Resale value next year?

[Presonance]

I know this seems a little early, but hear me out.

I'm stuck between the 42mm space grey aluminum and 42mm stainless with sport band. I have enough disposable income to buy either, but knowing me, I'm probably going to buy the next generation when it comes out, selling my existing watch as I generally do when upgrading.

So the question is: how much do you think the going rate would be for a one-year old watch? I always keep my stuff in like-new condition. Do these numbers sound plausible to you?

Sport: $220 used ($399 new)
SS: $400 used ($599 new)

 

[J4B3]

Nobody really knows but here are two things to reconcile: 1.) Apple products usually have great resale value 2.) Wearables have terrible resale value.

$200-220 seems reasonable for the aluminum model. I would however estimate $280-320 for the SS model. The reason being that people who are buying used are looking for a bargain and generally have less disposable income -- this is why more expensive models always take the biggest hit on resale value. Second, if someone had $400 to spend on an Apple Watch, it's really hard to argue why they shouldn't just buy the brand new Apple Watch 2, unless they just really like SS. Third, the 2nd gen will probably have more sensors and more materials and it's possible that the SS's biggest selling feature (sapphire glass) will trickle down to less expensive models as they improve manufacturing efficiency.

 

[Patriot24]

I'm going to say that market value one year in for a used watch in good condition will be $75-$100 off of retail price.

If you buy a Sport next week for $399, it should resale in one year for ~$300.

 

[twisted-pixel]

25% saving after 1 year? I doubt that. The battery will be at best maybe 60% of its original capacity. Watch will no doubt be scratched and used. For the 99 bucks I'd buy new

 

[Patriot24]

25% saving after 1 year? I doubt that. The battery will be at best maybe 60% of its original capacity. Watch will no doubt be scratched and used. For the 99 bucks I'd buy new

You may buy new instead, but there will be a massive market for used units. iPhones and iPads enjoy very high value retention and resale prices despite seeing new models, some of which are generational leaps, each year. For the most part, resale prices are close to what Apple sells refurbished devices for, and we all know that you don't get much of a discount there.

 

[Mr.C]

25% saving after 1 year? I doubt that. The battery will be at best maybe 60% of its original capacity. Watch will no doubt be scratched and used. For the 99 bucks I'd buy new

I very much doubt that the battery capacity will be down to only 60% in one year. It will still be at or close to 100%.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

I'm going to say that market value one year in for a used watch in good condition will be $75-$100 off of retail price.

If you buy a Sport next week for $399, it should resale in one year for ~$300.

good luck with that.

I second 200 for AL and 300 for the SS best case scenario. Maybe less if gen 2 bands aren't compatible with gen 1.

 

[kingofwale]

I know this seems a little early, but hear me out.

I'm stuck between the 42mm space grey aluminum and 42mm stainless with sport band. I have enough disposable income to buy either, but knowing me, I'm probably going to buy the next generation when it comes out, selling my existing watch as I generally do when upgrading.

So the question is: how much do you think the going rate would be for a one-year old watch? I always keep my stuff in like-new condition. Do these numbers sound plausible to you?

Sport: $220 used ($399 new)
SS: $400 used ($599 new)

250 used Sport
350 used for SS.
... stupid too stupid to buy gold version...


feel free to quote/bump this one year from now.

 

[Multiverse223]

I very much doubt that the battery capacity will be down to only 60% in one year. It will still be at or close to 100%.

Absolutely. He doesn't understand how they work I don't think. By that I mean I know for a fact he doesn't know how they work. First of all generally speaking they say 500 cycles it's down to about 80% and it wouldn't be anywhere near 500 cycles in a year.

 

[Patriot24]

good luck with that.

I second 200 for AL and 300 for the SS best case scenario. Maybe less if gen 2 bands aren't compatible with gen 1.

My thoughts mainly depend on two factors:

History - no Apple device that I'm aware of has lost 50% of its value only one year after launch (other than maybe iPod shuffle?)
Success - how popular the product is will dictate the resale value. I currently believe that the Watch will be very popular

Time will tell.

