Other possible iPhone 12 "Dark Horse," Opinions Requested ...

[Jimpilot]

No one credible is predicting the iPhone 12 mini to be the best selling device in the lineup.

Kuo, who has been in this industry for over a decade, predicts a sales mix 20-25% for the iPhone 12 mini.

if anyone credible was predicting it, it wouldn’t be a dark horse. The OP is suggesting it might be the surprise winner. It’s an interesting thought. Time will tell.

 

[Helmlein]

No one credible is predicting the iPhone 12 mini to be the best selling device in the lineup.

Kuo, who has been in this industry for over a decade, predicts a sales mix 20-25% for the iPhone 12 mini.

I wanted one of those as well. HOWEVER: if only the US phones get mmWave 5G support I'm not sure if there will be any left for launch day as it will take me at least 1h to sift through the documentation for device types and frequency ranges....

As limited as mmWave networks may be at this time: apart from the new (smaller) form factor this is the reason I would want one. Of course, I'd also buy immediately if it had TouchID....

H.

 

[JPack]

I’m not taking his or anyone’s word for it. This has been a strange year by every account and consumer behaviour is tending towards focusing practicality over blowing wads of cash on luxuries. A phone is one of the most widespread commodities that begins depreciating the moment it is purchased and people are going to think thrice before spending $1000 on it now more than ever. Especially since in real terms from the average consumer’s standpoint, there really aren’t any radical improvements to the iPhone 12 line up (save the boxy design).

Obviously nothing is set in stone, but I’d never rule it out with the amount of certainty that you currently are.

The pandemic isn’t a black box. We already have data from as recent as June showing the iPhone sales mix in the U.S. It mirrors what we expect: iPhone 11 is the best selling, while the combined volume of 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max match the 11.

The average smartphone replacement cycle is over 3 years. If finances were a major consideration, consumers wouldn’t step into the Apple Store in the first place. Consumers don’t need to force themselves to an iPhone 12 mini or an Apple product. There are plenty of other options including repair and used iPhones.

 

[JPack]

You can't say that with certitude.
iPhone 11 was the best selling iPhone mainly due to attractive price + average consumer is not that interested by OLED. The size was not the main reason.
If 11 Pro and 11 size were swapped do you really think the 11 Pro would be the most sold iPhone out of the 3 ?

At this stage no one knows for sure.
If I had to guess I would say both non-pro models will outsell Pro models (like the XR in 2019 and 11 in 2020) once again because the price is more accessible for average consumer while having a close look/features vs Pro models. Remember that we are not reprentative of the average consumer since we are in a Tech/Apple focused forum 😉 It's normal that people here on MR is more willing to get the best/newest models vs average.

That reasoning doesn’t mean the iPhone 12 mini will be some dark horse. The 5.4” model has a display that is significantly smaller than virtually all smartphones on the market for the past 3 years. It’s a significant handicap compared to the 6.1” mainstream model.

The dark horse argument predicts there will be some extraordinary demand for the iPhone 12 mini. If consumers are willing to pay for the Apple logo in the first place, will they really save $100 to go from 6.1” to 5.4”?

 

[JPack]

if anyone credible was predicting it, it wouldn’t be a dark horse. The OP is suggesting it might be the surprise winner. It’s an interesting thought. Time will tell.

Before typing, you should take a closer look at my reply and the post I was replying to.

 

[Pilot Jones]

The pandemic isn’t a black box. We already have data from as recent as June showing the iPhone sales mix in the U.S. It mirrors what we expect: iPhone 11 is the best selling, while the combined volume of 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max match the 11.

The average smartphone replacement cycle is over 3 years. If finances were a major consideration, consumers wouldn’t step into the Apple Store in the first place. Consumers don’t need to force themselves to an iPhone 12 mini or an Apple product. There are plenty of other options including repair and used iPhones.

You said it yourself. The 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max had to combine to make up the sales of the iPhone that was the cheapest. I don't see how the occurrence of a refresh cycle itself would push people to spend more money than they need to when a perfectly formed alternative is staring them in their face.

Stepping into an Apple Store has nothing to do with it. Apple is a brand that people covet and are willing to try and extend their financial reach towards, but that doesn't mean they'll just start throwing money at them...ESPECIALLY when Apple themselves are providing a cheap alternative that they could realistically buy and get that new phone feeling, avoiding the resale market and cutting their own satisfaction short. It happened with the iPhone 11, it happened with the SE and it most definitely is not a wild leap to assume that the Mini could also repeat that very same buyer behaviour.

This is a forum of enthusiasts, and we still have threads by people who are unclear about the improvements made to the telephoto capabilities of the Pro line up. Good luck explaining camera improvements to your average joe. Regarding updates in RAM, etc., Apple themselves never reveal or focus on the figures so your regular buyer is never going to know if this year's models have 2 more gigs of RAM or not. We will know, because we will look into teardowns and benchmarks, but not everyone else.

