apple releases an iPhone, I think they'll be concentrating on good integration of the cellphone and a music player ... not so much a PDA, a la the Newton.
For those of you who may have forgotten, or are too young to remember, Apple has had more than it's share of Cleveland Steamers.. and an iPhone would just be another turd in the punchbowl.
iPod was a hit because nobody at the time of iPods introduction made anything like it. Sure, there were other players out there, but nothing came even remotely close to the features, size, and ease of use.
The cellular phone market is a whole different playing field, with dozens of established manufacturers with a significant head start (decades) and an established user base.
Apple has about as good a chance of entering the cell phone market as LG does entering the MP3 player market.
While there are folks out there who would buy any piece of plastic that Steve Jobs wiped his rear with and stuck an 'i' in front of the name, in order for it to appeal to the masses, it's going to have to be cool looking, feature rich, and perhaps most importantly, widely available, and inexpensive.
Apple doesn't do inexpensive very well.. and 'playing with others' isn't one of their strengths, either. Both are requirements to enter an already highly competitive cell phone marketplace.
Apple needs to get back to what they do best, which is innovate in untapped or barely tapped markets where they really stand out and shine against the competition.. Apple II, Original Macintosh, iPod, etc. Not jump into an already saturated market with little to distinguish themselves between the competition but a pretty case.
iPod was a hit because nobody at the time of iPods introduction made anything like it. Sure, there were other players out there, but nothing came even remotely close to the features, size, and ease of use.
The cellular phone market is a whole different playing field, with dozens of established manufacturers with a significant head start (decades) and an established user base.
Apple has about as good a chance of entering the cell phone market as LG does entering the MP3 player market.
While there are folks out there who would buy any piece of plastic that Steve Jobs wiped his rear with and stuck an 'i' in front of the name, in order for it to appeal to the masses, it's going to have to be cool looking, feature rich, and perhaps most importantly, widely available, and inexpensive.
Apple doesn't do inexpensive very well.. and 'playing with others' isn't one of their strengths, either. Both are requirements to enter an already highly competitive cell phone marketplace.
Apple needs to get back to what they do best, which is innovate in untapped or barely tapped markets where they really stand out and shine against the competition.. Apple II, Original Macintosh, iPod, etc. Not jump into an already saturated market with little to distinguish themselves between the competition but a pretty case.
Hopefully the iPhone will a handy cell phone...
Software::
- Mac OS X (mobile version)
- iTunes
- iPhoto
- Quicktime
- iChat
- Safari
- Skype (downloadable)
Hardware::
- 3 - 5 megapixel camera w/auto-focus (photo taking)
- VGA (front of phone for video conferencing ... similar too the ones found in iMac / Mac Book / Mac Book Pro)
- Touchscreen
- WiFi
- Bluetooth
- GSM / HSPDA (3.5 G)
- 8 Gb NAND Flash
- 3" Colour Display
Would be nice to be able to have a Mac Book / Mac Book Pro of sorts too fit in your pocket?! Or is that just me?
I would throw away my Nokia N80 and get that.
One thing hopefully it be similar to a Nokia N61. If so plus with the stuff I posted, it would destroy any multimedia phone on the market. Plus would be smaller than an OQO.
*Crosses-fingers*
Software::
- Mac OS X (mobile version)
- iTunes
- iPhoto
- Quicktime
- iChat
- Safari
- Skype (downloadable)
Hardware::
- 3 - 5 megapixel camera w/auto-focus (photo taking)
- VGA (front of phone for video conferencing ... similar too the ones found in iMac / Mac Book / Mac Book Pro)
- Touchscreen
- WiFi
- Bluetooth
- GSM / HSPDA (3.5 G)
- 8 Gb NAND Flash
- 3" Colour Display
Would be nice to be able to have a Mac Book / Mac Book Pro of sorts too fit in your pocket?! Or is that just me?
I would throw away my Nokia N80 and get that.
One thing hopefully it be similar to a Nokia N61. If so plus with the stuff I posted, it would destroy any multimedia phone on the market. Plus would be smaller than an OQO.
*Crosses-fingers*
LG does make an mp3 player.
I believe that Apple's success has been based on the simplicity of the product not on how rich in features it is. Cell phones are currently overly complex, attempting to do more then what their intent was, which is where I think Apple can make a difference. Removing complexity is what Apple does best.
