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hftvhftv

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With the launch of the new ARM MacBooks and Mac Mini, how long do you believe it will be before the last Intel models such as the 2020 MBA and MBP models will start to become sought after much like the 2005 PowerPC Macs have become to collectors and those looking for unique capabilities that Intel Macs have such as being able to run Windows?
 
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Erehy Dobon

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There's also the ability to run macOS in a virtual machine fairly easily on an Intel Windows box (it's tougher to do on AMD powered boxes).

I would not consider a recent Intel Mac to be anything like a "collectible." There are millions of them in service right now.

Much of the functionality of today's Macs comes from cloud services. When these services are phased out or shut down, some of their utility will be gone. Look at Dashboard widgets.
 

velocityg4

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It'll take a long time.
- Way more Macs are sold per year now than in 2005.
- People use their computers on average much longer than models from back then.
- People are aware of a collectors market for old Macs. When people started dumping old PowerPC. Most old Macs were worthless. Now they are worth something. So many more will keep them and in good condition.

All that means there will be a lot of them out there for a long time. As rarity is a big part in collectors value. I'm guessing 30 years until they are worth much. Except the Mac Pro and iMac Pro. Due to their much lower sales numbers.

Just look at Macs around 30 years old now. Most are only worth $200 to $300 if in excellent condition and fully restored. Only the high end or oddballs with low sales volume get close to $1000. Also those with rare upgrades.

Heck even 40 year old Apple II aren't worth more than a few hundred. Unless in immaculate condition or loaded with accessories and upgrades.

One shocker is how much old CRT are worth especially big high end ones. People are interested in those old computers. But can't find a matching screen.
 

4sallypat

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I think Apple will still continue making high end Intel based computers like the Mac Pro, i9 MBP, Mini w/ 10GBe and iMac Pro until the ARM processors advance...
 

Erehy Dobon

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It'll take a long time.
- Way more Macs are sold per year now than in 2005.
- People use their computers on average much longer than models from back then.
- People are aware of a collectors market for old Macs. When people started dumping old PowerPC. Most old Macs were worthless. Now they are worth something. So many more will keep them and in good condition.
A handful of old Macs are still worth something. Most are still worthless. Only the ones in the best condition are worth something.

A fifty-year old Toyota might be worth something to a handful of collectors. For most people, it would be worth the space it took up in the garage. A ten-year old Toyota Corolla might be worth more, mostly for its parts. That's why 10-12 year old Toyotas and Hondas are the most frequently stolen vehicles in the USA. It's not for collectability but for parts value.

If you want to collect something, you were better off buying shares of NFLX or AMZN ten years ago, not a Mac.

Computers are expenses not investments. Holding onto a well-used computer for the hope in value appreciation is ill advised. Holding onto a never-used obscure device might be a little less risky.

In any case, I doubt if a recent Intel Mac will maintain its inflation-adjusted value for the next 20 years. You'd be better off buying some Class B shares of Berkshire-Hathaway.
 
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KPOM

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With the launch of the new ARM MacBooks and Mac Mini, how long do you believe it will be before the last Intel models such as the 2020 MBA and MBP models will start to become sought after much like the 2005 PowerPC Macs have become to collectors and those looking for unique capabilities that Intel Macs have such as being able to run Windows?
I doubt it. There are plenty of cheap Windows PCs out there if people just need to run an app or 2.
 

Kcetech1

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Nov 24, 2016
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I doubt ever except maybe a few for a few for nostalgia purposes in pristine condition. In 5 years if you need an old MacOS app from today, there's enough hackintosh images or VM's you can use that takes minimal skill to setup. And like the old MP cheesegraters you will be able to grab one cheap somewhere for years if you really want one.
 

cdcastillo

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I don't know if they will appreciate, but I'm certain they will get more difficult to find in the next 2 years. I work daily with certain windows exclusive software and several virtual machines that are key to my work. I need an intel machine capable of running windows in emulation, getting a windows laptop and carrying them both daily is not an option for me.

