Predict the 2020 Oscars (April 2021)

[Doctor Q]

The 93rd annual Academy Awards (Oscars) will be awarded on Sunday, April 25, 2021, honoring the best movies of 2020 and the first two months of 2021. The scripted telecast will reportedly be "like watching a movie."

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the award show is more than two months later than usual, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences bent a few rules, such as including movies exhibited through February 2021 and allowing movies to qualify for nominations if they were previosly planned for theatrical release but were instead released for TV, streaming services, DVD, or even shown on airplanes or over the Internet.

The Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories have been combined into a single Sound category, which allows at most one sound mixer, two sound editors, and three rerecording mixers as nomineees. Perhaps they should cap the number of screenwriters that are permitted too, so we don't end up with nominations like the one for "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm," which as 9 different people listed as screenwriters!

Films with the most nominations:

10 for Mank
6 each for The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Sound of Metal
5 each for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Promising Young Woman
​

Personal note: In my opinion, the academy voters goofed, because My Octopus Teacher was actually the best picture from last year! If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It's on Netflix.

There were only a few forum threads about 2020-2021 movies, such as Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and 'Mulan' to Be Available as $30 In-App Purchase in Disney+ App on Apple Platforms.

But for obviously reasons there were lots of MacRumors news stories and a couple of discussion threads related to the two nominees from Apple TV+:

• Tom Hanks WWII Film 'Greyhound' to Premiere on Apple TV+
• Apple Announces July 10 Release Date for Upcoming Tom Hanks WWII Film 'Greyhound'
• Tom Hanks Discusses 'Heartbreaking' Shift of WWII Film Greyhound From Theatrical Blockbuster to Apple TV+ Exclusive
• Apple Shares Inside Look at Upcoming WWII Movie 'Greyhound' With Tom Hanks
• Tom Hanks WWII Movie 'Greyhound' Debuts on Apple TV+
• Greyhound Audio Sync
• Greyhound
• Launch Weekend Popularity of Apple TV+ Movie 'Greyhound' Compared to 'Box Office Big Hit'
• Apple Looking to Increase Acquisition of Blockbuster Movies for Apple TV+ Following Success of 'Greyhound'
• Apple TV+ Lands First Oscar Nominations for 'Greyhound' and 'Wolfwalkers'

 

[Doctor Q]

MacRumors Oscar Contest

This is the 19th annual MacRumors Oscar Contest. This year there are 118 nominations for 56 movies in 23 categories. The forum contestant with the most correct predictions wins the traditional prize: MacRumors bragging rights.

Here's how to vote:

• Copy the ballot from the next post below.
• Delete all but one line in each category, leaving 1 choice per category (your prediction).
• Post it in this thread.

Contest rules:

• Post between now and 6:00pm Eastern time Sunday. (That gives me time to collect the ballots.)
• Do not edit your post after voting.
• One ballot per person.
• You need not vote in every category but there's no penalty for guessing.

Previous MacRumors "Predict the Oscars" contests:

2019: winners Doctor Q and swiftaw (19 correct)
2018: winner swiftaw (15 correct, the lowest winning score in the last decade)
2017: winner swiftaw (21 correct, tying the all-time record)
2016: winner swiftaw (18 correct)
2015: winners dejo, Doctor Q, and swiftaw (17 correct)
2014: winner Doctor Q (20 correct)
2013: winners dejo and Doctor Q and swiftaw (21 correct, all-time record)
2012: winner swiftaw (19 correct)
2011: winner swiftaw (19 correct)
2010: winner Doctor Q (18 correct)
2009: winner Doctor Q (16 correct)
2008: winner Doctor Q (20 correct)
2007: winners NEENAHBOY and Doctor Q (13 correct)
2006: winner Doctor Q (15 correct)
2005: winner Doctor Q (18 correct)
2004: winners VincentVega and Pittsax (16 correct)
2003: winners wdlove and Doctor Q (20 correct)
2002: winner Doctor Q (13 correct)
​

 

[Doctor Q]

