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Predictions For Shipping Delays On IPhone X launch date?

Unprocessed1

Unprocessed1

macrumors 65816
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Jun 23, 2008
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It seems like there are conflicting interpretations of what the 12 million supply of the X could mean for people on their computers at the moment of preorders opening.

A USA Today story yesterday reported: "Production delays and pent-up demand from early adopters will cause the phone to sell out within an hour or two when it goes on presale on Apple's website Oct. 27, tech analysts say."

That obviously means there should be sufficient stock for folks waiting to preorder on the 27th?

What do you all predict will be the time frame after the official preorder time that the shipping date will slip past November 3rd?
 
I think it will go:

2-4 weeks
4-6 weeks
6-8 weeks

I think if the rumours are true then supply will be tight for a while. It also depends on demand for the iPhone X, if it is very popular I can see it selling out within a couple of minutes, if not and it ends up like the initial iPhone 8 and 8 Plus pre-orders they will be available for a day or 2 before the dates start to slip.
 
Dave245 said:
I think it will go:

2-4 weeks
4-6 weeks
6-8 weeks

I think if the rumours are true then supply will be tight for a while. It also depends on demand for the iPhone X, if it is very popular I can see it selling out within a couple of minutes, if not and it ends up like the initial iPhone 8 and 8 Plus pre-orders they will be available for a day or 2 before the dates start to slip.
Click to expand...

I will just add to this.

Launch day delivery: You are going to need to get your order submitted within 1-2 minutes
3-4 weeks: 2 minutes - 5 minutes
4-6 weeks: 5 minutes - 20 minutes
6-8 weeks: 20 mins - 1 hour
January 2018 and later: 1- 2 hours

Obviously this is all speculation, but I feel pretty confident with launch day delivery being going within a minute, 2 max.
 
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For those who don't preorder, I estimate February 2018 until they see movement on both models of the iPhone X.
 
Honestly, with sky-high demand and multiple production issues, I think a lot of people would be better off waiting until next year's "premium" phone. My spidey sense tells me that many people who preorder even 5 minutes after the preorder window opens will be waiting until well into 2018...at that point, why not just wait for the next iteration that'll probably have TouchID embedded into the screen like everybody wants?

It also sends Apple a message. I LOVE Apple - probably more than anyone should love any company - and sometimes love includes a little tough love. If the iPhone X is a flop, perhaps it'll be the kick in the pants that Apple needs. Not from a features standpoint - they're doing great there - but from a production readiness standpoint. To my recollection, Steve Jobs never announced a product at a keynote and said it'll be available "next month" or "this fall" or "this December". Only since Cook has taken the helm have we seen more and more products be announced and released in this fashion. Cook's a good CEO and I wouldn't want to see anyone else in his spot, but it all seems lazy.

And for full disclosure I'm an Apple shareholder - I am fully aware of what this would do to the stock price but I don't really care. For the sake of Apple's long-term viability, they need to revert back to not announcing products and features until they are FULLY tested and ready for implementation.
 
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mattopotamus said:
I will just add to this.

Launch day delivery: You are going to need to get your order submitted within 1-2 minutes
3-4 weeks: 2 minutes - 5 minutes
4-6 weeks: 5 minutes - 20 minutes
6-8 weeks: 20 mins - 1 hour
January 2018 and later: 1- 2 hours

Obviously this is all speculation, but I feel pretty confident with launch day delivery being going within a minute, 2 max.
Click to expand...

I think this will be spot on or very damn close.
 
You all are very negative. It's no coincidence apple decided to launch on so many contrives at the same time. I predict we'll have relatively decent stock from launch on, nothing like the apocalypsis you make it seem like.
 
