"Should be able to put their fears...behind them...", sure, but, as you say, "The public is stupid."
So...
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Public Skeptical of Self-Driving Cars Despite Race to Perfect Technology
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"Should be able to put their fears...behind them...", sure, but, as you say, "The public is stupid."
So...
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
This is basically a fear of technological change survey. Of course it skews toward the "as is" because this technological change is still out there enough that hardly anyone has experienced it. Responders are favoring the "what-they-know" option over the unknown, almost sci-fi option. This is the horse & buggy world facing the impending takeover of horseless carriages in another form.
I know a few people who have a fear of escalators and moving sidewalks. I know plenty of people with fear of flying. There's people on this site with fear of wireless (radiation). And on and on. The escalator people can make similar arguments for clinging to good old stairs... including spinning rationalizations such as better exercise, etc. The flying people can make arguments for travel by car, train & boat... including rationalizations based upon the occasional plane crash (ignoring how many, MANY more get to their destinations every day). The radiation people can make arguments for wired and/or not using cell phones or wifi at all... including rationalizations that wired does indeed deliver better quality and/or faster internet connections.
In short: it's what we do. We're afraid of technological change that is likely to affect us as individuals until it arrives and we get to experience it ourselves... or our circle of contacts is experiencing it and gushing about it. Sooner or later we embrace it and never look back. In my lifetime, there was a time when no one had a personal computer, no one had a laptop, no one had a cell phone, almost no one had access to the internet, no one had a HDTV, cruise control, microwave ovens, and on and on. Now having a microwave oven or a cell phone is normal... even ubiquitous, as in "how did anyone get by without one?". This will be no different.
Those arguing for the importance of controlling the car themselves should be making the same argument of being at the wheel of the bus or the stick of the plane, etc. too. In those modes of transportation, we- as passenger- are pretty much completely out of control of the "system" in play getting us from here to there. Sure there is a HUMAN in those systems today but that doesn't give you any more control of whether the bus or plane is going to get you there safely or be crashed. You just take your seat, engage in other activities (or even sleep) and some system completely beyond your control gets you to where you are trying to go. Is this really so different?
And it doesn't matter how we feel about the concept- it's coming whether we like it or not. Eliminating labor so that a computer does the driving will be cheaper than paying that labor a salary. Soon it will be over for the cabbies and probably bus drivers. It's probably over for the train conductors. It shouldn't be too long beyond that that airplane auto-pilots take over the whole job too. It is inevitable. Fear it. Loathe it. Worry about it. Etc. But it will be much cheaper so it will keep on coming.
Those of us most afraid of it might resist it... but sooner or later we will be exposed to it. The person afraid of flying eventually needs to fly to urgently get to somewhere in time. The person afraid of cell phone radiation eventually needs to use a cell phone for some reason. The persons afraid of escalators or moving sidewalks eventually are pressed to use one. Etc. They face their fear. They DON'T die a fiery death and, before you know it, they are using their own cell phone on a moving sidewalk to check their (flight) gate or baggage carousel number.
Step forward 10 or 20 years and run this same survey again. Responses will certainly significantly vary, implying a very different view of this new technology. Step forward 15-30 years and the same people showing fear of this change might be spinning how people ever got by wasting so much time on the mundane task of actually driving a car. How did people ever get by having to spend an hour cooking meals before the microwave oven? How did people ever get by having to use only wired phones? Without the internet? Etc.
Personally? Given the choice of being freed up from having to focus on driving a vehicle much as I am when flying, I'm extraordinarily enthusiastic about the concept. I'd much rather fill driving time with more interesting or productive activities (or even sleep).
I know a few people who have a fear of escalators and moving sidewalks. I know plenty of people with fear of flying. There's people on this site with fear of wireless (radiation). And on and on. The escalator people can make similar arguments for clinging to good old stairs... including spinning rationalizations such as better exercise, etc. The flying people can make arguments for travel by car, train & boat... including rationalizations based upon the occasional plane crash (ignoring how many, MANY more get to their destinations every day). The radiation people can make arguments for wired and/or not using cell phones or wifi at all... including rationalizations that wired does indeed deliver better quality and/or faster internet connections.
In short: it's what we do. We're afraid of technological change that is likely to affect us as individuals until it arrives and we get to experience it ourselves... or our circle of contacts is experiencing it and gushing about it. Sooner or later we embrace it and never look back. In my lifetime, there was a time when no one had a personal computer, no one had a laptop, no one had a cell phone, almost no one had access to the internet, no one had a HDTV, cruise control, microwave ovens, and on and on. Now having a microwave oven or a cell phone is normal... even ubiquitous, as in "how did anyone get by without one?". This will be no different.
