Resale value next year?

[Piggie]

No examples (because I don't buy second hand) but here's a thought experiment: How much is second hand clothing worth?

Consider an item that a complete stranger has worn next to their skin for a full year. 7 days a week.

It's going to be scratched and worn. They'll have sweated in it, showered in it, slept in it and maybe even done other things in it!

Would you want to buy it? How much would you offer?

How many times will an Apple watch get within inches of your bum on the toilet.
If you "use" your left hand for that, you are, in effect almost putting the watch into the top of the un flushed toilet pan, and around a bum being wiped perhaps a few 100 times a year

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

It's not an argument, it's a statement of fact.

If Apple feel like they have no competition, they won't bother doing much and will deliberately hold things back in reserve for v3.

None of this we shall know until next years.
Too many variables.

May turn out the be the biggest most expensively hyped flop in the tech industry. Or the next iPhone.

We shall just have to wait till a year+ time and take it from there.

Your speculation isn't a statement of fact.

 

[Bazooka-joe]

How many times will an Apple watch get within inches of your bum on the toilet.
If you "use" your left hand for that, you are, in effect almost putting the watch into the top of the un flushed toilet pan, and around a bum being wiped perhaps a few 100 times a year

Sorry but you are completely wrong. There is a huge market for used watches. Many jewellers sell used high end watches. Are you saying that there is no market for used Rolexes and other designer watches.

 

[lewisd25]

Consider an item that a complete stranger has worn next to their skin for a full year. 7 days a week.

It's going to be scratched and worn. They'll have sweated in it, showered in it, slept in it and maybe even done other things in it!

Would you want to buy it? How much would you offer?

This argument would also apply to cell phones...we all know what people use on the toilet...yet that doesn't have a major effect resale value.

 

[Wahlstrm]

Looking at how Apple do things nowadays with the iphone and the ipads, then
Apple will probably keep selling the first gen for $100-150 less so you can probably get a 100-150 below that. 400 today = $150-200 in a year.

If the bands still work with the watch2 then the various metal bands might be worth more than the actual watch in 12-18 months..

 

[Cashmonee]

I would not buy based on what I thought the used value will be in a year. There are far too many variables to get even a real ballpark answer. First, no one knows if there will be a new watch next year. I expect there to be, but perhaps Apple changes up the refresh cycle. Next, how well the watch is received in the market will be important. We don't know if this be a home run or a dud. You also have to consider what the actual battery life ends up being. If a new one is released, is it dramatically better? Do they find that there are issue with the band attachment and so Gen 2 has a different version? Do they sell the previous year model at a discounted price?

This is a whole new product. We can predict iPhone prices because there are 8 years of history there and it is a well established market. The watch has exactly zero history in a nascent market that has yet to be accepted by the public. If it is popular, works well, the market picks it up, and the next watch isn't hugely different, then I think the prices will be in line with other Apple products. If it doesn't resonate with the public at large, the next gen adds something like GPS or 6 more hours of battery, it needs a major redesign because once a million people got it they figured some things out, etc, then the resale will be rather poor.

 

[TallManNY]

No examples (because I don't buy second hand) but here's a thought experiment: How much is second hand clothing worth?

Consider an item that a complete stranger has worn next to their skin for a full year. 7 days a week.

It's going to be scratched and worn. They'll have sweated in it, showered in it, slept in it and maybe even done other things in it!

Would you want to buy it? How much would you offer?

Watches get sold used all the time. People aren't grossed out that an old Rolex has been used for years.
My current SS watch is about 7 years old. It doesn't look scuffed at all and I basically only take it off to play basketball or to go through airport security. And if I wanted I could take it to be buffed out professionally and I think it would look even better. I don't know if the aluminum watch will be as durable, but the SS AWatch with Link band should look about the same for years of normal use.

 

[Piggie]

There is little point comparing a second hand Rolex which is as functional today as it was last year and will be for the next 20, 40, 100 years as a used purchase that holds it's value.

Against an Apple watch which is going to be a stone dead gadget in 5 to 10 years

 

[TallManNY]

Looking at how Apple do things nowadays with the iphone and the ipads, then
Apple will probably keep selling the first gen for $100-150 less so you can probably get a 100-150 below that. 400 today = $150-200 in a year.

If the bands still work with the watch2 then the various metal bands might be worth more than the actual watch in 12-18 months..

Wow. Very good point. I actually haven't heard anyone talk about the second generation as being done in this manner. It seems like folks are acting like second generation will completely replace the first one. Now I think that will be the case for the Edition version. That will be limited and they will discontinue models each year or two. But I could see the Sport watch getting lowered in price but still being sold. The Apple Watch will need to come down in price for it to really catch on with a sizeable percentage of people. But Apple can do this by driving production costs down.

 

[bigred7078]

There is little point comparing a second hand Rolex which is as functional today as it was last year and will be for the next 20, 40, 100 years as a used purchase that holds it's value.

Against an Apple watch which is going to be a stone dead gadget in 5 to 10 years

Selectively responding I see... Why am I not surprised...

 

[dannn]

Assuming it's updated in a year, I'd say 38mm Sport will go for $200 (from $350) and the SS will go for $400 (from $550)

 

[KauaiBruce]

This argument would also apply to cell phones...we all know what people use on the toilet...yet that doesn't have a major effect resale value.

And I would bet we ALL know at least one person who dropped their phone in a toilet. I never did that but I have TWO friends that did. My husband FINALLY stopped putting phones in his top pocket after losing TWO in our creek and one dropped into the cat water dish.

At least the watches are not likely to fall off our wrists.

 

[dalestrauss]

People always overlook "realized resale" vs "resale value." To say the Sport will "sell" for $299, after shipping, PayPal and eBay fees you'll realize about $250. My bet is these will be going on eBay for $250 a year from now - but getting a little over $200 sounds pretty good to me for re-investment purposes if the next version is really worth the upgrade. I just hope Apple doesn't start an "s" cycle like the iPhone were you get a bump in some internals but have to wait two years for a substantial redesign.