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With all the rumors going on, nobody truly knows. First it was 10, 000 a day...then rumors were saying production hadn't even started yet....now rumors are saying Apple will have atleast 12 million on hand for launch day. I personally don't see inventory being as bad as some are making it out to be. I've heard these iPhone production horror stories so many times over the years. But nobody truly knows. Next 4 weeks are gonna be long bruh
 
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sdwaltz said:
It also sends Apple a message. I LOVE Apple - probably more than anyone should love any company - and sometimes love includes a little tough love. If the iPhone X is a flop, perhaps it'll be the kick in the pants that Apple needs. Not from a features standpoint - they're doing great there - but from a production readiness standpoint. To my recollection, Steve Jobs never announced a product at a keynote and said it'll be available "next month" or "this fall" or "this December". Only since Cook has taken the helm have we seen more and more products be announced and released in this fashion. Cook's a good CEO and I wouldn't want to see anyone else in his spot, but it all seems lazy.
Click to expand...
Jobs announced the original iPhone ~6 months before it actually went on sale. The devices used in the keynote were so far from ready for mass production that the Apple engineers were concerned they might crash during the demo and had Jobs use a different phone to demo each feature so as to avoid problems like memory leaks. Likewise, the original iPad was announced with a ship date 60 days later for WiFi and 90 days later for the cellular models.

I do agree that the production delays under Cook look bad for someone who is supposedly a “logistics genius” and ought to be something Apple could overcome with all the cash they have lying around. But also keep in mind they are a business. It’s in their interest to underestimate demand rather than overestimate. That way, they don’t end up with excess inventory sitting around a warehouse that might never get sold if the demand ends up not being there. Could they do a better job with iPhones specifically (since that product is such a huge part of their business)? Absolutely, and the explosion of iPhone SKUs sold under Cook has made estimating demand needlessly difficult. But, let’s not make Jobs into something he wasn’t.
 
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Unprocessed1 said:
It seems like there are conflicting interpretations of what the 12 million supply of the X could mean for people on their computers at the moment of preorders opening.

A USA Today story yesterday reported: "Production delays and pent-up demand from early adopters will cause the phone to sell out within an hour or two when it goes on presale on Apple's website Oct. 27, tech analysts say."

That obviously means there should be sufficient stock for folks waiting to preorder on the 27th?

What do you all predict will be the time frame after the official preorder time that the shipping date will slip past November 3rd?
Click to expand...


It will be like all past launch’s. The split launch helps but only having 2 colors and 2 sizes will make it a little harder. But just like ever other launch within an hour shipping estimates will slip. They didn’t launch the 7+ at Apple stores last year which made it worse. But this year they are, and I live a couple hours away from Apple headquarters so I’m hoping they show there local stores more love then other ones...lol
 
mattopotamus said:
I will just add to this.

Launch day delivery: You are going to need to get your order submitted within 1-2 minutes
3-4 weeks: 2 minutes - 5 minutes
4-6 weeks: 5 minutes - 20 minutes
6-8 weeks: 20 mins - 1 hour
January 2018 and later: 1- 2 hours

Obviously this is all speculation, but I feel pretty confident with launch day delivery being going within a minute, 2 max.
Click to expand...

This is exactly what I'm thinking. Stores will probably have some stock on Nov 3rd - albeit extremely limited like a dozen of each size/color and then they will get them sporadically through the end of the year. So if you don't pre-order within the first half hour, I would just keep trying Apple Retail Stores. 3rd Party Retailers in the U.S will probably be lucky if they even have a couple on launch day.

Basically if you dont Pre-Order, or your not one of the first people in line on launch day, your chances of getting one in 2018 are very slim.
 
mattopotamus said:
I will just add to this.

Launch day delivery: You are going to need to get your order submitted within 1-2 minutes
3-4 weeks: 2 minutes - 5 minutes
4-6 weeks: 5 minutes - 20 minutes
6-8 weeks: 20 mins - 1 hour
January 2018 and later: 1- 2 hours

Obviously this is all speculation, but I feel pretty confident with launch day delivery being going within a minute, 2 max.
Click to expand...


