Smart buy now or wait?

[ant the ninja]

Hey All,

I currently have a 2018 ATV and a 2021 ATV. My 2018 is starting to slow down and have some issues so I was thinking of moving the 2021 ATV to the bedroom and upgrading to the latest model for the living room but is it a waste right now? Should I hold out in case another one drops soon?

The buyers guide says its neutral and the last one came out in October of 2022 so I am not sure if I should just hold off or just grab one now.

What would you do?

 

[fwmireault]

It's hard to say because it seems that Apple increased the pace of Apple TV updates recently, but it's still unclear if they will update it every 18 months or go back to a 2-3 years upgrade cycle. I would say just buy one, they are not very expensive and even if a new one is released next year, the chip in the 2022 model is much more powerful than what tvOS needs, so you'll have a smooth experience for a long time.

 

[ant the ninja]

It's hard to say because it seems that Apple increased the pace of Apple TV updates recently, but it's still unclear if they will update it every 18 months or go back to a 2-3 years upgrade cycle. I would say just buy one, they are not very expensive and even if a new one is released next year, the chip in the 2022 model is much more powerful than what tvOS needs, so you'll have a smooth experience for a long time.

That’s what I was thinking. Now I need to figure out if I want to spend the extra $20 and grab the 128gb model to have Thread support. Although since my 2021 model has it already, I’m not sure I’ll need it for the newest one. Hmmm

 

[niteflyr]

That’s what I was thinking. Now I need to figure out if I want to spend the extra $20 and grab the 128gb model to have Thread support. Although since my 2021 model has it already, I’m not sure I’ll need it for the newest one. Hmmm

$20 gets you twice the storage and ethernet also. Go for it!

 

[Juicy Box]

I currently have a 2018 ATV

I think you mean 2017 ATV4K1. There wasn't any new ATVs in 2018.

Should I hold out in case another one drops soon?

The ATVs are one of the harder devices to guess when the next one might be out.

While it isn't an exact science, there is a little bit of a pattern. Not counting the original 1st gen from 17 years ago, every other model has been released in pairs, with a long wait in-between. The first one of the pair (2 out of 3 times) has been a significant change over the previous generation, and the second one of the pair has been a performance increase (3 out of 3 times).

2010 ATV2 New design and UI
1.5 years later
2012 ATV3 Same design and UI as ATV2, just with 1080p and faster chip

3.5 year break

2015 ATV4 (HD) New design and UI
2 years later
2017 ATV4K1 Same design and UI as ATV4, just with 4K and faster chip

3.5 year break

2021 ATV4K2 Same design and UI as previous pair, and a chip that was only slightly better than the 2017 ATV4K1
1.5 years later
2022 ATV4k3 Slightly updated passive cooling design and same UI, larger storage option and faster chip.


Again, not an exact pattern, but maybe enough to make a better educated guess.

If this holds for another round, it won't be until around the Spring of 2026 before Apple releases a new ATV.


But, there are things that might Apple break the pattern, one being that it kind of already broke it with the 2022 ATV4K3 being fanless.

Maybe Apple might stick with what ever chip makes most financial sense, and upgrade sooner. An example is the A12 in the 2021 ATV4K2, it wasn't really that much of an upgrade over the A10X in the 2017 ATV4K1.

One issue that may prompt a sooner than later upgrade from Apple is the fact that the A15 in the fanless 2022 ATV4K3 has bad thermal throttling issues for gaming, making it perform worse than the A12 in the ATV4K2 in some situations. Maybe Apple might use a 3nm A17 for the ATV4K4, since it would run faster and cooler than the super hot A15.

It does get really hot too, some people have been resorting to active heatsinks to cool it for some games:

So, what does all that mean for you:

What would you do?

If Apple doesn't break the upgrade cycle pattern listed above, it could almost 3 years until the next ATV.

I wouldn't wait, and just get one now. They are great devices, and even if you plan on playing games on the AV4K3, a lot of games runs just fine without a fan.

If you don't play games, you don't need the Ethernet, and you already have an ATV4K2 with thread, maybe consider finding a good deal on the 64GB version of the ATV4K3.

