Randy Ubillos duped Steve Jobs?

Discussion in 'Mac Apps and Mac App Store' started by robains, Jun 30, 2011.

  1. robains, Jun 30, 2011
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2011

    robains macrumors regular

    robains

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    #1
    Think about this one.

    Randy produced the first three versions of Adobe Premiere ... moves around a little and finally Apple pickup Final Cut (note this was done as a defensive move by Apple who wanted to find a buyer elsewhere at a later time). So Randy is stuck with Apple who are reluctant to provide much funding and/or resources towards Final Cut Pro.

    Apple finally starts bringing in the big money and Randy's thinking "great!", finally I'll have a budget and resources to really produce the best post production software available to high end and low ends of the market.

    Well that doesn't happen, Steve doesn't provide the funding or resource to really take Final Cut to the next step. So Randy is busy trying to make the best out of what little he has ... and it shows with the very low "new feature" count that comes out over the years. But Randy makes a mark with his limited resources and FCP 3 started to bring in serious post production attention.

    But Steve Jobs is still just not that interested in "Pro" applications and Apple didn't even have a booth for them in NAB 2009. So this has got to be a pretty frustrating "adventure" for Randy. Steve Jobs is now full time into iThis iThat iCanDoAnything ... MacPro hardware and "Pro" applications just don't register on Steve's "importance" radar.

    So in Randy's frustration with Apple/Jobs, he contacts Adobe testing the waters for a return to Adobe. A plan forms with Adobe (nothing illegal). So Randy meets with Steve to discuss the next version of Final Cut Pro. Knowing that Steve lacks interest, Randy comes up with the idea of a "Cheap" for "the masses" version of FCP called FCP X. Steve loves the idea, it's cheap, doesn't require much attention, and is for the masses that and might help sell more iThings ... screw the Pro's, Apple never wanted a "Pro" application anyway.

    So, Steve takes the bait, Randy produces an "iMovie Pro" under the name of FCP X -- Randy knows it's going to fail (and it is failing) and awaits his departure from Apple to be hired back by Adobe ... who now no longer need to worry about Apple being a threat to their "Pro" application suite.

    Do the research, see the pieces fall together. Maybe Randy will get one up on Steve after all these years.

    Rob
     
  2. thejadedmonkey macrumors 604

    thejadedmonkey

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    #2
    You're 100% correct, except for 2 points.

    1. You're assuming Randy is out to screw over Steve Jobs/Apple
    2. You're assuming that Apple is going to let FCPX stagnate and not update it/respond to critisism.
     
  3. chown33 macrumors 604

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    #3
    3. The word is "duped".

    I was wondering what "dupped" meant, just hoped it wasn't a misspelled "tupped".
     
  4. SatyMahajan, Jun 30, 2011
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2011

    SatyMahajan macrumors regular

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    #4
    Steve Jobs is a CEO, which means he's responsible to the board and shareholders for strategic vision that leads to shareholder value (i.e. lots of revenue and profits). Selling 20 million copies of FCPX to consumers, prosumers and all-in-one pros is $6 billion in revenue. Selling 2 million copies of Final Cut Studio to pros is $2 billion. Thus FCPX adds shareholder value. As far as vision, his vision has ALWAYS been the same: simplify. FCPX follows this model as well.

    So it's simple really and no need to overanalyze. This product and all other recent Apple products are the result of math, shareholder value, and a CEO who is willing to execute on vision, regardless of who it pisses off.

    I feel sad for the pros, and as a pro user of Logic, I worry about the future of that software. However, there are lots of GREAT alternatives for pro users in both audio and video (Pro Tools, Avid MC, Premiere Pro, etc.).
     
  5. interrobang macrumors 6502

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    #5
    I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
     
  6. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #6
    Where did you get those sales numbers from? Anyway, some flaws in that logic/vision.

    1. It doesn't take into account that Pro's purchase substantial Apple hardware to support FCP -- in fact MacPro's and XServe exists primarily because of FCP.

    2. Apple will not sell even close to 10X more copies of FCP X (you should read some of the many refunds threads) than they did FCP 7. There just isn't a market for FCP X. Too expensive for those happy with what iMovie can do and not enough features to meet Pro demands -- it's a product aimed in "no-mans" land. Those projected sales numbers are completely fabricated guess work (even more so given the current refunds being given on FCP X) ... it's NOT a vision and it is NOT good for the shareholders. It's bait, hook, line, and sinker from Randy and Steve is the fish.

    3. I stand corrected, "duped".

    4. Yes that is my assumption that Randy wants to stick it to Steve, human nature when one is screwed by someone else, they want to return the "favor" -- FCP X is that favor.

    5. FCP X has a listed set of updates (for soon and sometime this summer), however, Apple has also made it clear these updates are not going to match current FCP 7 functionality -- not now and not in the future. Key Pro level features just aren't going to be implemented.

    Lets see what happens, but when the "refund" rate of FCP X is as high as it is ... I can't see this being a "good" Vision nor good for the shareholders ... who probably don't care about Pro applications nor Pro hardware ... only things that have a "i" in front of them matter.

    Rob
     
  7. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #7
    gnaborretni ¿í - you already have
     
  8. grooveattack macrumors 6502a

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  9. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #10
    Didn't Osama bin Laden say the same thing...
     
