RIM will survive. HP's about ready to buy something again. The two-headed clown that run's rim currently however doesn't have a chance.
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I think they'll be dead within 4 years
According to Nielsen, they're still the #2 smartphone manufacturer in the US with BB OS having almost 3x the market share of Win Phone 7.
I remember powering on a girlfriend's Blackberry once-- "why does it take 10 minutes to start up?
RIM should focus heavily on corporate services.
Only way i see them survive.
RIM is going to get bought by google for their patents, google will then look for ways to envelope their tech into The Googleverse.
As far as people carrying around a BB... it's not going away tomorrow but they clearly have no vision. There are people who are addicted to the BB, people who won't leave an actual keyboard, and their international market in places like Indonesia, Thailand, and India is growing. People love BBM there as it's a cheap replacement for the SMS they have had to pay for for 20 years. Come to Asia and you will see flocks of girls with BBs hanging around their necks from necklaces with bling all over it. The BB is a big thing out here... and it just got here a few years ago. iMessage is awesome, but the rollout is terrible and people are confused on how to sign up and use it. BBM on the other hand is simple and PIN based. Apple really needs to work on how iMessage works and goes viral.
The QNX based handsets on the horizon look abysmal and RIM is seriously like Detroit in the sense that they can't seem to design a decent handset. With Asia and Europe running circles around them design wise.
The talent left the RIM boat over the last year or so and that doesn't help. They seem to be a slow boat toward a new reality... their market in the US, EU will never be the same... they have a future in 3rd world markets where they can push backed on BBM...but they will never dominate again. Clearly those two guys who were running that company were very closed minded and egotistical. Not visionary and open minded like SJ. Maybe they should have taken LSD and study medication in India like the MAN!
I am a MacHead and still carry a BB 9700 because the iPhone was a disappointment. The email always has to download, which takes a moment, the contacts seem to be constantly syncing... and that slows me down. The BB handles changes quick and effectively. I had iPhone 1, 3G, skipped 3GS and 4... I will have my 4S in a few days and I really hope that it does what I hope it can do...so I can finally, after 15 years, get away from the BB and go 100% Apple
Just my two cents