--- MacRumors Oscar Ballot ---

Best Actor: Anthony Hopkins for The Father
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actor: Gary Oldman for Mank
Best Actor: Steven Yeun for Minari
Best Actor: Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal

Best Actress: Viola Davis for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Frances McDormand for Nomadland
Best Actress: Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Best Actress: Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern, and Nina Pedrad for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Best Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller for The Father
Best Adapted Screenplay: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Adapted Screenplay: Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami...
Best Adapted Screenplay: Ramin Bahrani for The White Tiger

Best Animated Feature Film: Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae for Onward
Best Animated Feature Film: Glen Keane, Gennie Rim, and Peilin Chou for Over the Moon
Best Animated Feature Film: Richard Phelan, Will Becher, and Paul Kewley for A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Best Animated Feature Film: Pete Docter and Dana Murray for Soul
Best Animated Feature Film: Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, and Stephan Roelants for Wolfwalkers

Best Animated Short Film: Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat for Burrow
Best Animated Short Film: Adrien Merigeau and Amaury Ovise for Genius Loci
Best Animated Short Film: Will McCormack and Michael Govier for If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Animated Short Film: Erick Oh for Opera
Best Animated Short Film: Gisli Darri Halldorsson and Arnar Gunnarsson for Yes-People

Best Cinematography: Sean Bobbitt for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Cinematography: Erik Messerschmidt for Mank
Best Cinematography: Dariusz Wolski for News of the World
Best Cinematography: Joshua James Richards for Nomadland
Best Cinematography: Phedon Papamichael for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Costume Design: Alexandra Byrne for Emma
Best Costume Design: Ann Roth for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Costume Design: Trish Summerville for Mank
Best Costume Design: Bina Daigeler for Mulan
Best Costume Design: Massimo Cantini Parrini for Pinocchio

Best Director: Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round
Best Director: David Fincher for Mank
Best Director: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Best Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Director: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

Best Documentary Feature: Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana for Collective
Best Documentary Feature: Nicole Newnham, James LeBrecht, and Sara Bolder for Crip Camp
Best Documentary Feature: Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibanez for The Mole Agent
Best Documentary Feature: Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, and Craig Foster for My Octopus Teacher
Best Documentary Feature: Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino, and Kellen Quinn for Time

Best Documentary Short Subject: Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard for Colette
Best Documentary Short Subject: Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers for A Concerto Is a Conversation
Best Documentary Short Subject: Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook for Do Not Split
Best Documentary Short Subject: Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman for Hunger Ward
Best Documentary Short Subject: Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan for A Love Song for Latasha

Best Film Editing: Yorgos Lamprinos for The Father
Best Film Editing: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Film Editing: Frederic Thoraval for Promising Young Woman
Best Film Editing: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen for Sound of Metal
Best Film Editing: Alan Baumgarten for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best International Feature Film: Another Round - Denmark
Best International Feature Film: Better Days - Hong Kong
Best International Feature Film: Collective - Romania
Best International Feature Film: The Man Who Sold His Skin - Tunisia
Best International Feature Film: Quo vadis, Aida? - Bosnia and Herzegovina

Best Live Action Short Film: Doug Roland and Sue Ruzenski for Feeling Through
Best Live Action Short Film: Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan for The Letter Room
Best Live Action Short Film: Farah Nabulsi for The Present
Best Live Action Short Film: Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe for Two Distant Strangers
Best Live Action Short Film: Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman for White Eye

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Marese Langan, Laura Allen, and Claudia Stolze for Emma
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle, and Patricia Dehaney for Hillbilly Elegy
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri, and Colleen LaBaff for Mank
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, and Francesco Pegoretti for Pinocchio

Best Original Score: Terence Blanchard for Da 5 Bloods
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank
Best Original Score: Emile Mosseri for Minari
Best Original Score: James Newton Howard for News of the World
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul

Best Original Screenplay: Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, and Keith Lucas for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay: Lee Isaac Chung for Minari
Best Original Screenplay: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Best Original Screenplay: Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, and Derek Cianfrance for Sound of Metal
Best Original Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Song: Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, and Richard Goransson for "Husavik" in Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Best Original Song: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, and Tiara Thomas for "Fight for You" in Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Song: Diane Warren and Laura Pausini for "lo Si (Seen)" in The Life Ahead
Best Original Song: Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth for "Speak Now" in One Night in Miami...
Best Original Song: Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite for "Hear My Voice" in The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Picture: David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi, and Philippe Carcassonne for The Father
Best Picture: Shaka King, Charles D. King, and Ryan Coogler for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Picture: Cean Chaffin, Eric Roth, and Douglas Urbanski for Mank
Best Picture: Christina Oh for Minari
Best Picture: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Picture: Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell, and Josey McNamara for Promising Young Woman
Best Picture: Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche for Sound of Metal
Best Picture: Marc Platt and Stuart Besser for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Production Design: Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone for The Father
Best Production Design: Mark Ricker, Karen O'Hara, and Diana Stoughton for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Production Design: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale for Mank
Best Production Design: David Crank and Elizabeth Keenan for News of the World
Best Production Design: Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas for Tenet

Best Sound: Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders, and David Wyman for Greyhound
Best Sound: Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, and Drew Kunin for Mank
Best Sound: Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, and John Pritchett for News of the World
Best Sound: Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott, and David Parker for Soul
Best Sound: Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, and Phillip Bladh for Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actor: LaKeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actor: Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami...
Best Supporting Actor: Paul Raci for Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman for The Father
Best Supporting Actress: Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried for Mank
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn for Minari

Best Visual Effects: Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt, and Brian Cox for Love and Monsters
Best Visual Effects: Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon, and David Watkins for The Midnight Sky
Best Visual Effects: Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, and Steve Ingram for Mulan
Best Visual Effects: Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, and Santiago Colomo Martinez for The One and Only Ivan
Best Visual Effects: Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher for Tenet

 

[Huntn]

Don’t know a thing about any of these movies.

 

[Doctor Q]

With movie theaters closed, I wasn't able to see as many of the nominees as I wanted to, but I gave it my best effort using streaming services, seeing 62% of the movies, and seeing the movies for 72% of the nominations. Maybe I'll sneak in one more nominated movie tomorrow.

I hope Apple TV+ accepts the claim that just being nominated is honor enough.

After seeing the two films involved, I found the battle between Mikkel E. G. Nielsen and Alan Baumgarten for Film Editing to be the toughest call this year. I almost flipped a join, but went with Sound of Metal because I think it'll win for Sound and get a boost from that, while I've picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to go home empty-handed. We'll see.

For Documentary Short Subject, I didn't think A Love Song for Latasha had enough archival footage to make a truly outstanding film, but I'm picking it to win based on the subject matter and the mood of the country. Speaking of that mood, the Live Action Short named Two Distant Strangers was really excellent.

Pixar has another likely winner with Soul, which I just saw today.

--- MacRumors Oscar Ballot ---

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Animated Feature Film: Pete Docter and Dana Murray for Soul
Best Animated Short Film: Will McCormack and Michael Govier for If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Cinematography: Joshua James Richards for Nomadland
Best Costume Design: Ann Roth for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Documentary Feature: Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, and Craig Foster for My Octopus Teacher
Best Documentary Short Subject: Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan for A Love Song for Latasha
Best Film Editing: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen for Sound of Metal
Best International Feature Film: Another Round - Denmark
Best Live Action Short Film: Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe for Two Distant Strangers
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul
Best Original Screenplay: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Best Original Song: Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth for "Speak Now" in One Night in Miami...
Best Picture: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Production Design: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale for Mank
Best Sound: Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, and Phillip Bladh for Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn for Minari
Best Visual Effects: Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher for Tenet

 

[swiftaw]

--- MacRumors Oscar Ballot ---


Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Actress: Frances McDormand for Nomadland

Best Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller for The Father

Best Animated Feature Film: Pete Docter and Dana Murray for Soul

Best Animated Short Film: Will McCormack and Michael Govier for If Anything Happens I Love You

Best Cinematography: Joshua James Richards for Nomadland

Best Costume Design: Ann Roth for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland

Best Documentary Feature: Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed, and Craig Foster for My Octopus Teacher

Best Documentary Short Subject: Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan for A Love Song for Latasha

Best Film Editing: Alan Baumgarten for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best International Feature Film: Another Round - Denmark

Best Live Action Short Film: Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe for Two Distant Strangers

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, and Jamika Wilson for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Original Score: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste for Soul

Best Original Screenplay: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

Best Original Song: Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth for "Speak Now" in One Night in Miami...