 

[Presonance]

Nobody really knows but here are two things to reconcile: 1.) Apple products usually have great resale value 2.) Wearables have terrible resale value.

$200-220 seems reasonable for the aluminum model. I would however estimate $280-320 for the SS model. The reason being that people who are buying used are looking for a bargain and generally have less disposable income -- this is why more expensive models always take the biggest hit on resale value. Second, if someone had $400 to spend on an Apple Watch, it's really hard to argue why they shouldn't just buy the brand new Apple Watch 2, unless they just really like SS. Third, the 2nd gen will probably have more sensors and more materials and it's possible that the SS's biggest selling feature (sapphire glass) will trickle down to less expensive models as they improve manufacturing efficiency.

Appreciate the feedback. Great point about people buying used looking for a bargain.

I hadn't considered that wearables had terrible resale value. Do you have any examples of this?

----------

I'm going to say that market value one year in for a used watch in good condition will be $75-$100 off of retail price.

If you buy a Sport next week for $399, it should resale in one year for ~$300.

Thanks for chiming in. My thought was that Apple may continue selling the 1st gen at a $100 discount as they do with iPads and iPhones, so I thought $300 sounded a bit high for a used one. But Apple may want to keep margins especially high for such a new product, so I'm not sure.

 

[J4B3]

Appreciate the feedback. Great point about people buying used looking for a bargain.

I hadn't considered that wearables had terrible resale value. Do you have any examples of this?

----------

Sure, the most popular being FitBit bands and Jawbone UP bands. One year later and they have lost a minimum of 60% of their value according to eBay sales. Garmin Vivo fit, a bit better, but still a large hit. These are primarily fitness trackers, and used fitness equipment carries a its own stigma so results may be skewed.

Smartwatches separately haven't faired too much better, but the LG G Watch is less than 1 year old and and be bought for about $60 (orig $229.99). The Samsung Gears are about $80-100 (orig $199-299).

The best results came from the Moto 360 ($249) and LG G Watch R ($299), selling for $150-180 and $190-220 respectively. Although these are less than 7 months old.

All purely anecdotal, but still somewhat insightful. No way to know how the Apple brand will affect resale.

 

[mattopotamus]

No one can really answer this. It could be very hard to sell in the second hand market making resale value terrible. Best case, I would hope for 50% of the price originally paid.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

My thoughts mainly depend on two factors:

History - no Apple device that I'm aware of has lost 50% of its value only one year after launch (other than maybe iPod shuffle?)
Success - how popular the product is will dictate the resale value. I currently believe that the Watch will be very popular

Time will tell.

The iPhone is 650 retail and sells for 300 1 year later, significantly more (400+) in the weeks before the next version is announced.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Get the base model (namely Sport) if you want to recoup as much of your cost after one year. This is true when selling most things including iPhones and vehicles.

 

[Exile714]

A lot of this depends on how well the screens hold up. I think the Sport could take more of a hit in resale value with its Ion-X screen than the sapphire screen, though resale for either won't be much.

 

[Piggie]

Let me give you a sensible answer that will be very true.

The resale value of this model with totally, and I mean TOTALLY depend on what advances the next model offers.

If the next model is just a little tweak here and there, 95% the same, then the resale value of this 1st model will stand up well, as new buyers will be happy to buy the old model as it's a saving and the new model is not that much better.

If the model is OMG that's is amazing, this is THE watch Apple always wanted to release all along, but they felt pushed to get the 1st model out the door ASAP and under pressure so things were held back. The extra year has allowed them to do all they wanted and it's a MAJOR improvement.

Then the value of the 1st watch will plummet like a stone.
Who wants the v1, when the v2 is so so SO much better?

That's the honest answer, and no one will know this until another year+'s time when we see what another year+ has allowed them to improve.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Let me give you a sensible answer that will be very true.

The resale value of this model with totally, and I mean TOTALLY depend on what advances the next model offers.

If the next model is just a little tweak here and there, 95% the same, then the resale value of this 1st model will stand up well, as new buyers will be happy to buy the old model as it's a saving and the new model is not that much better.

