Preoders: how fast will they run out?

Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by tylerdw89, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. tylerdw89 macrumors 6502

    Jul 3, 2007
    What are your thoughts? How long will it take for online preorders to slip to delivery after April 24th?

    For those who preordered the iPhone 6, how long did that take before initial stock was gone?
  2. MICHAELSD macrumors 68040


    Jul 13, 2008
    I would predict all Watch models besides the Edition to run out within ten hours. Hell, the $549-599 Watches will probably sell out very quickly as well as many of the Sport Watches.
  3. jabingla2810 macrumors 68020

    Oct 15, 2008
    If the leaked dates from yesteday are true, even the first orders aren't guaranteed for delivery on the 24th.

    At least in Europe anyway.

    Hopefully they weren't accurate, but all signs point towards very low numbers being available.
  4. bbeagle macrumors 68040


    Oct 19, 2010
    Buffalo, NY
    My guesses.... I think that some Sport models will slip within 2 hours, with some configurations available until later in the day, then slip dates. I think some SS configurations (especially the black link one), will not slip until a few days later.

    So, undoubtedly you'll get people who can't buy a Sport thinking about getting a SS and paying more money to get one on launch day.

    I believe the production issues this time, and I also believe Apple's estimates of sales are too low, especially for the Sport. I think their sale estimates for the SS are too high.
  5. DJTJ macrumors regular

    May 3, 2005
    im wondering the same thing... do I wake up at 3am EST time, or do I wait till I roll into work at 7:30am to order??
  6. MagicBoy macrumors 68040


    May 28, 2006
    Manchester, UK
    Stick a finger in the air, see which direction the wind is blowing. Then guess.
  7. maflynn Moderator


    Staff Member

    May 3, 2009
    I'm guessing shipping dates will start slipping within the first couple of hours.
  8. profmatt macrumors 68000


    Mar 7, 2015
    If the leaked dates from yesterday are true, I am going to be furious.

    Apple is the largest, richest company in the world, with one of the most loyal customer bases. Is it really too much to ask that they stick to their word? Launch a product when it's ready and when you have the stock to meet demand. Why get people's backs up by claiming availability on the 24th and then immediately pushing it back. If they were not going to be ready by the 24th, they should have announced a later date.
  9. batristain macrumors 6502


    Sep 15, 2014
    I had planned to just order when I started work at 715am but after reading this thread I'm going to get up at 250am EST and just order it - get it over with and then go back to bed for a few more hours. I work from home this week so it's not such a big deal......
  10. Piggie macrumors G3


    Feb 23, 2010
    Let's put it this way.....

    Apple has VERY carefully managed every aspect of this device from start right up to now.
    Doing every single thing it can to promote this as THE new device.

    I would say Apple are going to MANAGE stock availability of this VERY carefully to make sure it looks like am amazing success that everyone is desperate to get their hands on.

    And they will use whatever stock control/availability tricks they can, or they need to, to make sure it "Looks" this way.

    I think you can work out for yourselfs the rest.
  11. mattopotamus macrumors G5


    Jun 12, 2012
    Everything is just a guess at this point. It could be hours, days, or weeks.
  12. bbeagle macrumors 68040


    Oct 19, 2010
    Buffalo, NY
    Put your tinfoil hat away.... Apple has never done this, although they've been accused of this every single launch since the iPhone 1.
  13. Gooberton macrumors 65816

    Jun 20, 2010
    I'd say minutes from the feeling I'm getting , and I've ordered online every phone since the 3G . I'll give it 10 minutes till some start to slip
  14. mattopotamus macrumors G5


    Jun 12, 2012
    I think the first to slip will be the space gray sport. It seems like a ton of people want that model. The others will slip based on how many they actually produce. I hate to say it, but I am sure the US has a much larger supply coming their way.
  15. Piggie macrumors G3


    Feb 23, 2010
    So, you think that if demand was low, Apple would keep shipping as many as they possibly can units into stores even when the media started reporting, loads in stock sitting unsold.

    You genuinly think Apple would keep pumping into the stores the stock they have build up ready in the warehouses?

    I don't think even you would do this.
    You would wish to balance it, to make it look very successful.
  16. mattopotamus macrumors G5


    Jun 12, 2012
    I really do not think they are going to sell as crazy as the forums are making it out to be. I know zero people IRL, outside of myself, who is preordering this product or even cares about it....
  17. Scott-n-Houston macrumors 6502a

    Apr 27, 2008
    Houston (duh)
    I just don't see this. For one, there are so many options vs. a handful with the iPhone.
    Secondly, I still think the general public is 'lukewarm' on this at best. I am at a software company and of all the consultants and developers on my team, I don't know any of them who is ordering other than me, and I'm the 'old guy' who isn't even technical anymore.

    Being on this forum skews our perception of the real demand for this watch.

    That being said, NONE of us know the true supply which is obviously just as important as true demand.
  18. jabingla2810 macrumors 68020

    Oct 15, 2008
    This theory always comes up, but it doesn't hold much water.

    Apple are purely interested in selling as many of these as they can.

    The signs seem to show that stock is going to be limited, but this stinks more of broken promises, and people not willing to say no behind the scenes.
  19. Piggie macrumors G3


    Feb 23, 2010
    The point is, we have no idea if this is all part of the Managed Launch.

    they must have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into this.
    Do you really think Apple are going to leave any aspect of the launch to chance.

    They will have every single "What if" scenario carefully planned out, and what action they will take whatever happens to make this look successful.

    I think we can all hear Tim Cook on stage now saying how amazed they were with the unpresendented demand for this new device.
    And how it has sold far better than even they have expected.

    That speech is probably already written now :)
  20. Mr.C macrumors 601

    Apr 3, 2011
    London, UK.
    As already mentioned this is one of those cynical viewpoints that always crops up when a new product is about to be launched by Apple. It even happens with other companies although in my mind there is no truth in it.
  21. tylerdw89 thread starter macrumors 6502

    Jul 3, 2007
    I have read that the Apple website often crashes during these preorders? With that thinking, it would be better to use the Apple Store App, correct? Has anyone had issues preordering from the app in the past?
  22. Tom G. macrumors 68000

    Tom G.

    Jun 16, 2009
    Champaign/Urbana Illinois
    We've waited how many years for Apple to come out with this watch, a few more weeks or even a month or two is no real problem. Especially until recently we've not even known for sure that Apple was even working on a watch.

    Besides I've got my Pebble watch to tide me over. :p
  23. SMIDG3T Suspended


    Apr 29, 2012
    It does. Use the Apple Store app, much easier and causes no stress. Well, when I've used it, no issues.
  24. bluechair1984 macrumors regular

    Jul 7, 2010
    I've seen this happen the iPhone launches. I'm going to guess the demand for the watch is much less. Also during an iPhone launch the servers are talking to carrier servers to get upgrade eligibility. They won't have to do that for this launch.

    The app seems to fair better during those launches, so my guess is that is a good choice.

    Unfortunately for me, I have gift cards, and that means I have to use the website.
  25. bobdob macrumors newbie

    Sep 24, 2014
    I still can't believe the iOS Apple Store app doesn't take gift cards. I am in the same boat with a gift card. You can even add gift cards to passbook, but you can't use it to buy things on your phone that are made by apple and sold in their store.

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