Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2012 Earnings Call

[Mal]

Awwh, I knew I went wrong somewhere -- 'somewhere' being 'in my entire memory'.

Never mind. That still means they might announce new products tomorrow, right? /patheticallyhopeful

It's always possible. Apple has basically tossed out all their previous conventions when it comes to product updates. It's possible they'd release an update on Friday, when before they showed a preference for Tuesdays. There's really no telling anymore...

jW

 

[chrmjenkins]

let's see, analyst expectation from me:
- down from holiday quarter
- up year over year

Get this man a medal

 

[bushido]

i love how those analysts always come up with random numbers like "29,46" god forbid they predict "29,47" xD

 

[cvaldes]

Awwh, I knew I went wrong somewhere -- 'somewhere' being 'in my entire memory'.

Never mind. That still means they might announce new products tomorrow, right? /patheticallyhopeful

Sure, anything is possible, although it seems extremely doubtful given the lack of rumors that are typical when a new release is imminent.

If Apple were about to release something within days, we would have seen leaked photos of various parts, channel partner out-of-stocks, shipping times jumping on the Apple Store, new product SKUs in channel partner inventory systems, vacation blackout dates/all-hands staff meetings at Apple Retail Stores, mysterious deliveries of marketing materials/POS/signage, new product identification strings in developer releases of OS X/iOS, stuff like that.

If anything would be announced, it would be a minor upgrade, a speed bump since Apple did not send the media any invitations to a live event (they typically do so about a week before the event to give time for writers to book travel).

 

[foodog]

I have my analyst dart board for making predictions... Stock goes up, Stock goes down, Stock stays neutral.

I suck at darts and missed the board. I predict Apple announces its filing Chapter 11.

 

[bbeagle]

Apple's track record has been as follows:

Financial Conference Call: Only announce that there is 'some new product' in the next quarter, and leave it vague.

Media Events: For new products, major upgrades (and minor upgrades on products which are selling well)

No announcement, appear in the store immediately: Minor upgrades for desktops, laptops, Apple TVs, Airports, and accessories.

 

[mrtune]

I know looking at past earnings is no proof of future earnings.

As much as we all believe that the analysts are crazy for posting numbers that Apple previous record breaking quarter (through a holiday season no less), it is possible for Apple to still beat their estimates. Even though I personally think it won't happens and is a long shot.

Last quarter Q1 2012 Apple posts around 73% year over year growth (26.7B > 46.3B).

Last year for Q2 2011 they posted around 82% year over year growth (13.6B > 26.7B)

This year with the crazy 42B estimates and with last years 26.7B they're predicting around a 57% increase. Not completely impossible given they did much better than that just last year.

 

[whooleytoo]

Real smart to compare this quarter to a xmas quarter.

And not just that, but there was a lot of pent-up demand for a new model (3G/3GS users, and everyone who wants to buy early in the cycle). Little wonder they had such a massive quarter then.

 

[ipoppy]

looking forward to short

 

[Avatar74]

None of the insider activity is of enough volume to suggest anything. Institutionally owned 70%, the market makers are probably disposing of the stock because the valuations made by Wall Street hypesters aren't built on a solid foundation... signaling a sell opportunity since the public has now eaten up what Piper Jaffray, et. al. had pumped about the stock.

Shrewd investors know to zig when others zag. That's how they make money... at the expense of gullible speculators who pay more attention to what everyone else is dumb enough to pay (market price) and not enough attention to what the operating/carrying value of the enterprise really is.

NOTE: I seem to recall someone in another thread taking out a personal loan to buy AAPL stock, saying "It's going nowhere but up." I seem to recall an entire industry saying the same thing about the housing market, not realizing what factors affect inputs of supply and demand (hint: not everyone out there without a house is a qualified buyer; replace "house" with "iphone" and you get the idea).

 

[nylonsteel]

re original article

asymco's - horace dediu

i want to name my cat horace dediu - fine analyst - great name

 

[sparks05]

Institutional analysts will underestimate sales in the Asia Pacific region, especially in China with the introduction of the iPhone 4S by China Unicom, a major carrier carrying iPhones for the first time. Analysts like linear numbers... But these numbers are exponential and this region is growing much faster than the rest....

We have a poll going here where you can actually vote and discuss your best guess of iPhone numbers: http://www.valuefolio.com/apple-q2-2012-iphone-estimates/

Right now it looks like the average guess is 35 million...

 

[Avatar74]

Institutional analysts will underestimate sales in the Asia Pacific region, especially in China with the introduction of the iPhone 4S by China Unicom, a major carrier carrying iPhones for the first time. Analysts like linear numbers... But these numbers are exponential and this region is growing much faster than the rest.... .

This is an oversimplification because, among numerous other caveats, it ignores the fact that China's entire electronics market, in terms of total revenue, is 1/16th the size of the United States electronic market. So there's really no "sky's the limit" argument especially for a maker of premium electronics who would have to compete with even cheaper Asian-manufactured products that have no import tariffs, etc, and a well established base among consumers who, per capita, have far less disposable income and far less spend on electronics.