As for playing with others, Apple has constantly made attempts to bridge the gap between PC and Macs. Look at the early PowerMacs when apple had translation tools, and the ability to read PC formated disks.
"Apple doesn't do inexpensive very well"
- Simplicity comes at a price.
iPhone - ooops they did it again
I am positive that Apple will bring a twist into the mobile telephony market, something revolutionary nobody could think that it will work.
And in 2 years from now everybody will state: Yes, Apple did it again.
I bet they do the following:
- Follow the KISS (Keep it stupit simple) concept and build on there current iPOD success!
The new iPhone will be a WIFI iPOD with Skype (or something alike) build in. A high quality camera and Bluetooth Stereo Wireless will complete the hardware.
The software will allow "on the go" chat, blogging, videocasts, RSS and a mobile safari browser.
Strategy: Replace the need for an iPOD´s and provide the best personal communication tool
- Eliminate traditional phone contracts with MobilePhone operators.
Apple will aquire "FON" and build the largest hotspot community in the world where every iPhone user can communicate for free.
This is my prediction.
Jens
P.S. Too bad for palm, but it is not enough just to build the best smartphone. You need to win the community...
I am positive that Apple will bring a twist into the mobile telephony market, something revolutionary nobody could think that it will work.
And in 2 years from now everybody will state: Yes, Apple did it again.
I bet they do the following:
- Follow the KISS (Keep it stupit simple) concept and build on there current iPOD success!
The new iPhone will be a WIFI iPOD with Skype (or something alike) build in. A high quality camera and Bluetooth Stereo Wireless will complete the hardware.
The software will allow "on the go" chat, blogging, videocasts, RSS and a mobile safari browser.
Strategy: Replace the need for an iPOD´s and provide the best personal communication tool
- Eliminate traditional phone contracts with MobilePhone operators.
Apple will aquire "FON" and build the largest hotspot community in the world where every iPhone user can communicate for free.
This is my prediction.
Jens
P.S. Too bad for palm, but it is not enough just to build the best smartphone. You need to win the community...
Y'know as far fetched as some might say a lot of that is there's something that makes a lot of sense there too.
If so I'm not surprised Steve keeps seaying that he has something cool coming soon in interviews!
I think that is exactly right on all accounts and not farfetched at all.
The only things is that the phoneclient will simply be Ichat and not skype.
best
jtm
The only things is that the phoneclient will simply be Ichat and not skype.
best
jtm
The new iPhone will be a WIFI iPOD with Skype (or something alike) build in. A high quality camera and Bluetooth Stereo Wireless will complete the hardware.
The software will allow "on the go" chat, blogging, videocasts, RSS and a mobile safari browser.
Strategy: Replace the need for an iPOD´s and provide the best personal communication tool
- Eliminate traditional phone contracts with MobilePhone operators.
Apple will aquire "FON" and build the largest hotspot community in the world where every iPhone user can communicate for free.
This is my prediction.
Jens
P.S. Too bad for palm, but it is not enough just to build the best smartphone. You need to win the community...
People have noticed recently that ichat isnt the best tool for the job that it's meant to do. An overhaul (as part of leopard?) would need to take place and could be part of the whole strategy.
I know LG makes an MP3 player.. when I said Apple has about as much of a chance entering the cell phone market as LG has entering the MP3 market, what I was referring to is POPULARITY and MARKET SHARE.
When I said Apple doesn't have a history of 'working well with others', I was referring to other companies.
You don't just wake up one day and start selling phones.. there are a whole lot of other companies involved.. most importantly, a cell phone service provider. One who is willing to pay Apples per unit price and give the phone away for next to nothing in exchange for an end customer contract.
That's how the majority of cell phones are sold.. not walking into target and plunking down $250 and it's yours.. but signing a contract for a year or more and getting the phone at a significantly reduced rate, or even 'free'.
In order to be successful in the cell phone market, you need to have more than one cell service provider on board, willing to push your phones, and you have to do it at a price point thats comfortable for both the manufacturer of the phone, and the guy selling the phone.
Then in order to do that, you have to offer that particular provider something special.. like a special model available only at that particular provider. Which means Apple would have to either stick with a single carrier, or have multiple models.
Then finally, you have the convergence factor. I know a lot of people with cell phones. I know a lot of people with PDA's. I know a lot of people with MP3 players.
I don't know a lot of people who want all three devices wrapped up into one unit.
