Will Android reach a plateau? I think so. I suspect by year end, Apple will narrow Android's lead. When Apple announces other carriers, it will start to even further the gap. I suspect by end of 2012, Apple will take the lead. What say you?
Apple announced iPhone with Verizon and it didn't exactly become a blockbuster hit. In fact, iPhone is in more a carriers around the world. I think you may have it reversed. iPhone has reached its saturation point at least in the higher-end and is already 4-year old. Android is still peaking. Honestly, the innovations from Android don't come from Google. Android is nothing special. It comes from their OEM and their hardware push in specs.
The thing is, Apple will win profit margins. It took home 51% of mobile profits of last year. That was 2.5x more than Nokia. Nokia is the #1
volume seller in the world and will remain that way. They still sold almost double of Android phones from last year and that was down year for them? Nokia's brand is just so ingrained with people's mind outside North America. Android will become the #1
volume smartphone OS seller in the world thanks to the many OEMs who will use it as their umbrella against "Apple rein" since they can't make great software.
Apple is a hardware/software maker. That is their forte. Google provides many free services. They don't have to sell ONE tangible product and they still make billions. As long they are driving search traffic, they make money too and don't need the cell phone industry to become big. They do Android to become BIGGER. Apple doesn't need to be #1 in volume sales to make money either. If you worry about Apple having more control and Google stealing your personal info, I bet you still use Facebook too and hang around the net alot.
In the end, these smartphone wars is for fanboys and bored media writers to have something to talk about. The average Joe and Jane will still use their iPhones, iPods, and Androids. They don't care. They will still use iTunes as well as Google's search engine, YouTube, Chrome, and Google Maps. This debate is like sports trash talk for tech geeks. Many of us will still use their products and services either way and they still make money.