If the model is OMG that's is amazing, this is THE watch Apple always wanted to release all along, but they felt pushed to get the 1st model out the door ASAP and under pressure so things were held back. The extra year has allowed them to do all they wanted and it's a MAJOR improvement.

Then the value of the 1st watch will plummet like a stone.
Who wants the v1, when the v2 is so so SO much better?

That's the honest answer, and no one will know this until another year+'s time when we see what another year+ has allowed them to improve.

You obviously don't speak from experience. The resale value of a used one-year-old iPhone has remained consistent year after year regardless of what the new iPhone has to offer.

 

[Piggie]

You obviously don't speak from experience. The resale value of a used one-year-old iPhone has remained consistent year after year regardless of what the new iPhone has to offer.

That's generally because the steps between phones is not THAT much, and the main function remains unchanged.

Phone calls, browse the web, play games etc, and a very slow shaving of weight and thickness.

If the v2 watch had 10 body sensors, half as thick, lasted a week on a charge, and had a vastly better screen, no one is going to want the old one unless it was dirt cheap.

Of course that won't happen. Apple, even if they could would not do that.
They will drip feed improvement year upon year.

The only reason Apple does anything dramatic is when they are forced to by losing sales.

You really think the iPhone 6 and 6+ would be out now, looking at they are now without Android?

 

[twisted-pixel]

Absolutely. He doesn't understand how they work I don't think. By that I mean I know for a fact he doesn't know how they work. First of all generally speaking they say 500 cycles it's down to about 80% and it wouldn't be anywhere near 500 cycles in a year.

You have no facts at all. I worked in battery technology for over a year. I guess We'll see in a years time

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

That's generally because the steps between phones is not THAT much, and the main function remains unchanged.

Phone calls, browse the web, play games etc, and a very slow shaving of weight and thickness.

If the v2 watch had 10 body sensors, half as thick, lasted a week on a charge, and had a vastly better screen, no one is going to want the old one unless it was dirt cheap.

Of course that won't happen. Apple, even if they could would not do that.
They will drip feed improvement year upon year.

The only reason Apple does anything dramatic is when they are forced to by losing sales.

You really think the iPhone 6 and 6+ would be out now, looking at they are now without Android?

Exactly correct that it won't happen so your argument is moot in the first place.

 

[Piggie]

Exactly correct that it won't happen so your argument is moot in the first place.

It's not an argument, it's a statement of fact.

If Apple feel like they have no competition, they won't bother doing much and will deliberately hold things back in reserve for v3.

None of this we shall know until next years.
Too many variables.

May turn out the be the biggest most expensively hyped flop in the tech industry. Or the next iPhone.

We shall just have to wait till a year+ time and take it from there.

 

[ob81]

Probably low. It depends on compatibility with new bands, and if they make drastic updates to the next gen. This is a fashion item for most people. It is hard to sell last seasons $80 jeans to some of these people.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

That's generally because the steps between phones is not THAT much, and the main function remains unchanged.

Phone calls, browse the web, play games etc, and a very slow shaving of weight and thickness.

If the v2 watch had 10 body sensors, half as thick, lasted a week on a charge, and had a vastly better screen, no one is going to want the old one unless it was dirt cheap.

Of course that won't happen. Apple, even if they could would not do that.
They will drip feed improvement year upon year.

The only reason Apple does anything dramatic is when they are forced to by losing sales.

You really think the iPhone 6 and 6+ would be out now, looking at they are now without Android?

The difference between iPhone 4 and 4S was minor while iPhone 4S to 5 was huge, resale value was the same tho.

Regardless on how good or not good gen 2 is, gen 1 will depreciate.

 

[Arran]

...I hadn't considered that wearables had terrible resale value. Do you have any examples of this?

No examples (because I don't buy second hand) but here's a thought experiment: How much is second hand clothing worth?

Consider an item that a complete stranger has worn next to their skin for a full year. 7 days a week.

It's going to be scratched and worn. They'll have sweated in it, showered in it, slept in it and maybe even done other things in it!

Would you want to buy it? How much would you offer?