Ya but I make an apt to go pick it up from Apple store. Which I’m in a small city so the min’s Logic doesn’t really apply to us. If you go threw carrier u will see those estimates for shipping
[doublepost=1506619706][/doublepost]It also depends on what carrier u use or sim free. Whatever store sells the most of a type of carrier they will get more of those.. ask ur local store what’s the most popular cell carrier they sell for. Also space Grey will be hotter than Silver, it always is. Since I use a case I always go silver and I always get it on launch day!
 
JayIsAwesome said:
With all the rumors going on, nobody truly knows. First it was 10, 000 a month...then rumors were saying production hadn't even started yet....now rumors are saying Apple will have atleast 12 million on hand for launch day. I personally don't see inventory being as bad as some are making it out to be. I've heard these iPhone production horror stories so many times over the years. But nobody truly knows. Next 4 weeks are gonna be long bruh
Click to expand...

not 10,000 a month lol. 10,000 a day.
 
10k a month we would all be screwed. Lol Past launch’s opening weekend sales have been 9-13 Mill sold, not fulfilled. So that should give us some type of there will be plenty stock for All Pre order’s..
[doublepost=1506621232][/doublepost]
JayIsAwesome said:
I meant day. My bad. And even so, the rumors have been changing about this device's availability seemingly every where
Click to expand...

Don’t listen to any rumors, the real numbers have been 9-13 Mill pre orders on first weekend the last 2 years. So if they have 12 Mill for that we are good.
 
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It appears demand for the X and 8 series is actually lower than demand for the 7 last year. If they can really produce 10-12 million by the end of the month, it may be possible that supply demands won't be as bad as originally feared?
 
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People are completely underestimating the importance of year end. Apple will want to sell as many iPhones as possible by 12/31/2017. My guess is if you get your order in during the 1st 20-30 minutes, you'll get at launch. After that, it will drop to 4-6 weeks(30 minutes after pre-order starts-4 hours) before moving to 6-8 weeks(4 hours + after preorder starts).

Really believe they would launch in 55 countries, most ever, without a decent supply?
 
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I’m going to say that iPhone upgrade folks will get a phone on launch day if they get up early and order as soon as they become available. Everyone else will get a delay.
 
Jimpilot said:
I’m going to say that iPhone upgrade folks will get a phone on launch day if they get up early and order as soon as they become available. Everyone else will get a delay.
Click to expand...
I like the way you think! Let’s hope you’re right. I mean, if you think about it.. we’ve went over our 12 month upgrade plan already, why make us wait longer?! We should have priority.
 
I want to have faith that they actually can get me my new X within a month or 2 of preordering. I want to have this confidence buoyed by the fact that Mr. Cook was the VP os logistics before Mr. Jobs passed on. He knows the ins and outs of what it’s going to take to make it happen. And I want to have faith that they wouldn’t even suggest 11/3 if they knew they weren’t even going to be close to that delivery date.
I don’t mind the notch, not too worried about the different screen aspect ratio.
I have faith that this older man will be quick with the keyboard and get it ordered and get it soon.....
HOWEVER,
I’m reminded of the fiasco of the Jet Black last year., and the AirPods that I don’t want I understand are still on backorder.
I’m reminded that Mr. Cook runs the show a little different from Mr. Jobs.
I remember that every ‘new device or color’ change seems to bring delays,
And I remember that when I stay up to preorder, I’m too jumpy or excited and make at least one mistake, haha
I fear I will see something like 2-3 months or moreif I don’t complete in first five minutes.
I’m still astounded that aside from all of the leaks of the phone before the keynote (Keynote was anticlimactic cause we already knew most everything about it by that time anyway), that there isn’t much info, other than that Mr. Kuo of KGI securities knows if they are even producing them yet in mass, and If so, what’s the output?
I say this all, even working for a major carrier in retention, knowing how inventory drags.
Can’t wait to see how this plays out. The iPhone 8 order was a barely nitceable blip on these forums. Can’t wait to see this blow up.
 
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