That's why I just upgraded from my 2015 13" rMBP to a new 16" MBP. Got the top of the line trying to squeeze the most years out of it. I might have jumped the ship, but I do not regret it (yet)
 

Danny1982

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Nov 9, 2020
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And what do you think about support of third party software for intel based macs? Till now the lifecycle of a mac is about 7/8 year. Will be the same for the latest intel based macs?
 

velocityg4

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And what do you think about support of third party software for intel based macs? Till now the lifecycle of a mac is about 7/8 year. Will be the same for the latest intel based macs?
Nothing definite. I only looked at a couple samples like Photoshop and Firefox. But it seems mainstream support ended five or six years after PowerPC was discontinued. The same may hold true for Intel.

An important factor is macOS support. Software accesses and makes use of new technologies in OS releases. If Apple ends support in lets say four years. Then a new Photoshop version comes out two years after. A version which needs one of those technologies no longer available for Intel Macs. Then Adobe will drop support.

It won't matter how big the remaining install base is of Intel Mac owners. They'll drop support out of necessity. As will any other software vendor.

Given that Apple won't complete the transition until 2022. Also that they usually support devices with new OS releases for a minimum of four years. Plus the time it takes software vendors to make use of new OS technologies. I think seven to eight years of third party Intel support is reasonable.

Then again. Who knows. With support for iOS apps and a much larger iOS install base. Some software vendors may opt to unify development and reduce costs.
 
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Xack

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Oct 27, 2016
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Companies that require large quantities of Macs like Macstadium are probably getting their contracts for the last generation of Intel Macs right now. WWDC 2021 or 2022 will see the final Macs being switched over and a date for end of production revealed. I’ve already been warning people to buy Intel while they can if they really need it as there will be a rush at the date of the last orders. It’s already too late for Macbook Air users. It will be the high end that rely on x86_64 assembly that will be affected the most. Hackintoshes can be used as a last resort.
 

cdcastillo

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And what do you think about support of third party software for intel based macs? Till now the lifecycle of a mac is about 7/8 year. Will be the same for the latest intel based macs?
As long as I can get my VMs to work, I really do not care for everything else to be up to date. I was still rocking software from 2006 in my Mojave 2015 rMBP. If it works, I'll keep using it.

Speaking of which, last night was an expensive one: Today in the small hours of the morning (I went to bed around 4 AM) I ended having to erase my startup disk and using internet restore: surprise! only Big Sur is available... I spent several hundreds of dollars upgrading my old software for uptodate versions that work on Mac OS 15.
 

GiantKiwi

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Jun 13, 2016
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surprise! only Big Sur is available... I spent several hundreds of dollars upgrading my old software for uptodate versions that work on Mac OS 15.

Not really all that surprising, as Big Sur was released on Thursday and every single release since about 2012 has followed the same process. New version on the store, old one disappears.

However: https://support.apple.com/en-gb/HT201372
 

Danny1982

macrumors member
Nov 9, 2020
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Italy
Nothing definite. I only looked at a couple samples like Photoshop and Firefox. But it seems mainstream support ended five or six years after PowerPC was discontinued. The same may hold true for Intel.

An important factor is macOS support. Software accesses and makes use of new technologies in OS releases. If Apple ends support in lets say four years. Then a new Photoshop version comes out two years after. A version which needs one of those technologies no longer available for Intel Macs. Then Adobe will drop support.

It won't matter how big the remaining install base is of Intel Mac owners. They'll drop support out of necessity. As will any other software vendor.

Given that Apple won't complete the transition until 2022. Also that they usually support devices with new OS releases for a minimum of four years. Plus the time it takes software vendors to make use of new OS technologies. I think seven to eight years of third party Intel support is reasonable.

Then again. Who knows. With support for iOS apps and a much larger iOS install base. Some software vendors may opt to unify development and reduce costs.
very good analysis. I think the same.
I bought a MacBook Pro 13" just this year with intel i5 10th gen and I hope that. I'm worried about your last point related to the support for iOS apps. It can probably be a turning point!!
 
