Serenity is already a huge success
That was careless of Mal. Then again, a bit later he had plans OTHER than death for the Operative.
BTW, the movie didn't underperform: Joss Whedon and his fans would have loved to see this movie (with no known stars) immediately exceed expectations and open as the #1 movie overall. Instead, it opened as the #1 NEW movie, and as the #1 movie in revenue per screen (it just wasn't shown in as many theaters as Flight Plan, the #1). Also, the falloff from Friday to Sunday wasn't bad, it was good: it was less than the falloff for other movies.
Universal has said two encouraging things: 1) They have no set number target they need to meet to make sequels, and are not rushing to make that call. And 2) The opening weekend numbers are just what they predicted--not worse. Universal is happy, they are behind the movie, AND they are thinking ahead to DVD sales too.
Also, supposedly sequels tend to make more money than the originals (regardless of quality).
The success of this movie always was, and still is, expected to be a slow and steady one, fueled by word of mouth (and now some great reviews!) not by star power or a big marketing budget. In fact, I know people who have avoided seeing the movie right away BECAUSE they are so interested: they want to see it in "proper order" and are waiting to watch/rent the DVDs of Firefly first!
But it needs to get the CHANCE to have steady, prolonged sales. That means it has to stay in theaters. And THAT means the second weekend is important. Because theaters have a 2 week commitment, and then they can opt to keep a movie or not. Second weekend numbers are always lower--but how MUCH lower? If the dropoff next weekend isn't too much, then audiences are liking the movie and it will stay in theaters making money for Universal.
So we haven't won our sequels yet--but nobody realistically expected that. It would have been neat to say it was #1 and sequels are for sure, but Universal makes the decisions, and they have made no such expectations.
Two other points in Serenity's favor: 1. The movie paid for 1/4 of its cost in one weekend. That is unusually good for a sci-fi movie. And 2. This is Joss Whedon's first movie, and it came in on time and within budget. Studios like that! Not to mention, it came in within a SMALL budget--without LOOKING like it had a small budget. A very economical investment, then.
I almost hope the movie doesn't QUITE make it to sequels, and that a series returns sometime. I know, I know--we've been told a new series is impossible.
But we were also told a movie was impossible! And we got a good one that's widely liked by all audiences--and makes a great conclusion to the Firefly story even if there aren't sequels. Something to keep in mind when reviewers call Serenity sales "disappointing" just because it's only #2. (What about movies #3, 4, and 5? Failures every one?)
It's a movie that appeals to many demographics, but fits no known model. People have heard of it maybe, but aren't sure what to make of it. The TV connection may be perceived as a negative, however needlessly. So people decide to "wait and see" how it's received. Now that the great reviews are out, it's time to stop waiting and start seeing
This is a HUGE success story, not a failure. And I think it WILL get sequels, even if that decision isn't made until after the DVD is out.
To quote for the umpteenth time: "We have done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."