Prediction: iPhone 7 launch sales will be worse than iPhone 5

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by wozmatic, Aug 16, 2016.

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Your prediction for iPhone 7 sales in first 3 days?

  1. 10 million+

    28 vote(s)
    50.9%
  2. 8-10 million

    9 vote(s)
    16.4%
  3. 5-8 million

    6 vote(s)
    10.9%
  4. 3-5 million

    3 vote(s)
    5.5%
  5. 0-3 million

    9 vote(s)
    16.4%
  1. wozmatic macrumors 6502

    wozmatic

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    #1
    [​IMG]
    --- Post Merged, Aug 16, 2016 ---


    I say 4 million in first 3 days.

    2.5 million pre-orders on first day.
     
  2. Ghost31 macrumors 68020

    Ghost31

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2015
    #2
    I'm going to say it'll be close to the iPhone 6 launch with just a little bit over. So more than last year, but so not impressive that everybody says Apple is doomed after launch for a few months.

    I also predict removal of the headphone jack will have a pretty substantial backlash. So much that even Apple is pretty surprised by the response , but that towards the end of the year into the beginning of next year it'll calm down and people get more used to it. Not totally OK with the removal, but just not so angry about it
     
  3. joeblow7777 macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2010
    #3
    I can't imagine it being less than half the iphone 6 launch, and if it is embarrassingly bad, Apple won't release sales figures so we'll never know.

    Also, if it has a good launch people who were expecting/wanting it to have a poor launch will come up with reasons why the numbers aren't legit.
     
  4. Relentless Power macrumors Penryn

    Relentless Power

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2016
    #4
    Knowing Apple, we may or may not the results based on sales. I have a feeling this iPhone won't be a model where it's not difficult to come across. I'm confident on preorder day that I will be able to pick up one up with very little difficulty.
     
  5. Savor Suspended

    Savor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2010
    #5
    It isn't how fast you sell in a weekend but how much you sell overall in the long run. The iPhone 5 sold 70M overall making it the 2nd most popular iPhone behind the 6/6 Plus.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_mobile_phones

    iPhone 6/6 Plus - 100M
    iPhone 5 - 70M
    iPhone 4s - 60M
    iPhone 5s - 52M

    Understand while there are already 1B iPhones sold, the active user base is about 300M. While Android active users is at 1.4B although it could be higher because that number was from a year ago. If say 20% of the 300M active iPhone pool decides to upgrade to the 7, that's still 60M being sold.

    LOL at the Apple doom and gloom talk. Apple make inferior smartphones now but only 13M short from last year's record sales without taking account this year's fourth quarter. The Apple plague for tech idiocracy symptoms is still successful globally especially in the United States and Europe.

    Maintaining their consumer loyalty % steady is what keeps Apple selling a bare minimum 50M iPhones every year. Every year, people do upgrade. Every year, Apple maintain their consumer loyalty which is why iPhone sales never flop. The platform switcher % is important to them.
     
  6. Newtons Apple, Aug 17, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2016

    Newtons Apple macrumors Core

    Newtons Apple

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2014
    Location:
    Jacksonville, Florida
    #6
    If sales are bad we will likely never know for a long time.

    Apple does not disclose these figures.

    I am betting that Apple will sell LOTS of these new iPhone but doubt it will be a record breaker.
     
  7. CEmajr macrumors 601

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2012
    Location:
    Charlotte, NC
    #7
    People on this site seem to be greatly underestimating the iPhone user base. The only reason the sales are "down" is because they're being compared to the 6/6+ sales which were totally insane due to the pent up demand for larger screens. Now here we are two years later and it's time for most of those users to upgrade again.

    The 7 probably won't match the 6/6+, I think that may have been peak iPhone sales but I do expect it to top the sales of every other iPhone launch. Worse than the 5 considering the size of the current iPhone user base? LOL.
     
  8. laudern macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2011
    #8
    Hopefully they might have a buy one get one free deal if sales are not what they expect them to be.
     
  9. phongaol Suspended

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2016
    #9
    i guess around 4 millions , if truely look same as leak .... who want that , who who who :)
     
  10. Xangelkiller macrumors member

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2014
    #10
    Many forget that it's been 2 years since the 6 and 6+ went on sale. Most will be upgrading this cycle (despite the headphone jack complaints you see on every tech enthusiast blog, if Apple provides a lightning to aux cable in the box most will just use that). I think sales for the 7/7+ (or whatever they call it) will be between 85-105% of 6/6+ sales.
     
  11. LoveToMacRumors macrumors 68020

    LoveToMacRumors

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2015
    Location:
    Canada
    #11
    I believe it's going to break record because Apple spend a lot on Advertising. Poster, billboards in subways, every newspaper is going to mention the new iPhone, etc etc.
     