  10. carylee2002 macrumors member

    carylee2002

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    #11
    Steve Jobs and his "I" mentality

    I guess according to Steve Jobs...there is no "I" in the word Team is there? Nor the letters "WE" either. It's all about me and the shareholders profits.
     
  11. weckart macrumors 68040

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    #12
    While there is no 'I' in Team, there is certainly 'Me' there and always has been.
     
  12. THX1139 macrumors 68000

    THX1139

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    #13
    This is how conspiracy theories start. The start off as conjecture and innuendo, then they take on a life of their own.
     
  13. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #14
    That's how all theories start, from E=MC² to MacRumors.

    FCP X isn't going to produce anywhere close to the revenue FCP 7 did, not now, not in the near future, not this summer (regardless of promises). By the time there is a "major" upgrade (pay again) available, most post production shops wanting to stay in business would have moved along and/or simply just dropped FCP.

    The market is this:

    1. Video phone dude (dudette) wants dumps direct to YouTube or whatever, doesn't care about video editing nor how bad his/her footage is ... gives it that "reality" show look ;) -- NO post production at all -- 75% of the market
    2. BestBuy camcorder dude (dudette) drops $300-$1000 on a camcorder to record their trip to Europe, family, whatever so they can put up on facebook/youtube, etc. -- wants to cut out the really bad stuff, maybe add some text to tell a story iMovie does that just fine -- 20% of the market
    3. Has a nice camcorder $1500 and/or video camera ($3500) serious enthusiast, maybe wants to do this for a living not sure yet, but enjoy working with post production -- possible FCP X buyer -- 5% of the market
    4. The Pro, does this for a living. FCP 7 does more than FCP X -- 0% of the market

    So FCP X is looking at #3 ... that's the market it's aimed at ... not a very big one and certainly no where near as big as 1, 2, or 4.

    Keep in mind many post produciton shops use more than one editor. These shops can't just turn clients away saying "please wait for Apple to update FCP X". Afterall, like Ron Brinkmann (former Shake developer) said, do not rely on Apple.

    Keep an eye on Randy, lets see where this goes. IMHO, FCP X is a very clever move (by Randy) to make Steve Jobs look like a complete Tool.
     
  14. soLoredd macrumors 6502a

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    #15
    Jobs looks like a complete tool? How so? The guy is A+ in the consumer market - the market Apple failed to attract 10+ years ago. Even if FCPX flops to nothingness (which I doubt it will), that will have no effect on the perception of Steve Jobs.

    Apple in 2011 is all about selling to the masses, not the niche "pro" market. Hell, one could argue that Adobe and certainly Avid need the pro market a helluva lot more than Apple.
     
  15. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #16
    Not a complete Tool to the outside world, but certainly within the company.

    Apple needs the "Pro" market to sell their very expensive "Pro" computers (aka MacPro, MacBookPro). I can't tell you how many times I've seen companies fail again and again and again when they think:

    Apple is in the hardware AND software business. Just ask AMD how important it is to have the best product in a niche market. Or for that matter ask Intel. Intel's top tier processors are a tiny part of their market sales, but without them, they couldn't sell their 2nd or 3rd tier products to the masses.

    It is this disconnect that will expose Jobs as not understanding the market place as a whole. Sure, have vision, sell to the masses, but NEVER EVER ignore the niche top tier ... it's a fatal mistake companies keep making time and time again. Microsoft agrued the same "sell to the masses" and look at how that giant has fallen ... still kicking, but lost dominantion.

    The niche is where you find innovation, where you find "vision", it's a vital part of the whole. It's why auto companies fight to have the fastest, best handling car sports car ... they know it's tiny % of what they sell, but it's what keeps the masses wanting their less expensive options. This is not new, but all too often companies like Microsoft, Apple, Intel, IBM lose site of just how important it is to have "the best" or at least be in competition with "the best".

    Yes, Adobe are VERY pleased with FCP X. :) Probably celebrating actually.
     
  16. rockinrocker macrumors 65816

    rockinrocker

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    #17
    I see what you did there.
     
  17. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #18
    And yet another "Pro" confirming the death of "Pro" applications from Apple.

    Helmut Kobler's move to Adobe

    The only thing Helmut didn't seem to realize is that Apple NEVER really wanted Final Cut from the day they bought the company.

    To highlight some of Helmut's points again:

    There just isn't going to be any big FCPX "upgrade" nor will FCPX ever be a "Pro" application again. And I still maintain that Randy will have the last laugh ... Steve just doesn't get it yet, probably too much ego from his recent success, happens when one feels they can't "do wrong".

    Rob
     
  18. d4rkc4sm macrumors 6502

    d4rkc4sm

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    #19
    FCPX is like OS X 10.0. People hated change. It was so new. It lacked most of the features of the last version. Things will improve. FCP X will rock. Disgruntled pros will eat crow. Your hypothesis blows.
     
  19. robains thread starter macrumors regular

    robains

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    #20
    I love change for the better ... too bad it wasn't change for the better. Don't really want FCP X to "rock", would prefer it to just be better than FCP 7 which FCP X is not and will never be -- no magical pixie dust here.

    But keep the faith or not, the bottom line is Job's doesn't care if you do or don't -- that's the real message. Eating crow isn't relevant, we move on to the here and now, not the "wait and see".
     

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