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Prediction: Apple server chaos on Friday

mcdj

mcdj

macrumors G3
Original poster
This is the first time Apple has officially announced a specific date for an iPhone firmware download. All 1.x updates were sprung upon us with little warning. 2.0 was rumored for July 11th, but Apple never came out and said it. 2.0.1 and 2.0.2 were also largely unannounced.

2.1 is also one of the most anticpated updates yet. Some may argue it's even more so than 2.0 was.

Add to this the fact that with each firmware update, exponentially more people are in posession of an iPhone.

Come this Friday, and who knows exactly when, there could be literally hundreds of thousands of people hammering Apple's servers for 2.1, the likes of which haven't been seen since 7/11/08, when the iPhone crush flatlined both Apple and AT&T activation servers for several hours. How many more people have iPhones today compared to 7/11? A LOT more.

Announcing the exact date of the release was a big mistake IMO.

/prediction
 
mcdj said:
This is the first time Apple has officially announced a specific date for an iPhone firmware download. All 1.x updates were sprung upon us with little warning. 2.0 was rumored for July 11th, but Apple never came out and said it. 2.0.1 and 2.0.2 were also largely unannounced.

2.1 is also one of the most anticpated updates yet. Some may argue it's even more so than 2.0 was.

Add to this the fact that with each firmware update, exponentially more people are in posession of an iPhone.

Come this Friday, and who knows exactly when, there could be literally hundreds of thousands of people hammering Apple's servers for 2.1, the likes of which haven't been seen since 7/11/08, when the iPhone crush flatlined both Apple and AT&T activation servers for several hours. How many more people have iPhones today compared to 7/11? A LOT more.

Announcing the exact date of the release was a big mistake IMO.

/prediction
Click to expand...

For all we know, Apple could release a day or two early.

Actually, given Apple's history, I think this is very likely.
 
LePigeonBleu said:
Can you show me some Apple history that would point to an early drop?

m
Click to expand...

Well, Apple has been known to release software a day or two early.

The 2.0 software is an example, but that was more of a leak than an early release.

They have released software early though, I promise 😀
 
That may be why they're releasing it on a Friday? Only the dedicated will update (a lot may not have updated to 2.0.2) and the rest will get it later. Also, if it goes boom, less press on the weekend and they could fix any major problems by Monday
 
Excellent point. The 2.0 firmware was released a day before it was announced (released for New Zealand, yet U.S. was able to access it before we got the 3G phone), yet somehow, millions of people knew about it. As of today, MILLIONS of 3G iPhones in addition to the already millions of original iPhones (how many originals were made?) are out there in the world.

APPLE BETTER BE READY !!! 😱 😱 😱
 
this is why they are releasing the ipod touch and itunes updates today so all of it wont go to hell on friday...hopefully but it should work
 
so the servers might be overloaded for a couple hours while the macRumors crowd floods them. The average user won't rush to get this. Some won't even know there is an upgrade until they get texted by their network provided way later.
 
how does one go about getting this update once its out? i know with my macbook it just automatically pops up with updates... but how does it work with the iphone?
 
HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.
 
superspud said:
how does one go about getting this update once its out? i know with my macbook it just automatically pops up with updates... but how does it work with the iphone?
Click to expand...

when your iPhone is plugged in and connected to iTunes, hit "check for update" on the main iPhone screen that pops up when you plug your iPhone in.
 
FJR said:
HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.
Click to expand...

oops read your post wrong sorry. I thought you werte saying average users would know. it is too late here I am going to bad LOL
 
Either way, I don't really care... I'm going to give it a week for the "beta" testers to sort it out. Recently Apple's been dropping the ball on updates, so I always wait for others to try it out and then I'll join in on the madness. What's another week anyway with this wonderful 🙄 software...
 
FJR said:
HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.
Click to expand...

That's because some people have a life, that DOESN'T revolve around Apple 😉
 
If as many people are downloading the free HD shows right now as I think they are, then the iPhone update should be fine.
 
i don't think so. 2.1 is way less anticipated than 2.0. Because Apple had been advertising 2.0 for ages in advance and it was a huge upgrade (Appstore etc) and everyone wanted it. But 2.1, most of the world would not know about it and not everyone is pressing check for software on itunes constantly waiting to get some bug fixes.
 
avoiding another iPocalypse....

Well, Apple FINALLY learned their lesson....
by first letting the iPod touch users upgrade to 2.1, then the iPhone, on Friday, to prevent their xserve servers from EXPLODING.....
 
bmwpowere36m3 said:
I'm going to give it a week for the "beta" testers to sort it out. Recently Apple's been dropping the ball on updates, so I always wait for others to try it out and then I'll join in on the madness.
Click to expand...

Same here. I read the comments on MacRumors first to see what benefits and drawbacks the each update has before I decide to "infect" my phone.
 
I have some friends with the Touch....I'll ask them today how their download of 2.1 went yesterday. If the 2.1 update does everything for the Iphone that is stated, well, lets just say I'm kind of excited.

I'm in the habit of charging my phone quite a bit...at home, at work, and in the car. I haven't had a problem with dropped calls, but with bad 3G reception.
 
Rybold said:
Same here. I read the comments on MacRumors first to see what benefits and drawbacks the each update has before I decide to "infect" my phone.
Click to expand...
Normally I would agree, but this is an exception -- 2.0.X is so crappy that you really have nothing to lose by updating to 2.1. Early adopters of 2.1 may be 'beta testers', but those stick with 2.0.2 are alpha testers...
stockcerts said:
I have some friends with the Touch....I'll ask them today how their download of 2.1 went yesterday. If the 2.1 update does everything for the Iphone that is stated, well, lets just say I'm kind of excited.

I'm in the habit of charging my phone quite a bit...at home, at work, and in the car. I haven't had a problem with dropped calls, but with bad 3G reception.
Click to expand...
I have both the Touch and the iPhone and I installed 2.1 on the Touch yesterday, after installing iTunes 8.

So far it's been good. Graphics are faster and smoother, it's back to the same speed as in the 1.X firmware. No lag between screens. Contacts lag is gone. Backup is much faster. Sadly this can't be said about the rest of the sync process, which takes several minutes as usual even when no data has changed. Battery life is considerably better (my Touch has never showed full charge after 12+ hours before).

The only problem I've noticed is that the Pinball RC game (aka Zen Pinball) doesn't work. You get the welcome screen and all the buttons, but there are no game graphics, it's just completely white.
 
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