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Danny1982

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As long as I can get my VMs to work, I really do not care for everything else to be up to date. I was still rocking software from 2006 in my Mojave 2015 rMBP. If it works, I'll keep using it.

Speaking of which, last night was an expensive one: Today in the small hours of the morning (I went to bed around 4 AM) I ended having to erase my startup disk and using internet restore: surprise! only Big Sur is available... I spent several hundreds of dollars upgrading my old software for uptodate versions that work on Mac OS 15.
Do you work with vm? but are windows vm or something else?
 

cdcastillo

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Dec 22, 2007
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Do you work with vm? but are windows vm or something else?
Virtual machines, mainly with windows, but also with other specialized proprietary software for neurophysiology tests. I also need some "office" apps (PDFs, automatic text expanders, MS office for collaboration, etc.)

I had some ancient 32 bit software that was a little long in the tooth, but that kept working altouhg officially unsoported. Anyhow, I seem to be up and running now. All I need now is to replace Scrivener 2 with scrivener 3 to be whole again.
 

Erehy Dobon

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I doubt it. There are plenty of cheap Windows PCs out there if people just need to run an app or 2.
While I have a nice custom built Windows gaming system, I also have a $170 Wintel box. I could easily run Quicken and Excel on this cheap box but having a notebook computer around is handy anyhow.

Alternatively you can sign up for a 1 year free trial of a basic Windows VM at Amazon EC2. I have done this twice to run Quicken for Windows via Microsoft Remote Desktop. If I had gone beyond the trial period, I figure I would have spent $3-4 per month.

I have also run Quicken on my Mac via Wine and VirtualBox.

Windows as a mainstream cloud service is on its way.

Earlier this year I replaced a $1650 MacBook Air 2019 with a $750 Windows ultrabook, an Acer Swift 3. The latter has less RAM and less SSD storage but the processor and integrated graphics are actually better.

There are some caveats. I expect to replace the Windows ultrabook earlier than I would the Air. Also, the Air comes free with very capable/well integrated office productivity (iWork) and multimedia (iLife) software suites. The Acer notebook came with useless bloatware. Thus, the Mac/Windows total cost of ownership is much closer than the sticker price difference.

The Acer's hardware (display, keyboard, trackpad) are less refined than the Air. That said, the cheapass Windows ultrabook is "good enough" for what I need.
 

ADGrant

macrumors 65816
Mar 26, 2018
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Nothing definite. I only looked at a couple samples like Photoshop and Firefox. But it seems mainstream support ended five or six years after PowerPC was discontinued. The same may hold true for Intel.

An important factor is macOS support. Software accesses and makes use of new technologies in OS releases. If Apple ends support in lets say four years. Then a new Photoshop version comes out two years after. A version which needs one of those technologies no longer available for Intel Macs. Then Adobe will drop support.

It won't matter how big the remaining install base is of Intel Mac owners. They'll drop support out of necessity. As will any other software vendor.

Given that Apple won't complete the transition until 2022. Also that they usually support devices with new OS releases for a minimum of four years. Plus the time it takes software vendors to make use of new OS technologies. I think seven to eight years of third party Intel support is reasonable.

Then again. Who knows. With support for iOS apps and a much larger iOS install base. Some software vendors may opt to unify development and reduce costs.
I don't agree that they drop support for OS upgrades on Macs after 4 years. I just retired a 2009 iMac that had High Sierra installed so it received OS updates for 8 years. However, Apple does classify a machine as obsolete after 7 years so I think 6 to 7 years is a reasonable expectation. Big Sur can be installed on many 2013 Macs. I don't think the PowerPC transition is a reasonable guide to the transition to ARM since the installed base is so much higher now and includes many enterprises.

Photoshop currently requires Moave and many other vendors support at least the last couple of versions of MacOS. I think therefore at least two years of vendor support after the last Intel compatible version of MacOS is reasonable.

So adding all those numbers together, I would expect a 2020 Intel iMac to be supported by vendors for up to 10 years but at least 8.
 
