Although, I think the OEMs will sell them cheaper because of competition. Say Dell, Sony and HP release towers and laptops with OS X, and HP sells them £100 cheaper than Sony and Dell to increase sales, which do you think will sell more? The cheaper, obviously. Therefore, Sony will make a cheaper one, then Dell will make a even cheaper one.
And then OS X suffers from the same tyranny as Windows does. And OS X users suffer from the same tyranny as Windows users.
Apple will be driven to make OS X as compatible as possible in order to maximize the number of licenses they can sell, because they will only make money by shipping software. And that drive for compatibility will suborn things like security, stability, usability and elegance.
Apple will loosen their driver quality control standards to allow more hardware to work with the OS, which means we will see misbehaving hardware and hardware that might impact the stability of the base OS.
Application development will become "faster and looser" because as the install base grows, application developers will no longer spend the time and money to make their applications "great" because they won't have to in order to get people to buy it. When you're selling to a market of 10 million, you need to be good to sell a million copies. When you're selling to a market of 50 million - or 100 million - you don't.
And what of the iPhone and iPods? The software (iTunes / Music Store / App Store) drives the sale of those hardware. What happens when iTunes starts to work like WMP? Or when Apple starts raising prices on music and Applications (with the full support of the studios and labels and developers) to extract more revenue from the user community? We'll save money on our Macs and spend more on our iPhones and iPods.
And since the iPhone uses OS X, as OS X devolves, so will the iPhone's OS. Soon our iPhones will work like a Windows Smartphone. And owning and using a Smartphone, I can say that they are not.
OS X will become Windows and all the things that repelled us from Windows and drew us to OS X will appear in OS X. And again, I am honestly not trying to be flippant or whip up FUD. I've used Windows from 1.0 to Vista x64 daily. I've worked for Microsoft and know plenty of Windows OS and application developers.
And, of course, Microsoft will not just stand by and watch Apple divert a substantial part of their revenue stream away.
About the only good thing I can see is that Apple is quicker at updating OS X then Microsoft is at updating Windows. But I expect that as the OS X codebase expands and sprawls, it will become as convoluted and unmanaged as Windows and OS releases will stretch out to many years, as well.
Call me selfish or call me a snob. I want to pay £1000 for a current MacBook Pro with a stable OS X and stable applications then £500 for a future MacBook Pro with an unstable OS X and unstable applications. My time is worth far more to me then £500. Or £1000, for that matter, which is why I moved from Windows to OS X a year ago.
🙂