Eirik's thoughts
Originally posted by macktheknife
(I'd accidentally posted this reply as a new thread. Sorry!)
......Apple won't want to clear inventory just for the sake of energizing sales: to clear inventory so aggressively means that something else will take the G4's place.
Again, just my thoughts . . .
Why wouldn't Apple offer rebates just to push product (clear inventory)? Its what every other seller of any product or service does when sales are short of forecasts or profitable volume. Doing so is a practical necessity.
But let me offer a rationale for why this might mean a PowerMac update. When Apple unveils its racked servers, if they contain DDR, a faster bus, and/or faster CPU's (G4 or G5), then this would elevate expectations among prospective PowerMac buyers, such as myself, that the PowerMac is due for an update soon.
Those like me would postpone our PowerMac purchase until at least MWNY or a PowerMac update sooner than MWNY, slowing PowerMac sales further.
To a corporation, a dollar of sales in May is worth more than a dollar of sales in July, albeit it can be a negligible difference. This can be due to just the time value of money. Also, if a new product update causes a surge in sales that lasts maybe eight months, then a May release would mean seven full months of sales in the current year. If Apple releases a new product in July (first week), then Apple realizes five full (almost) months of sales for the year. But since Apple's fiscal calender begins in October, Apple is even more motivated to release a product update sooner rather than later. That is, Apple would enjoy a greater advantage from releasing the product as soon as it is available rather than postponing the release to coincide with MWNY.
Why is the current fiscal year so important to a corporation? The stock market tends to be myopic, especially in times of less than stellar performance. The computer industry is still suffering, compared to prior years. Apple is heavily motivated to make the most of its earnings this year so as to earn the status from Wall Street as that of the 'darling of the computer industry'. I've little doubt that SJ covets that status.
One final point about timing, the more Apple postpones a product release, the greater the potential for incurring supply problems that would hurt sales. Now, this is despite the obvious advantage of waiting because doing so affords more time to prepare the logistics of the release. However, if the product is hot, that is, hotter than forecasted, as was the new iMac, then logistics would require time to adjust to the higher than expected volume. Consequently, sales for the present fiscal year would be missed because waiting ate up time that would have been used to adjust to higher than anticipated product demand.
Another point about product releases, an expo attracts the attention of many in the media and industry for an extended period of time. How much time do you really need to profess the value and wonders of a PowerMac? Not much, its not that complicated a concept these days as everyone knows what CPU's, RAM, hard drives, and even bus speeds.
So, does a MacWorld help Apple sell more PowerMac's? Does releasing a PowerMac with a MacWorld generate more positive press for Apple over the course of the year than doing so separately? No, on both points!
Releasing major pieces of hardware helps generate attention for MacWorld more so than the contrary. But MacWorld is a staple of the industry and I would argue adds less to the volume of sales as many people presume.
If I were SJ, I would still release major pieces of hardware and software at MacWorld, but not exclusively, just enough to maintain the awe of a Macworld. Instead, I would employ MacWorld to showcase new concepts, things that require more attention from the news media than is required to assess a new PowerMac.
For example, if Apple enters the Moxi/Tivo-like world combined with Jini that internetworks the entire household, placing the Mac(s) at the heart of the home, that complex concept requires more attention from the media and industry folk to truly understand and appreciate the new concept/product-family so that they can effectively extoll the virtues of said product-family to the rest of the world.
So, if Apple has the PowerMac update ready, they ought to release it as soon as it can. If the rack server has any of the 'new' features (mentioned above) and the PowerMac update is not yet ready for release, then Apple shouldn't release the rack until the PowerMac can be released very shortly afterwards, else, PowerMac sales would worsen until the release finally occurs. So, if my reasoning is aligned with that of Apple decision-makers, then the rack release could be very telling.
Well, I hope you had a bagged lunch while you read this novel.
Eirik
