I think chances are good. The past IS an indicator. When Apple has had higher demand then expected they tend to work hard to catch up on backlog. Yes, it is a new product, but they have the same incentive to speed up production and sell them as fast as possible, now that the product is finished, at least the first version.
Orders pushed way ahead almost always end up getting out earlier than first scheduled, at least with Apple. I have been buying Apple stuff a long time, and buy a new iPhone every time, whether I need it or not. lol. So keep your hopes up and keep checking those shipping dates.