It's worth noting that are two types of analyst: Wall Street analysts who use inflated estimates to promote liquidity in the general market to the benefit of their High Net Worth Clients and institutional clients who may be advised contrarily, and business analysts employed by the company itself who do actual forecasts with actual inputs to provide a to-the-dollar estimate of where we expect operating revenues to land.

Guess which one I am...

 

[needfx]

That's when I bought. Everyone at the time said I was an idiot.

A very real question is, "How high can it go?"

I'm not selling anytime soon, but I have doubts about the $1000 projection.

you should scan a portion and use as an avatar!!

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NOTE: I seem to recall someone in another thread taking out a personal loan to buy AAPL stock, saying "It's going nowhere but up." I seem to recall an entire industry saying the same thing about the housing market, not realizing what factors affect inputs of supply and demand (hint: not everyone out there without a house is a qualified buyer; replace "house" with "iphone" and you get the idea).

nice!

 

[cadillac1234]

Wall Street....

Throw out stupid numbers to prop up a stock....
Beat the stock down with speculative crap about missing misleading numbers...
Get 99.1% of all rumors wrong....

Rinse and repeat...


And yet these guys make millions in bonuses for providing consistently wrong information.

 

[Avatar74]

Wall Street....

Throw out stupid numbers to prop up a stock....
Beat the stock down with speculative crap about missing misleading numbers...
Get 99.1% of all rumors wrong....

Rinse and repeat...


And yet these guys make millions in bonuses for providing consistently wrong information.

Technically the Volcker Rule is supposed to limit reaping benefits from this information disparity (by banning prop trading on information contrary to what advice was given external clients)... but there are always reasons, both innocent and deliberately malfeasant, as to why the gap still exists and is still capitalized upon.

This is why I don't listen to analysts, friends, or even my own inner voice of self-deception on a "hot stock"... Once a stock is "hot" there's a pretty good probability that it's already overpriced. But the argument from modern portfolio theory and efficient markets hypothesis goes something like this: Everything you could possibly know about future opportunity has already been priced in. (which relies on the monumentally flawed assumption that all players know all facts about all securities at all times.)

Now you have to ask yourself one simple question:

If speculators have already assigned a premium to a given security based on things that have yet to happen, why would you want to buy it?

-or, put another way-

Doesn't it make far more sense to find securities priced BELOW their carrying value, so that you're the guy who sells to the speculative fool who later drives up the price of the asset you already bought?

Obi Wan Kenobi was more than just a crazy wizard...

 

[BuddyTronic]

Just bought a decent load of May AAPL 590 calls for 12.88 a few minutes ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL120519C00590000

This is a yoyo that I hope to make some coin on.

Or be butchered a little bit - but I can take it.

I think the upside is huge to own calls. They are really pricey, but that just affirms to me that it's going to come in. I usually sell covered calls, but today I'm buying!

Go Apple!

This means I am sure it will be over $603.00 by May 19th for those who follow my genius advice haha!

 

[rdowns]

Revenue $39.2 billion
EPS $12.30

35.1 million iPhones sold
11.8 million iPads
4 million Macs

 

[iMikeT]

AAPL crushes again.

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Up to 585 aftermarket.

EDIT: Make it 590.

 

[147]

Awwh, I knew I went wrong somewhere -- 'somewhere' being 'in my entire memory'.

Never mind. That still means they might announce new products tomorrow, right? /patheticallyhopeful

can't help it either keysofanwiety, you gave me hope. I'll be eagerly awaiting tomorrow evening (europe's time), hoping to see new products launched. Talking about pathetic

 

[mbh]

Just bought a decent load of May AAPL 590 calls for 12.88 a few minutes ago.

...

This means I am sure it will be over $603.00 by May 19th for those who follow my genius advice haha!

Good call! AAPL just hit $603 in after-hours trading.

 

[BuddyTronic]

Just bought a decent load of May AAPL 590 calls for 12.88 a few minutes ago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL120519C00590000

This is a yoyo that I hope to make some coin on.

Or be butchered a little bit - but I can take it.

I think the upside is huge to own calls. They are really pricey, but that just affirms to me that it's going to come in. I usually sell covered calls, but today I'm buying!

Go Apple!

This means I am sure it will be over $603.00 by May 19th for those who follow my genius advice haha!

Booya!

Another good call - haha.

Now what? Sell them tomorrow and double or triple up? Or double down?

How do I double down? Gotta think about it now.

I might be into selling some May 700 covered calls now.

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Good call! AAPL just hit $603 in after-hours trading.

Thanks very much!

Yes, there was just so many things that caused me to do this.

I think I have to sell these calls now, because the time premium decay issues will be neutralizing some of the profit. But I dunno.

I think I will sell 50% of my calls tomorrow and hold the rest to see if my prediction comes in all the way.

I think I will also sell covered calls on my shares for something around 700.

Also I think DOW is gonna hit 14K in the next 2 months, and my standing prediction of DOW 20K for 2014 (or did I say 2013? gotta go back and check that), is good also.

Wow! Why work? I should be a stock broker!

 

[cvaldes]

looking forward to short

Please let us know when you do.