Prediction: How many iPads sold in 2010?

[wombat888]

You can save a life in a given situation, but when talking about aggregate views of people in the abstract, you can't save a life until you invent a way for people to live forever. You can only extend and improve life. Always funny to me that people talk about how smoking kills X number of people or the like. As if quitting smoking means you will have eternal life.

But that said ...

I think a lot of people are overestimating how many sales there will be this year. Right now, we are seeing pent-up demand served. Once that's done, sales will slow down greatly, though I think they'll remain steady all year.

 

[GamecockMac]

About a month after the iPad is launched in all countries demand will drop.
A good estimate would be 5 million for the year.

Lousy estimate. They'll be selling that many per quarter soon.

 

[bobob]

"iSuppli has increased its iPad sales estimates from 12.9 million to 13.8 million for 2010, from 36.5 million to 43.7 million for 2011, and from 50.4 million to 63.3 million for 2012." link

 

[BornAgainMac]

7 million. Should have been much higher. That least most people are use to the name "iPad".

 

[bobob]

7 million. Should have been much higher.

Errr... yes, almost twice as high.

 

[Piggie]

"iSuppli has increased its iPad sales estimates from 12.9 million to 13.8 million for 2010, from 36.5 million to 43.7 million for 2011, and from 50.4 million to 63.3 million for 2012." link

Must admit I struggle with that number.

13.8 Million for this year = fantastic.

But 50 to 60 million for 2012?

There will be tens of millions of perfectly good Mk1 and Mk2 second hand iPads filling the marketplace for 2012.

I do struggle to accept that 50 to 60 million new Mk3 iPads will be sold in 2010

Due to as I said, there being tens of millions of older models washing about, and a whole wave of tablets from a good dozen other makers on their 2nd or 3rd revision by then too.

 

[poloponies]

Due to as I said, there being tens of millions of older models washing about, and a whole wave of tablets from a good dozen other makers on their 2nd or 3rd revision by then too.

Their estimates consider expansion of the tablet market, it's not like the same people are buying them all over and over again. And your estimate of the resale market is overblown by an enormous amount. I doubt more than 10% are resold on the market - and that's over the useful life of the device. I don't know a single person (and I know a lot of people) who has ever sold a notebook, iPod, iPhone or computer on the secondary market. They get passed down to kids, other family members or end up on a shelf somewhere. Just like my and my wife's iPads. When it's time to get new ones, these will go to the kids or niece/nephew,

 

[PCClone]

100. This thing is just a oversized iPod and will never sell.

 

[Piggie]

Their estimates consider expansion of the tablet market, it's not like the same people are buying them all over and over again. And your estimate of the resale market is overblown by an enormous amount. I doubt more than 10% are resold on the market - and that's over the useful life of the device. I don't know a single person (and I know a lot of people) who has ever sold a notebook, iPod, iPhone or computer on the secondary market. They get passed down to kids, other family members or end up on a shelf somewhere. Just like my and my wife's iPads. When it's time to get new ones, these will go to the kids or niece/nephew,

I've seen plenty for sale on various forums, and of course eBay

Like you I've not seen any friends sell Apple products, but then of all the people I know only two actually have Apple products, everyone else has PC's either desktop/laptop or other types of phone.

I accept the tablet market will expand and more new tablets will be bought.

But I also accept that this year Apple have had it all their own way.

In 2012 they will be competing for Tablet shelf space in the same way their iPhone4 is competing against Android HTC, Samsung, Droid etc etc smartphones.

The marketplace COULD/WILL be very different in two years time.

Either the Tablet will just be a fad with only a small percentage buying as it is now, or the market could be swamped by many many different models and brands.

I was just saying I think it's a little optimistic to think Apple can sell four times the number of tablets as it has in it's launch year when it had no competition.

I could be wrong.

Hopefully we will all still be here in 2 years time and one of us can say they were wrong

 

[PracticalMac]

1 day left!

So, what's the # so far?

 

[saberahul]

1 day left!

So, what's the # so far?

I'd say at least 1

 

[Mlrollin91]

As of 9/30/2010 7.5 million units were sold.

I'm going to guess about 10.5 million through 12/31/2010

 

[hcho3]

Over 14 million iPads sold so far... around the world and that doesn't include the christmas sales. The number was up to end of November.

7 million? Yea.. right.

 

[PracticalMac]

Over 14 mil, blew the doors off a lot of predictions.

2011 someone (NYT? WSJ??) predicted close to 60 million.