TDP doesn't mean much. When Intel introduced the first batch of the 45nm refresh Penryn they had the exact same TDP classes although test showed them to suck only 2/3 the power of the 65nm generation.
The same TDP calsses means little. It is still odd though that there is such a little clockspeed increase and still the same TDP classes when Intel promised 22nm TG to be like a two node step. If it was more clock speed or lower TDP classes should have been even in the first batch.
Nobody really knows until tests show up.
They might just play it safe as AMD is not threatening them and 22nm is rumored to have some problems much like 40nm at TSMC had. Haswell also looks better in comparison if they make IvyBridge look worse than it is on paper. Chances are they will release lower TDP chips a few months after the launch much like as it was with the 25W Penryn.
Well they certainly don't have any threat from AMD in the mobile space (and sadly with Bulldozer flop not in the desktop space anymore either). But I am inclined to think that Intel may have been overstating in the first place the benefits that IB would really bring. I expect that Haswell or one beyond (the name doesn't come to mind now and I'm too lazy to look it up) is where we'll see big improvements.
To me IB, at least on paper, doesn't look like it is the huge jump that Intel and others said it was going be.