Getting back Stateside this morning to set up my new iPhone:
1. Unpair watch from iPhone 13
2. Set up phone as new and download 16.0.1
3. Set up Esim from Hard sim iPhone 13 with ATT&T
4. Restore iPhone from backup of iPhone 13 on Mac
Would this be a good method?
Sure...
I just did a direct transfer but it did fail the first time. The eSIM will transfer over with the direct transfer method. It's the first thing it does and will prompt you on the old phone saying it's SIM will be deactivated. I can't say for sure about other methods because I didn't try them. I think if you get your carrier involved they will charge you $35 or about that.
I don't think unpairing the watch is necessary if you're restoring from a backup or a direct transfer. I didn't but it did have to go through a pairing process so maybe the same thing.
Scroll down to "Use eSIM Quick Transfer on iPhone" and it lists how to do it. Some people here said they tranfered their physical SIM to an eSIM on the old phone first but I don't think that's necessary. I went from eSIM to eSIM but it does say you can go from physical SIM to eSIM in that article.
Learn what an eSIM is, how to set up an eSIM on your iPhone, and how to transfer a physical SIM to an eSIM.
support.apple.com