Those arguing for the importance of controlling the car themselves should be making the same argument of being at the wheel of the bus or the stick of the plane, etc. too. In those modes of transportation, we- as passenger- are pretty much completely out of control of the "system" in play getting us from here to there. Sure there is a HUMAN in those systems today but that doesn't give you any more control of whether the bus or plane is going to get you there safely or be crashed. You just take your seat, engage in other activities (or even sleep) and some system completely beyond your control gets you to where you are trying to go. Is this really so different?
And it doesn't matter how we feel about the concept- it's coming whether we like it or not. Eliminating labor so that a computer does the driving will be cheaper than paying that labor a salary. Soon it will be over for the cabbies and probably bus drivers. It's probably over for the train conductors. It shouldn't be too long beyond that that airplane auto-pilots take over the whole job too. It is inevitable. Fear it. Loathe it. Worry about it. Etc. But it will be much cheaper so it will keep on coming.
Those of us most afraid of it might resist it... but sooner or later we will be exposed to it. The person afraid of flying eventually needs to fly to urgently get to somewhere in time. The person afraid of cell phone radiation eventually needs to use a cell phone for some reason. The persons afraid of escalators or moving sidewalks eventually are pressed to use one. Etc. They face their fear. They DON'T die a fiery death and, before you know it, they are using their own cell phone on a moving sidewalk to check their (flight) gate or baggage carousel number.
Step forward 10 or 20 years and run this same survey again. Responses will certainly significantly vary, implying a very different view of this new technology. Step forward 15-30 years and the same people showing fear of this change might be spinning how people ever got by wasting so much time on the mundane task of actually driving a car. How did people ever get by having to spend an hour cooking meals before the microwave oven? How did people ever get by having to use only wired phones? Without the internet? Etc.
Personally? Given the choice of being freed up from having to focus on driving a vehicle much as I am when flying, I'm extraordinarily enthusiastic about the concept. I'd much rather fill driving time with more interesting or productive activities (or even sleep).
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Please keep the discussion on-topic.
We have the Politics, Religion, Social Issues forum for discussing gun control and other social issues.
...and back to vinyl again: the way things are going, with racks of LPs popping up in supermarkets while CD sales are decimated by downloads. Moral: some things are not rational.
However, I'd suggest that self-driving cars are a bigger "quantum leap" than the CD was (technically: building on existing tech from digital electronics and the laservision player, socially: just another way of packaging an LP - the compact cassette and, later, the recordable CD had a far bigger effect on the music industry).
That simple system wouldn't be able to mix with the system we already have (human drivers).
We'd have to spend tax money on special roads that only those cars could use. That would piss people off, so those special roads wouldn't be built. Nobody would build cars compatible with the special roads, because those special roads wouldn't exist. It's a chicken and egg problem that prevents that "simple" system from existing.
We're going for full autonomy because it can mix with human drivers.
Road safety is very important, no doubt. But can we pump the brakes on the hyperbole about auto related deaths? Fact is, in the past 5 years our roads are safer than they've ever been. Even with more cars than ever on the road, driving is still safer than it has been. Fact is, relative to the number of cars on the road daily, deaths are a rare occurrence. These facts are US related. The world numbers may differ.
Would self driving cars contribute to making them safer? Absolutely (if done correctly). There are tons of perfectly valid reasons to advocate self driving cars. Fear mongering about about millions of deaths is not one of those reasons.
The ironic thing about all the death talk? The two countries that could most benefit from self driving cars will probably be the least likely to adopt them in a timely fashion. China and India. Nearly 40% of all auto deaths occur in those two countries.
Would self driving cars contribute to making them safer? Absolutely (if done correctly). There are tons of perfectly valid reasons to advocate self driving cars. Fear mongering about about millions of deaths is not one of those reasons.
The ironic thing about all the death talk? The two countries that could most benefit from self driving cars will probably be the least likely to adopt them in a timely fashion. China and India. Nearly 40% of all auto deaths occur in those two countries.
All true. But you must understand why people could be anxious about ceding control to a computer that helped kill someone by accident. (Yes, perhaps he should've been more involved in his driving, but that doesn't change the fact that the car couldn't tell the difference between the sky and a truck.)
The cost of space flight included many humans, and even they knew it and bought in anyway. In the case of autonomous cars, the test pilots are us. Not like beta testing software. We'll get there but people should be forgiven for feeling a little nervous getting behind the wheel of an automated vehicle. Or no wheel.
I'd put Google's miles driven / at fault accident vs any human. I think you would find it isn't even close to the human being better.
Wow, sorry for your loss. Obviously you lost a loved one to one of the people you described in your post. It will be interesting to see how far they can go with self driving cars, personnly I like doing the driving myself.
I'm not skeptical of the technology at all. I'm confident that reliable autonomous vehicles are possible.
I just have zero interest in it. I like cars. I like to drive. I like to be in control, even if I make a mistake. I like the fact that my car does not track everywhere I go.
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People still love riding horses, and they still do. I think autonomous vehicles are great, I just don't want one.
