Since all they can do is guess and 41-43 are the only numbers from someone in the know, that's a clever thing to do.
Then generate some random number in between so everybody believes you might actually know something.
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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call
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Since all they can do is guess and 41-43 are the only numbers from someone in the know, that's a clever thing to do.
Then generate some random number in between so everybody believes you might actually know something.
Grows or not, how much the grow, all of these are just some factors for the calculation. The real thing matters is the projected earnings for 3 or 5 years later. Amazon stock went up because it is projected to dominate an industry thus a somehow warranted future profit. The similar applies to Google.
Apple is totally the opposite story, since it is projected to continuously struggle at a low market share of everything it participates with thus unpredictable future profit level, which definitely cannot support its original super-high stock price. The so-called price drop is simply a correction (maybe a little over-reacted by now) from a previous overly-optimistic price.
Apple traditionally low-balls guidance. This means Apple's internal projections are also higher than official guidance (just like the analysts). This in turn means Apple does procurement for its internal estimates, not the formal guidance.
So it all is, in fact, consistent.
My guess. "Record profits. Slowing Mac sales but iPhone and iPad sold a bajillion units"
Stock market response: "we are lowering your value"
Stock market response: "we are lowering your value"
I guess it really depends on if you agree with this projection or not. I personally think it's overly pessimistic. I think your market share getting lower doesn't matter if you profit share remains the same yet your sales are growing exponentially.
Market share is very dependant on the size of the industry, and as it is, the industry is mostly expanding so fast because of low-profit products, some of which actually make competitors struggle to even achieve profitability. Signs of a decreasing profit share in an industry that's not expected to grow would be a bad sign, but it's not the case.
Right now, Apple keeping its profit share while losing market share means competitors are just lowering their profit margins. Most do just to stay relevant in this competitive market. Just the fact that they do shows Apple is far from doomed. It's not like selling your devices nearly at cost just so that Apple doesn't get an monopoly is their ideal plan.
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The affiliated analysts are conservative. It is not difficult to figure out why. The markets know the analysts are conservative (and that companies tend to guide even more conservatively). So this is why beating guidance is essential (it is the lowest bar), and beating guidance but failing beat the Street is still treated by the markets as a miss. Stock trading reacts accordingly.
Before anyone says this only happens to AAPL, this is not true. Just last week, for example, GE met Street expectations but fell 4%.
Perpetual Exponential growth is not possible. Apple grew revenue last qtr, but didn't grow how analysts expected. There's a difference between stagnating and someone throwing out an arbitrary number and saying "you have stagnated" if you don't meet that number.
When apple actually stagnates that's when anything these "analysts" say can make any sense.
Actually, not. Even the best case scenario has Apple earning less this quarter than in the same quarter a year ago. We haven't see this happen in about ten years.
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Declining earnings is stagnating.
Exactly, so why do you want this particular company's (which has significantly slowing growth) stock to be priced as if it is?
Thats nice and all.. but when is WWDC 2013?! I want to have something to look forward to
Yeah i think whe all excited to see iOS 7 and maybe some new product; time is going really so cant complaint whe just need to wait a bit more.
yes and that hasn't happened yet. Like I said, if apple declines then we can talk about it.
I don't. I think the stock is priced just right. What's ridiculous is the stock tumbling because some "analyst"said it should grow exponentially, when it can't.
Which is why the 2pm PST conference call is just as important as the 1pm PST earnings report.
Conference call should be interesting. Tim Cook is going to get drilled on future products and if he pulls the norm and says "Great stuff in the pipeline". Watch the after hours stock price drop significantly.
I realize you were probably kidding, but it does go the other way too. People get mad at Apple every time they announce or update anything. They get mad when they don't announce something at the exact same time they did last year. They might as well just ignore the whiners and keep doing what they're doing.
Sure, a company can grow as close to "forever" as realistically matters. The question is at what rate. At 20-30% a year as Apple had been growing? Probably not. But 10% a year is not out of the question, if the new products keep coming.
Yes, it has happened, you are just in denial about it. Nobody is forecasting YoY growth, and even if by some miracle they managed to squeak out more a few pennies more in EPS this year compared to last, the margin would be too small to really matter.
Not really. The markets are looking 3-6 months down the road. One or two quarters, at most. As an investor you would do well to look beyond that horizon, but you will have to accept that the markets are not pricing the stock for the long term.
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Stocks are always priced "just right," by definition. As for the other part, you just don't get it at all.
The talking heads over at the live chat said somebody purchased 500K shares at 4PM indicting some positive news.
fwiw
fwiw
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