 

[estabya]

I agree with the other posters; just get one now.

We have a 2017, 2x 2021s and a 2022 in our house, and for our normal use (steaming music/video apps and some light gaming) they all still provide a pretty much identical experience.

I’m confident the 2023 will last long into the future no matter how soon they come out with an update.

 

[ant the ninja]

I think you mean 2017 ATV4K1. There wasn't any new ATVs in 2018.



The ATVs are one of the harder devices to guess when the next one might be out.

While it isn't an exact science, there is a little bit of a pattern. Not counting the original 1st gen from 17 years ago, every other model has been released in pairs, with a long wait in-between. The first one of the pair (2 out of 3 times) has been a significant change over the previous generation, and the second one of the pair has been a performance increase (3 out of 3 times).

2010 ATV2 New design and UI
1.5 years later
2012 ATV3 Same design and UI as ATV2, just with 1080p and faster chip

3.5 year break

2015 ATV4 (HD) New design and UI
2 years later
2017 ATV4K1 Same design and UI as ATV4, just with 4K and faster chip

3.5 year break

2021 ATV4K2 Same design and UI as previous pair, and a chip that was only slightly better than the 2017 ATV4K1
1.5 years later
2022 ATV4k3 Slightly updated passive cooling design and same UI, larger storage option and faster chip.


Again, not an exact pattern, but maybe enough to make a better educated guess.

If this holds for another round, it won't be until around the Spring of 2026 before Apple releases a new ATV.


But, there are things that might Apple break the pattern, one being that it kind of already broke it with the 2022 ATV4K3 being fanless.

Maybe Apple might stick with what ever chip makes most financial sense, and upgrade sooner. An example is the A12 in the 2021 ATV4K2, it wasn't really that much of an upgrade over the A10X in the 2017 ATV4K1.

One issue that may prompt a sooner than later upgrade from Apple is the fact that the A15 in the fanless 2022 ATV4K3 has bad thermal throttling issues for gaming, making it perform worse than the A12 in the ATV4K2 in some situations. Maybe Apple might use a 3nm A17 for the ATV4K4, since it would run faster and cooler than the super hot A15.

It does get really hot too, some people have been resorting to active heatsinks to cool it for some games:
View attachment 2243929

So, what does all that mean for you:

If Apple doesn't break the upgrade cycle pattern listed above, it could almost 3 years until the next ATV.

I wouldn't wait, and just get one now. They are great devices, and even if you plan on playing games on the AV4K3, a lot of games runs just fine without a fan.

If you don't play games, you don't need the Ethernet, and you already have an ATV4K2 with thread, maybe consider finding a good deal on the 64GB version of the ATV4K3.

Thank you for this awesome post!! I actually had a bunch of points with my employers so I ended up going with the 128gb version for $80 so I'm happy. Hopefully a new one doesn't come out this year but if it does, oh well. I upgrade my phone every year but I usually skip the ATVs until necessary, I really cant imagine it doing much more than it already does but we will see!

I don't notice too much of a difference between my 2017 and my 2021 other than the remote, which was a welcome upgrade. I don't game on it so maybe that's really where the upgrades shine like you said.

Thank you again!

I agree with the other posters; just get one now.

We have a 2017, 2x 2021s and a 2022 in our house, and for our normal use (steaming music/video apps and some light gaming) they all still provide a pretty much identical experience.

I’m confident the 2023 will last long into the future no matter how soon they come out with an update.

Agreed, they do all seem very similar. I'll pick up my new one today!

 

[jwolf6589]

Hey All,

I currently have a 2018 ATV and a 2021 ATV. My 2018 is starting to slow down and have some issues so I was thinking of moving the 2021 ATV to the bedroom and upgrading to the latest model for the living room but is it a waste right now? Should I hold out in case another one drops soon?

The buyers guide says its neutral and the last one came out in October of 2022 so I am not sure if I should just hold off or just grab one now.

What would you do?

Why not do a hard reset on the 2018 model? My parents are using the appleHD model and it works just fine.