So how much do you think new macbook pros will depreciate in value when the ARM ones come out?

[dapa0s]

Basically, the title.

I have a 16 inch mbp (2,3 i9, 5500 4gb,32gb ram, 1tb ssd) and I don't want to keep it if it greatly depreciates in value very soon. I was going to keep it for a few years (maybe buy the 2nd or 3rd arm generation mbp/imac), but now I'm not so sure.

 

[calliex]

Not as much as one may think. Many will want/need the intel macs to run windows/unix. I use an iMac at work and run both windows via Paralles and mac because of PC only software I need to do part of my job. Some will be looking for used machine like yours for the very purpose.

 

[dapa0s]

Not as much as one may think. Many will want/need the intel macs to run windows/unix. I use an iMac at work and run both windows via Paralles and mac because of PC only software I need to do part of my job. Some will be looking for used machine like yours for the very purpose.

Great point, didn't think of that.

 

[calliex]

I have been waiting a long time to upgrade. I have 2012 rMBP 15 in which is working fine but now that the keyboard problem is fixed I will leaning toward the 16in. I think it will about two years before apple silicon will be worth buying into. I always stay away from the first rev and it will be a year later for 2nd rev.

 

[jerryk]

Your 16" will last for years and it may be well over a year before a suitable replacement is available. But, I have no doubt the price of my 16" on the used market will drop considerably with an Apple Silicon replacement is available. Some people like Calliex need x86 compatibility on a Mac. But there are likely more that will want to run IOS/ipadOS apps on their Apple Silicon macs.

FWIW, I do a lot of development work on x86/Windows and do that on a dedicated Windows desktop with Nvidia GPUs for display and Machine Learning performance.

 

[Wando64]

Personally I think it will depreciate exactly at the same rate as it would have done anyway.
I also think that one needs to be a bit brave to jump into the first ARM Mac as an early adopter, when the only software running natively will be Apple’s own (maybe).

 

[velocityg4]

I doubt it will affect things much. 90+% of buyers likely aren't aware of what ARM vs Intel means. They just want a Mac because they are reliable and easy to use. All they'll care is that it is fast and works right.

Heck, my 2010 MBP with SSD can still fetch around $250. That's nearly three OS versions obsolete as High Sierra is the latest supported. Meaning it'll start having software compatibility issues. Not that buyers seem to care. Now that I think about it. I should sell it before it loses more value. It's not like I use it anymore.

 

[ilikewhey]

Depends how the arm perform, it’s no secret the battery and heat will be greatly improved. That’s probably the main reason why I’m waiting, the other part is the performance. Very small minority cares about be able to run windows, since chrome, office, and other main stream apps are supported, it’s gonna be a fairly popular laptop.

 

[jerryk]

Depends how the arm perform, it’s no secret the battery and heat will be greatly improved. That’s probably the main reason why I’m waiting, the other part is the performance. Very small minority cares about be able to run windows, since chrome, office, and other main stream apps are supported, it’s gonna be a fairly popular laptop.

Agreed. Apple researchers everything to the n-th degree. They did not make this change lightly and without having data on the impact on users and future sales.

 

[ilikewhey]

Agreed. Apple researchers everything to the n-th degree. They did not make this change lightly and without having data on the impact on users and future sales.

to put it in perspective of your average buyer, if all they use are main stream apps that arm is gonna support, why would they go for a 2020 intel laptop that last maybe 9 hours max and sound like a jet engine, when they can get a arm laptop that can last 20 hours and much improved thermal management. given the performance is about the same.

 

[Fishrrman]

I predict that late-model Intel MacBook Pros (in excellent condition with the scissors keyboard) may GO UP in value, not "decrease"...

 

[jerryk]

to put it in perspective of your average buyer, if all they use are main stream apps that arm is gonna support, why would they go for a 2020 intel laptop that last maybe 9 hours max and sound like a jet engine, when they can get a arm laptop that can last 20 hours and much improved thermal management. given the performance is about the same.

And run the same apps you already use on your iPhone or iPad. This is a "sleeper" feature of Apple Silicon

 

[magamo]

I can see how that should depend, at least to some extent, on how good AS macs turn out to be in terms of speed, buttery life, aesthetics, and the like, as well as how well popular apps will be supported and optimized. But I tend to think that these factors are not that important. Of course, if AS macs fail to meet the majority's expectations quite miserably to the extent that some major 3rd party apps are unusable, the value of the current 16" MBP could appreciate rather than go down. Or if the transition turns out to be a huge success from the get go, your 16" mac's value may drop sharply. But I would say these two extreme cases are rather unlikely. If AS macs happen to be just very good or poor, I don't think the majority will care. After all, your average user doesn't know or care what this transition means.

A much more important, or perhaps the single most important, factor would be the prices of the AS macs. Everyone understands what "price" means, and it matters a lot to pretty much everyone. Although the prices are nearly impossible to predict, those new completely redesigned machines won't be cheap. So, assuming Apple continues to charge us the way they usually do, I would guess your mac's resale value will be all right, if not great.

16" MBP is a great machine as it is, and if its resale value drops a lot when AS comes, it means the transition must be a great success, which I hope will happen anyway.

 

[bill-p]

Intel Macs will continue to keep their values for at least 2 years into the transition. Initially, a lot of people will still want to run Intel Mac because a lot of their smaller apps may still run natively on an Intel Mac, whereas they need to run through Rosetta 2.

That and Intel Mac can be used with Bootcamp/virtualization so they are inherently more useful.

In fact, I don't think Apple will want to tackle something like the 16" MacBook this early in the cycle. I think many are overestimating what Apple Silicon can achieve. Something like the 12" or 13" MacBook may make sense as a first generation ARM device, but... it seems a lot of the non-tech-savvy people in these forums are ignoring the fact that ARM laptops and desktops have existed in the market for a while now, and all of them have FAILED to dethrone x86 thus far.

That and I find it funny how news outlets and many are now parroting the idea that the first ARM MacBook will reach 20 hours of battery life. So then... suddenly, this mythical MacBook can both outlast the iPad Pro and outperform it.

It's like everyone is secretly wishing Apple can defy physics. I don't think that's how it works.