An iPod with the ability (but not a requirement) to connect to cellular networks to download content, I can see and think would be a hit.
Being able to add OPTIONAL, basic phone functions and texting to such a unit for those interested in such a thing, not bad.
But a full blown 'iPhone'? Big mistake.
When I said Apple doesn't have a history of 'working well with others', I was referring to other companies.
You don't just wake up one day and start selling phones.. there are a whole lot of other companies involved.. most importantly, a cell phone service provider. One who is willing to pay Apples per unit price and give the phone away for next to nothing in exchange for an end customer contract.
That's how the majority of cell phones are sold.. not walking into target and plunking down $250 and it's yours.. but signing a contract for a year or more and getting the phone at a significantly reduced rate, or even 'free'.
In order to be successful in the cell phone market, you need to have more than one cell service provider on board, willing to push your phones, and you have to do it at a price point thats comfortable for both the manufacturer of the phone, and the guy selling the phone.
Then in order to do that, you have to offer that particular provider something special.. like a special model available only at that particular provider. Which means Apple would have to either stick with a single carrier, or have multiple models.
Then finally, you have the convergence factor. I know a lot of people with cell phones. I know a lot of people with PDA's. I know a lot of people with MP3 players.
I don't know a lot of people who want all three devices wrapped up into one unit.
An iPod with the ability (but not a requirement) to connect to cellular networks to download content, I can see and think would be a hit.
Being able to add OPTIONAL, basic phone functions and texting to such a unit for those interested in such a thing, not bad.
But a full blown 'iPhone'? Big mistake.
But the funniest thing will be when Apple introduces iPhone and achieves a success similar to that of the iPod...fanboys will come in droves to say that phone X has "FM tuners" or phone Y has "GPS blabla", without understanding that it's not the feature set that makes a winner, but integration AND simplicity...on verra!
p.s.: and yep...without carrier agreements, no chance for a good story...most people get new phones WITH subscriptions that reduce such cell phone prices a lot...period.
p.s.: and yep...without carrier agreements, no chance for a good story...most people get new phones WITH subscriptions that reduce such cell phone prices a lot...period.
Well the funny thing really is that Apple hasn't ever said they were going to make an iPhone, and all this rumor and speculation is based on a .org domain name and a whole lot of circumstantial evidence.
Let's not forget 'iPod' was originally the name they were going to call a sit in internet kiosk type thing, not a music player.
Apple could very well just be cooking up a cellular capable iPod to enable wireless downloads from the iTunes store directly to the device.. which makes way more sense than trying to jump into an already saturated market with low profit margins and tremendous competition.
Let's not forget 'iPod' was originally the name they were going to call a sit in internet kiosk type thing, not a music player.
Apple could very well just be cooking up a cellular capable iPod to enable wireless downloads from the iTunes store directly to the device.. which makes way more sense than trying to jump into an already saturated market with low profit margins and tremendous competition.
I'm of two minds on this. First, I think Apple would have a problem with cell phone providers who wouldn't want to extend service to hardware not purchased through them. Why should they? They're not getting a kickback on the phone. And besides, these people buying their phones from outside sources are just a minority of users, anyhow. A minority they may feel fully capable and even justified in ignoring.
The second thought is: how many people here remember when car dealerships were exclusive dealerships? That is, a Pontiac dealer only sold Pontiacs, a Mercury dealer only sold Mercurys, a Ford dealership only sold Fords, etc. All of that began to fade away in the mid-1980s. Now you have dealerships that sell multiple brands. My point here being that this whole "exclusive" and "main squeeze" rationale used in the cell phone industry is just as carved in stone as the car dealership thing "was".
I'm glad when I got my RAZR I didn't go with Verizon. I can and have BT transferred photos and sounds between my PowerBook and my phone. Heck, I even have Eric Idle as a messenger getting nailed in the chest by an arrow and saying "Message for you, sir" as my voicemail notification. (Most apropos, I thought.)
And yes, obviously I can see why they'd want to do that. I've sent many megs of data back and forth, and I've have had to pay a small fortune to do that if I was going through my carrier (Cingular, btw). BT cuts that all out completely.