Bottom line is, visually and intrinsically, the upgrades to this new line up are truly minimal and customers aren't stupid. They can see that. The users on MR and other tech enthusiasts are the only people who dive into the nitty-gritty and find it worth spending $1K a year for the newest, shiniest device. Regular folk don't do that.

I want to reemphasize that I am still only sitting on the fence, playing devil's advocate against you laying down a certainty. I am NOT saying that the Mini is the undisputed king. But it very well could be.

 

[JPack]

You said it yourself. The 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max had to combine to make up the sales of the iPhone that was the cheapest. I don't see how the occurrence of a refresh cycle itself would push people to spend more money than they need to when a perfectly formed alternative is staring them in their face.

This is where we disagree. I don’t think a 5.4” display is a real alternative to many consumers looking to buy a new 5G smartphone. Not after several years of 6.1” and larger mainstream devices being available to everybody.

Consumers who need to replace their phones this year can purchase iPhone 11, repair their existing iPhone, or buy a used one. How many tech enthusiast 5G plan subscribers will choose to save $100 and settle for the smallest 5G phone on the market?

In countries where 5G deployments are mature, 5G smartphones start at $150 and come with a 6.5” display. The iPhone 12 mini attracts buyers who really want a small device and those who really don’t want to fork out $100 for the 6.1”. Both those markets are small.

 

[Zune55]

No one credible is predicting the iPhone 12 mini to be the best selling device in the lineup.

Kuo, who has been in this industry for over a decade, predicts a sales mix 20-25% for the iPhone 12 mini.

I think iphone 12 mini and iphone 12 pro max both will be in high demands. Both has new display sizes. iPhone 12 Pro Max will also look gorgeous because of its 6.7 inch display. iPhone SE 2nd gen is 5.45 inches in height but the display has bezels. That should be the overall height of iPhone 12 mini but with edge to edge display. I really want iPhone 12 mini even if doesn't has 5G or has other shortcomings. I want to see how iPhone 12 Pro Max looks with its new large display but i won't pre-order it.

 

[Lwii2boo]

This is where we disagree. I don’t think a 5.4” display is a real alternative to many consumers looking to buy a new 5G smartphone. Not after several years of 6.1” and larger mainstream devices being available to everybody.

Consumers who need to replace their phones this year can purchase iPhone 11, repair their existing iPhone, or buy a used one. How many tech enthusiast 5G plan subscribers will choose to save $100 and settle for the smallest 5G phone on the market?

In countries where 5G deployments are mature, 5G smartphones start at $150 and come with a 6.5” display. The iPhone 12 mini attracts buyers who really want a small device and those who really don’t want to fork out $100 for the 6.1”. Both those markets are small.

Both non-pro will outsell by far Pro model exaclty like the two last years. Price is once again a factor more important than screen size.
Average consumer want a flagship level experience but don't care at all about geeky details, RAM, Hz, mAh etc. Average consumer want a device with a nice look, easy to use, not too expansive but still feels premium and with good camera for social networks etc.

I do still think that the regular 12 will beat the mini one but for sure i expect a gap in sales between non-pro and pro. Like 12 > 12 Mini >> 12 Pro Max > 12 Pro (cannibalised by regular 12).

Last but not least the true plan of Apple is having more and more people on their ecosystem, they exactly know that Phone upgrade are getting slower and slowers, they want to have a large pool of customer on recent iPhone to refinforce their highest potential revenue stream : services (IAP, iCloud, Apple One, Apple Music, App Store etc.).
The pro model are also here to give people the impression than regular iPhone are "value" while they are still expansive and to give extra confidence in people to buy regular one.

 

[JPack]

Both non-pro will outsell by far Pro model exaclty like the two last years. Price is once again a factor more important than screen size.
Average consumer want a flagship level experience but don't care at all about geeky details, RAM, Hz, mAh etc. Average consumer want a device with a nice look, easy to use, not too expansive but still feels premium and with good camera for social networks etc.

I do still think that the regular 12 will beat the mini one but for sure i expect a gap in sales between non-pro and pro. Like 12 > 12 Mini >> 12 Pro Max > 12 Pro (cannibalised by regular 12).

Last but not least the true plan of Apple is having more and more people on their ecosystem, they exactly know that Phone upgrade are getting slower and slowers, they want to have a large pool of customer on recent iPhone to refinforce their highest potential revenue stream : services (IAP, iCloud, Apple One, Apple Music, App Store etc.).
The pro model are also here to give people the impression than regular iPhone are "value" while they are still expansive and to give extra confidence in people to buy regular one.

If price was more important than screen size, then iPhone XR would be 5.8" or smaller and lower priced.

It's about the right mix of price, display size, and other features. I don't think the iPhone 12 mini has the right mix. Anybody that looks at iPhone 12 mini will recognize it has a significantly smaller display than most new smartphones.