  12. BLUEBLASTER macrumors regular

    BLUEBLASTER

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2016
    #12
    Agreed Apple will know the hype is low and since the phone looks the same they will push advertising more than normal.
     
  13. lordofthereef macrumors G5

    lordofthereef

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    #13
    well, I guess never is a long time.
     
  14. ichii macrumors 6502a

    ichii

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2006
    #14
    Agreed, I have owned almost every iPhone since the first one. Apple haven't really brought anything new to the table to make it enticing. Sure specs aren't everything, but they're still rocking a 8mp or 12mp camera and ~1080p. Plus the battery is average at best(My experience with iPhone 6) I was hoping that the iPhone 7 would bring something new to the table, but I would be disappointed if it's just going to be a bump in spec.
     
  15. chrisforpm macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2015
    #15
    We also don't know what major feature they might have up their sleeve. If its something really cool we might see a bigger launch. If not, I say about 8-9 million in the first 3 days
     
  16. Abazigal macrumors G3

    Abazigal

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2011
    Location:
    Singapore
    #16
    Prediction - long lines, iPhone sells out, Apple reports another profitable quarter, haters on the internet go crazy.
     
  17. aneftp macrumors 601

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2007
    #17
    I don't think so.

    The landscape has changed a lot since 2014. Especially in the USA with most USA customers going to financing installment plans.

    Consumers are hanging onto their phones longer. Gone are the days carriers can temp users by giving them a $200 "trade in" credit and consumers can get an new subsidized iPhone for $200 on contract.

    Consumers see an added monthly equipment bill. Carriers try to make it look cheaper by dragging out the installment over 24-30 months.

    Plus the 7 doesn't seem drastically different. Those on installment plans for the iPhone 6 probably will just wing it and say they will wait another year since their phone is paid off.

    For the first time ever. I am not gonna to get the iPhone 7 launch day. I may pick it up November when there is a $200-300 promo going on with the resellers like Costco or Sam's club
     
  18. Harmonious Zen macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    May 18, 2013
    #18
    Yeah, I'm pretty sure this will be a lackluster launch. But let's just keep in mind that we're talking in Apple terms here. Apple's lackluster other companies can only dream of.

    The true jump will come in 2017. That much is clear and Apple themselves are planning for it internally as such.
     
  19. Newtons Apple macrumors Core

    Newtons Apple

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2014
    Location:
    Jacksonville, Florida
    #19
    Your guess is just as good as mine. :rolleyes:
     
  20. aneftp macrumors 601

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2007
    #20
    I just resold my galaxy s7 (on installment) with $200 Best Buy gift card. (Msrp $694 plus taxes plus $15 att next fee).

    Sold it for $480. So my "net cost for 4 months $750-480" was $270 "loss". But factor in $200 gift card. It really only cost me $70 over 4 months.

    That's how I will play the att next game.

    Wait for iPhone 7 with $300 gift card promo at Costco/Sam's club like they had last November 6-7 weeks after iPhone 6S/plus launch.

    These high end phones are still outrageously overpriced. Electronics at supposed to get cheaper but smartphones have gotten more expensive esp Apple and Samsung
     
  21. lordofthereef macrumors G5

    lordofthereef

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2011
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    #21
    I was trying to be funny. You said never in a long time. Never is a long time. :)
     
  22. Newtons Apple macrumors Core

    Newtons Apple

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2014
    Location:
    Jacksonville, Florida
    #22
    Never can and will vary if you were a politician.

    I stand corrected and say Never OR a long time!:)
     
  23. TJ82 macrumors 6502a

    TJ82

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    #23
    Nice analysis guys. Sales look so bad they started giving them out in cereal boxes. :rolleyes:
     
  24. xofruitcake macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    #24
    We seem to forget that Apple launched in 28 countries this time around while the previous launch were done at only 12 countries only. The top 12 countries probably account for 70% of all iPhone sales. The second tier countries account for may be 20% of the sales. So whatever number one want project, add 30% to it just because we have additional countries in this launch weekend. Also there is discussion about buying it later with promotion. We already have a big promotion going on now with the trade in program at all 4 big carriers in US. I have an iPhone 6 Plus and I look up my trade in at Gazzlle is about 175-195 and if I trade in my 6 plus, I got 695 credit from ATT, the additional 400+ is a subsidy. Verizon go even further and will take 5. US is about 40% of all Apple revenue in 4Q15. So one has to add the effect of the subsidy into the first weekend sales guess. The trade in program come out without warning. I don't think apple's production plan account for the additional demand come from the promotion. Unless someone plan to switch carrier in a year, it is crazy not to take advantage of the trade in promotion. For the 6s owner, they can buy a used 6 in the market for trade in and sell their 6s.
     

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