POLL: Do You Really Think Apple Watch will be Refreshed Yearly?

[BarracksSi]

I doubt it will be refreshed yearly.

Other devices have been upgraded because of displays, CPU/SoCs, radio standards (EDGE/3G/4G/LTE, for example), cameras,… basically all pieces of hardware evolution, some of which are due to outside influences.

The Watch has a plenty good display that's already Retina quality; maybe it could be upgraded with a rumored "enhanced sapphire" crystal, but that's about it. The SoC is powerful enough to do the job and won't be asked to drive highly detailed games. It doesn't have, and may never need, a cellular radio. It's not a good camera platform, either, whether for taking pictures (never mind editing and tweet-face-gramming them) or using video chat.

There isn't much that needs upgrading, then, is there? Anything you add, especially if we're talking about more pixels, cellular radios, and faster CPUs, is going to suck up more power. Then you'll need either a bigger battery or totally new battery technology, neither of which looks very likely for a while.

So, no, I don't think we'll see a yearly upgrade cycle. The Watch is being described as an accessory, right? Maybe it'll cruise along with incremental updates like the Apple TV.

We'll find out in 2016/2017/etc. My guess is as good as y'all's.

 

[foxkoneko]

It will be. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves

 

[fanta88]

I expect a new watch in 2016. Pretty much figured the watch would last a year. Anything longer is gravy.

The new one will use the same bodies so folks can continue to use and buy the straps (because I bet if Apple makes any profit from the watch, it'll be from the straps). Perhaps a new mid-high tier model between SS and gold -- but it will definitely have a better battery and improved internals.

I will be pissed if a new one comes out THIS year, however.

 

[Newtons Apple]

2016 will be the first update. Apple is counting on Holiday sales when they have good inventory to sell the Gen1 AW. Maybe by next year we will see a new one.

If this AW does not sell well, which i doubt, they might make it more than two years.

 

[ElctrcJellyfish]

Honestly, can we consider the source for the "sales have dropped for the watch" thing? It's Slice Intelligence, who gets their data from email receipts. So what they are reporting is not the number of sales but the number of email receipts they see in inboxes.

If you look at their chart, sales start "dropping" for the watch at the exact time that Apple announced a date for in-store availability. Because that's probably when a lot of people started saying "Why wait 2 weeks to have it delivered when I can just get it in store?" It may be that watch sales in the aggregate are dropping off. It maybe that we're seeing a shift from online sales to retail sales. The only party that really knows at this point is Apple.

But saying that watch sales dropped off simply because emailed transaction receipts fell off, in concert with a retail release that would also reduce emailed transaction receipts, seems to be not thinking properly about the possible explanations for the data.

 

[rockyromero]

It all depends on the added sensors that can be installed.

Specifically, blood sugar sensors for diagnosing diabetes.

That will take two years for approval.

This is a slow, steady train ride to monitoring health. As the aging population picks up on this, that will be an interesting niche.

Yearly software upgrades, for sure.

➰

 

[Yixian]

One thing is for sure, the current model is unlikely to advance the product anymore than it already has, so if Apple do wait another 12+ months for the next revision, then the AW is likely going to stagnate and be basically on incubation until that point.

I would have though a rev 2 sometime within 6 months followed by a major rev 3 12 months after that would be the minimum required to get the watch to a position where Apple can then think about putting long gaps between revision eg. 24 months.

What they will do I don't know, I had heard some rumblings that the first rev will come sooner rather than later but I haven't heard anything since.

 

[makotoisle]

From a consumer standpoint, I see no reason why they wouldn't upgrade the watch on a yearly basis. iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks are all upgraded yearly with faster processors, etc. I highly doubt Apple is worried about hurting somebody's feelings by making their watch seem obsolete only a year after purchase.

That said, from a technology standpoint, I'm unfamiliar with the internals, but surely they're likely to design faster and more efficient processors that could save on battery?

 

[rowdt1]

From a consumer standpoint, I see no reason why they wouldn't upgrade the watch on a yearly basis. iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks are all upgraded yearly with faster processors, etc. I highly doubt Apple is worried about hurting somebody's feelings by making their watch seem obsolete only a year after purchase.

That said, from a technology standpoint, I'm unfamiliar with the internals, but surely they're likely to design faster and more efficient processors that could save on battery?

True that. Although there's a difference between an object being obsolete and a minor refreshment. If they're still supporting the Watch with future updates I'd see no reason to upgrade it anytime soon, just like my MacBook and iPad. I do however prefer to update my phone each year when a new one comes out.

 

[gdeputy]

My take is:

The hardware is plenty capable, the software will be worked on, with the cost of bands etc. I expect that if an update DID occur it wouldn't be a style update (or at least bands would be compatible).

We will see, it'll be interesting.

 

[PTLove]

The S1 processor is manufactured on 28nm tech. I am positive apple will release a gen2 early next year just for the Battery savings a shrunk down ( 20nm or 14nm ) fabbed core will give.