Best Picture: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, and Chloe Zhao for Nomadland

Best Production Design: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale for Mank

Best Sound: Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, and Phillip Bladh for Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn for Minari

Best Visual Effects: Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, and Scott Fisher for Tenet

 

[daimos]

The evening news. In all categories.

 

[Doctor Q]

Contest results

Congratulations to swiftaw, who has won bragging rights for this year's contest, with 18 correct predictions.

Doctor Q came in second, with 17 correct predictions.

Neither of them did as well as last year, but of course there was 1 fewer category this year. Both of them failed to predict Anthony Hopkins for Best Actor, Erik Messerschmidt for Best Cinematography, Colette for Best Documentary Short Subject, or "Fight for You" for Best Song.

In the home contest, Mrs. Q tied Doctor Q, despite making different predications. That should keep peace in the house.

I'm pleased that I correctly predicted Sound of Metal for Best Film Editing since that's the choice I found most difficult, and that I correctly guessed that The Trial of the Chicago 7 would go home empty-handed.

* * *

Movie statistics:

15 movies won at least one Oscar.

Winners

Movies winning more than one Oscar:

Nomadland (3 wins out of 6 nominations)

Mank (2 wins out of 10 nominations)

The Father (2 wins out of 6 nominations)
Judas and the Black Messiah (2 wins out of 6 nominations)
Sound of Metal (2 wins out of 6 nominations)

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2 wins out of 5 nominations)

Soul (2 wins out of 3 nominations)
​

Losers

Movies with multiple nominations yet no wins:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (6 nominations)

News of the World (4 nominations)

One Night in Miami... (3 nominations)

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (2 nominations)
Collective (Romania) (2 nominations)
Emma (2 nominations)
Hillbilly Elegy (2 nominations)
Mulan (2 nominations)
Pinocchio (2 nominations)
​

Because of the declining interest and lack of participation, this will be the last MacRumors Oscar Contest, unless someone else would like to host it.

 

[maflynn]

The family and I tried to watch the Oscars last night but I think we lasted about 30 minutes (tops). It was just so boring, and while none of us are fans of the acceptance speeches they seemed particularly dry and boring last night - more so then usual. We gave up and put something on that was a bit more entertaining

 

[Juicy Box]

Because of the declining interest

This probably has more to do declining interest in the Oscars than the MR Oscar Contest.

I think the lack of interest in the Oscars in general is making way more headlines than any news about the nominations or winners.

Actually, I think YouTube videos poking fun at the Oscars' viewership decline are getting more views than the nominated movies.

Between boring movies, political messaging, a horrible format, and just lack in interest in all award shows, people just don't want to watch anymore.

 

[Doctor Q]

The fact that people saw way fewer movies in theaters, due to the pandemic, definitely hit the industry hard, but Oscar interest has been on a decline anyway.

The viewer count was down by about 58% since last year, which was already a low point. Last year about 23.7 million people watched. They expected only 12 to 15 million this year, and the actual number was reported as 9.25 million.

They may have saved the Best Acting awards for last, thinking that the tribute to Chadwick Boseman would a fitting ending, but the Best Actor upset spoiled that plan. Anthony Hopkins wasn't even there. There was little suspense over Best Picture, which may be why they gave it out earlier, rather than last.

I didn't really mind the long speeches thanking endless collaborators, because it was better than having an orchestra treat winners rudely by trying to "play them off the stage" after a few seconds. Yuh-Jung Youn's speech was the best.

 

[swiftaw]

I think the lack of the ability to go to the movies and the push back of many releases may have contributed to the last of interest this year. It may be that as we come out of this pandemic that interest picks up again next year.