This is an example of what I hate about the computer industry, and without going into a long, multi-paragraph dissertation on the matter, companies are so [blankety-blank-blank] greedy that they are unwilling to allow their customers to do very much with their products without having to keep forking over cash to them. This is not the way to have a successful business with legions of hard-core, loyal customers. But then, business thinking these days is so incredibly short-term that the whole concept of really turning your customers into long-term repeat customers is not even a goal they find worth bothering to strive for. Pay lip service to, yes; actually do, no.
What Apple has to rely on is the eventual tendency of companies' adversarial and predatory tendencies to overcome their collective complacency. This could take quite a while.
Consider this. Let's say Apple does something along the lines we're predicting, and sells their phones. Before we plunk down our money, we go around to the various cell carriers and inquire if they'll let us bring our phone to their network. They say either "NO!" or "Not at this time."
Do you still spend your money on Apple's product? I mean, what good's a cell phone (especially if it's more than just a few dollars) if you can't even talk to anybody on it? So, the cell phone companies basically keep Apple from going anywhere, and since they would do this from the start, they could ultimately report back to their bosses (and then onto their shareholders) that, "Oh no, we didn't really screw ourselves out of a lucrative market." on the premise that it isn't lucrative until tons of people are in that market (none of whom would be, since this is basically a giant "chicken-n-egg" scenario with the onus and the expense all stuck squarely on the shoulders of the general public.)
What would make absolutely more sense is for Apple to simply start up their own network. They've already acquired some assets in this area, haven't they? So why not bide their time until they can really roll the thing out? And since it is relatively common practice for cell towers to have more than one (sometimes several) carriers' equipment mounted on them, Apple could buy into who's-ever network they needed to get one of the "lesser third party" broadcast equipment sets that's already out there among the masses.
It could operate something like how Claris used to work, being a division (but a spun-off one) of Apple. It would be an interesting back-door type of approach to the whole equation.
I agree with you totally on this one, Clive.
The problem with "the masses" out there (especially in the U.S.) is that they are so uneducated, unsophisticated, unsavvy, and generally lazy, that ANY solution that isn't served up to them, lock stock and barrel, on a silver platter, automatically will wind up excluding probably a bit north of 70% of the population, and that might simply be me being a bit generous.
Heck, in this country, people don't even educate themselves enough to know not to put scorchingly-hot coffee between their legs in a fast-food drive-through. And having had five years' experience as tech support at Sony Electronics I can tell you that most people don't know -- and don't want to know -- anything about the devices they use. They've grown up and been raised to simply hand the keys to their lives over to someone else. Otherwise, if they had to actually use their minds and *think* something through, well, they don't have time for all that.
Sorry to rant here a bit, but it's the truth. Heck, I've dealt with that at every retail company I've ever worked at, at least to some extent.
The only mobile carriers in a position to do this are the cdmaOne/CDMA2000 ones (Verizon, Sprint PCS, etc.) If Apple makes a GSM or UMTS phone, the carrier has little or no say in whether you use it. T-Mobile and Cingular will, by next year, be running both types of network in the US, and both already run GSM.
The real influence the cellphone companies (at least, the ones not stuck in the 1980s as far as their network infrastructure goes) have on phone purchasing is the ability to subsidize phones that fit their model. This, in practice, usually means rebranding. Cingular is pretty good on that score and rarely insists on more than some ugly logos printed on the phone (unfortunately their network is not the greatest GSM implementation in the world.) T-Mobile, in my experience, is somewhat worse, though not always for bad reasons. For example, they'd probably insist on "My Faves", a proprietary five person phonebook, being grafted on to whatever UI an "iPhone" has, in return for any substantial subsidy.
The fact Apple can't expect carriers to subsidize their phones is one issue they have to deal with. I'm more concerned though with Apple becoming a minority player, with its phone tied to a music store whose success was, in major part, to do with the giant marketshare it had, and thus Jobs's ability to force the labels to compromise on prices.
Apple would need not merely infrastructure but spectrum to actually start a carrier. They have neither.
Purchasing a carrier is an interesting pipe dream and would terrify the crap out of most shareholders. Mobile telephony is a long term thing, with very little return on investment yet for most people who've invested in it. It's not even a good time to get involved, most companies are rolling out 3G networks and 4G, in the shape of WiMAX, is already being released in some areas.
Were they to do the carrier thing, the best they could hope for would be to be an MVNO. This would be a major change of business model. It has so many ramifications I don't know where to begin.
i hope apple comes out with a shoe phone, something the pink panther or inspector gadget would use.