I just have zero interest in it. I like cars. I like to drive. I like to be in control, even if I make a mistake. I like the fact that my car does not track everywhere I go.
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People still love riding horses, and they still do. I think autonomous vehicles are great, I just don't want one.
A good way to "off" someone. Pay a child to jump in front of a self driving car programmed to run into a wall instead.
Please cite your source for the last 5 year decrease in fatalities.
Does the report factor in the fact newer cars have higher survivability rates? Seat belt laws / usage, air bags, anti-lock brakes, crumple zones etc... make an accident less likely to kill you...
US Fatalities went up in 2015 by ~ 7%
Source: https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812261
The stats for 2015 aren't available yet. The report is longer than a giraffe's neck so I don't know if it delves into causality. Even if it does, that would still go towards my assertion that the roads are safer.
Self-driving cars are also building on existing technology. My six-year-old Prius has radar-assisted cruise control, and a lane-keep-assist feature that actually nudges the steering wheel to keep you in your lane. If you let go of the wheel, it won't actually keep you in your lane, but cars that do keep you in your lane are available now. Self-driving cars are not a quantum leap at all. They will only seem that way from certain vantage points.
Right now we're at the beginning of the process ("Sure, flying is possible, but no one will want to travel in those cramped, noisy, scary contraptions when trains and boats are so much more comfortable"). And once the transition is complete, we'll marvel at how little time it took, and how much it changed our lives (in ways we don't even anticipate, such as...just kidding).
I used to laugh at the idea that computers would lead to a "paperless office", because what I saw around me was that the combination of computers and laser printers was leading to more and more paper, as people printed out documents just to read or take to a meeting. Now I rarely see people using the laser printer. Nothing gets handed out at meetings. We have our tablets and phones for portable reading. More importantly, the boxes of used paper destined for offsite storage or a shredder service have vanished.
As for going back to vinyl, that's just a nostalgic anomaly, like playing 8-bit video games. Yes, the CD is suffering from streaming and downloadable music, but it's unlikely we'll see vinyl ever re-emerge as the standard. Over a century after cars took over personal transportation, people still ride horses. Horses didn't go away. Human-drivable cars won't completely go away. You can still cross the ocean by boat. You can churn your own butter and raise chickens in your yard. You can take pictures with an "instant" camera or even one that uses 35mm film.
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The quantum leap is when the driver is safely able to let go of the steering wheel and start updating their Facebook page. A "quantum leap" means there is no intermediate step. Here, the intermediate step, where the driver lets go of the wheel but stands ready to intervene, is simply impractical because drivers won't pay attention. Also, driving along a freeway, staying in lane and keeping the correct distance is the simplest and safest mode of driving - navigating around a town will be much, much harder.
Well yeah, they were right: nobody in their right mind would submit themselves to the cramped, noisy conditions of economy class to save a few hours on the train. Moral: never assume that the majority of people are in their right mind. Also, nobody in their right mind would have predicted that it would be cheaper to go by plane than boat, road or train.
Until recently, the paperless office was about as practical as the paperless lavatory.
Took about 35 years by my reckoning, and not everybody is there yet. People still keep handing me pieces of paper...
This is the dumbest idea I've ever seen people actually try to implement in my lifetime. Honestly, how hard is it to figure out why this is bad? How many programs with any amount of complexity have you used which work perfectly? Hello, we can't even get a phone or a word processor right! Things which have very clearly defined input, and no unknown external factors. Some of you actually want to put your lives in the hands of programs? Are you insane? I'm in no hurry to redefine the meaning of the term "computer crash".
I like driving. Feels good to be behind the wheel. I just want something that'll park my car for me.
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Sure, versus the average human, but I think both my parents currently have better records than the autonomous cars. I've never been in a car accident either, but I've only been driving for 4 years (though I drove a lot more than average during those years, particularly on dangerous parts of Sunset Blvd).
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The other thing is that it doesn't matter how good/safe of a driver YOU are, it only takes one out of control idiot to cause an accident. So in other words, not only do YOU need to be perfect all of the time, everyone else also needs to be.
I like driving myself (I even purchase manual cars in preference to automatics if possible), but I can see the advantages to autonomous cars. Like any advanced technology, we'll get there--and when it arrives we'll wonder how we did without it!
That is one long drive from Canada to Florida. Then I agree, my autonomous (If and When I get one) car can take over any time during that trip.
For people who don't love to drive, driving is a huge waste of time. There are so many other things a person could be doing during travel time. Also, this will allow handicapped people better transportation options. Self driving can't come soon enough.
As a pedestrian and sometime cyclist, I try to always catch the eye of a driver when I am crossing the street, passing an intersection on my bike, etc. With autonomous vehicles on the road, how can I be sure the vehicle "sees" me and doesn't just plow into me when I attempt to cross in front of it? I would have to be very confident that the vehicle's sensors are 100% accurate - a tall order.