Like you said, it's probably those who really want the 1) larger screen (and ok with it not being Pro Motion), 2) thinner more portable profile, and 3) max battery life. I don't disagree with you - I am not the target customer for the 15 MBA. To me, the 14" M1 version (new, let alone refurb) would be a better value today (especially given the default 16gb / 512gb it comes with). But there are people out there.What am I missing? Refurbished 14": $1539. The 13" already costs $1199, which will put the 15" at roughly $1399. In what world would anyone pick a 15" Air over the 14" that comes with 16GiB and 500GB by default as well as the XDR display...??? It is still readily available new from retailers too.
I can't be the only one who isn't excited for another brand new entry level device that has worse hardware than the Pro hardware from over a year ago. Similarly to how I would always pick the previous-gen iPhone Pro over the current-gen non-Pro. I really don't see the point.
I'm not taking the view that it's a bad investment. More that you can get effectively the same thing (3-5yrs usage) but at a lower entry price (especially if you're a base-model purchaser). All you give up is not being a Day 1 buyer.That's a good thing though, as the hardware ages discounts are the logical conclusion. You still get the full performance you paid for initially. All tech seems a bad investment if we look at it like that - but we shouldn't buy Macbooks as an investment. What does it matter that your base model with a solid 16GiB and 500GB wouldn't sell well? In 3-5 years you'll still get a couple hundred bucks back anyways if you sell it eventually. You'll find a buyer for that base model without problems.
I see this mindset a lot, buying a house, buying a car, whatever it is. Always wondering if it's a good investment. I don't buy these things as investments, I look at what will last me the longest, likely have to pay a bit extra for that, which is why I paid the Apple tax on the M1 Max upgrade, but now I don't need to care how much this thing is worth now or in x years. It will last long enough that the cost over 5+ years really doesn't even matter anymore.
I was really just observing that the time from launch -> time to discounts seems to have gotten shorter as of late. So the "cost of waiting" is decreasing. As a thought experiment, if you knew that Day 1 MBP 14" price is $1999, but literally the next week, it would be discounted to $1699, most ppl would think it makes sense to wait right? Doesn't change the fact that the product will last long, that you'll keep it for 5+ years, and that once you buy it you don't have to worry about the cost anymore. All still true. But you might as well pay less for it now, and use the saved dollars for something else.
That's all I was saying, just to a lesser extent. Just commenting as an historical Day 1 purchaser for many things Apple...