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JMacHack

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One shocker is how much old CRT are worth especially big high end ones. People are interested in those old computers. But can't find a matching screen.
If you're willing to slum it with 1024x768, you can pick one up for $20-$40. If you're looking to buy a Trinitron then be prepared to spend quite a bit unless you're buying from someone who has no clue what it is.

With the launch of the new ARM MacBooks and Mac Mini, how long do you believe it will be before the last Intel models such as the 2020 MBA and MBP models will start to become sought after much like the 2005 PowerPC Macs have become to collectors and those looking for unique capabilities that Intel Macs have such as being able to run Windows?
That's a hard question, because PPC Macs aren't valuable simply because they had a different architecture (though that does factor in!) They're valued because of the circumstances around them. I bought my iMac G3 a few months ago because I remember seeing them at school and on ads on TV and thinking they were so cool! It's the computer that saved Apple too, it's a sign of the triumphant return of Steve Jobs, it was unlike any other computer at the time, the list goes on. Look what Apple was at the time, the little guy fighting it out against the big giants of the industry, the guys who revolutionized the MP3 player with the iPod. It's just as much a sign of Apple nostalgia as it is a machine. With the Intel transition PPC died in the consumer market too, leaving some old games and software stranded, so some people got that nostalgic itch and kept those old machines around. I've even heard some guys (from this site no less!) say that Macs "aren't real Macs" without PPC.

Post-Intel Macs I can't see being as collectible. Intel's not going anywhere for a long time, even with their current issues. PC will just carry the torch for them instead of Apple, they can run pretty much anything Intel Macs can. Let's be real here too, Apple's position post-Intel is far, far different than it was pre-Intel. Apple's not the little guy anymore, the iPhone and iPad has turned the company into a giant. Steve's gone, and Tim Cook just doesn't have his panache. In fact, if Tim will be remembered, it'll be for the Apple Silicon transition or Apple Watch. Apple, and by extension Intel Macs just aren't "cool".

I'll keep my Mac Pro 5,1 around with me. Maybe it'll be collectible one day, but I doubt it.
 

acidfast7_redux

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Nov 10, 2020
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I type this on an iMac 8,1 (Early 2008) 24-inch.

I don't see any price appreciation in the UK, where the second-hand for all consumer goods is extremely strong. This would fetch around £200-250 from a real vendor that would stand behind the purchase. Not bad for a machine that was £1150 12 years ago!

I do see the hardware hold it's value really well (compared to other countries) and people use them until they turn to dust as this machine still works very well. I'll watch NFL via Game Pass on it tonight in my living room as I don't have a proper TV (no need really these days.)
 

Danny1982

macrumors member
Nov 9, 2020
72
28
Italy
I don't agree that they drop support for OS upgrades on Macs after 4 years. I just retired a 2009 iMac that had High Sierra installed so it received OS updates for 8 years. However, Apple does classify a machine as obsolete after 7 years so I think 6 to 7 years is a reasonable expectation. Big Sur can be installed on many 2013 Macs. I don't think the PowerPC transition is a reasonable guide to the transition to ARM since the installed base is so much higher now and includes many enterprises.

Photoshop currently requires Moave and many other vendors support at least the last couple of versions of MacOS. I think therefore at least two years of vendor support after the last Intel compatible version of MacOS is reasonable.

So adding all those numbers together, I would expect a 2020 Intel iMac to be supported by vendors for up to 10 years but at least 8.
I'm agree with you. I think that apple can't lose his face with its users like this!! At least the last Mac Intel sold must keep 7/8 years of support!
 

Danny1982

macrumors member
Nov 9, 2020
72
28
Italy
Virtual machines, mainly with windows, but also with other specialized proprietary software for neurophysiology tests. I also need some "office" apps (PDFs, automatic text expanders, MS office for collaboration, etc.)

I had some ancient 32 bit software that was a little long in the tooth, but that kept working altouhg officially unsoported. Anyhow, I seem to be up and running now. All I need now is to replace Scrivener 2 with scrivener 3 to be whole again.
Sorry probably I am going OT, but I'm very curious. I love Apple PCs (and probably this is the my only reason to use Mac computers), but you, why do you use Apple PCs?
 
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