So real talk: Do we even know what on earth is causing this supply constrain?

[JoEw]

I like how people think mass producing 2.3 million of anything is a walk in the park.

It's going to take time for Apple to ramp production.

Conspiracy theorists try to argue they are artificially creating demand, that's ********. My friends are not hurrying to buy an Apple Watch because the ship date is until June, in fact many of them are displeased about this.

 

[chabig]

Here's the real answer: http://carlhowe.com/blog/apple-watch-an-overnight-multi-billion-dollar-business/

 

[Batman89]

They should've opened up Pre-Orders in September after the keynote and begun shipping in April.

 

[andrewpturko]

Real talk: This entire thread is speculation.

 

[fanta88]

There were rumors of problems with the hardware from the beginning. Initially they gave production of the watch to Quanta. Quanta had issues assembling the devices, so they were forced to bring in Samsung and Foxconn. Both of them needed to get up to speed and that takes time. Also, LG was having yield issues with the flexible oled displays. Someone mentioned a 30% yield, which is the same figure I read. They removed a key Heath hardware feature at the last minute because of the fda. Etc, etc.

Basically, yes, apple is kind of scrambling right now, but they're not God. Even they have limits.

 

[nfl46]

They should've opened up Pre-Orders in September after the keynote and begun shipping in April.

Could you imagine the wait times? We would be looking at December if someone decided to order in April. I don't think they were ready back in September to start ramping up supply. They probably started in early 2015.

 

[Steve686]

Everything at this point is speculation. Even emailed confirmation delivery date ranges.

Until anybody even GETS CHARGED in actuality for their order and a shipping number is issued, nobody truly knows what kind of demand supply Apple is going to hit.

So let's wait and see how this week fares and the 24th arrives.

 

[LiemTa]

I know for a fact the S1 chip was finished months ago, so it's not that.

 

[5684697]

Mainsprings. The Swiss suppliers couldn't make enough mainsprings for the watch function...

 

[bounou]

Apple announced the Watch back in September 2014. They've had ages to make product. What's their excuse?

I really don't understand how you can ask that, they produced by all accounts something like 2-3 million watches for the initial release window and set up a supply chain capable for making 2-3 million more every month.

It's a huge financial risk as it is and a feat of modern supply chain logistics. This is still a publicly traded company, just because they have 200 billion in cash does not mean they can or should take huge risks with shareholder money.

Just my 2 cents

 

[MultiMediaWill]

No, they screwed this up, and it may just cost them their watch business (if they can't ship in time).

Stop with the drama and bs.

 

[beldenben]

Apple announced the Watch back in September 2014. They've had ages to make product. What's their excuse?

Real talk: There were no production issues. This was a smokescreen. They are able to produce these just fine and have been since they introduced the iPad mini 2. It's just a watch, people were making them before trains existed, it isn't hard. This is a fact.

Real talk: It wasn't about not knowing the right ratio of demand for the different models. Apple has been sending researchers out for the last two years polling people about what model they might want. In secret. They knew what model you wanted before you even bought it. Facts on facts on facts.

Real talk: Everyone else is wrong. It's the bands. Specifically the fluoroelastomer bands on the Sport models. I know this to be a fact.

I know what you were just thinking, the fluoroelastomer bands have to be easy to make and cheap too. Guess what? You are right. The problem wasn't with the manufacturing, it was with the name. Apple has had the entire team scanning through dictionaries and thesauruses, consulting with scientists, being coached by trained linguists, all to make sure that instead of calling them 'rubber' bands they are 'fluoroelastomer' bands. They needed that time since September to make sure every single employee in the company knew how to pronounce the word and would say it every single time they refer to the band.

 

[Presonance]

You guys probably won't believe me, but I have a friend that works for Apple near Shanghai. I had a chat with him last month and he told me that the S1 is very, very difficult to make. He didn't go into much more detail than that, but that could be what's causing the constraints.

He also explained to me (and I'm just paraphrasing here, not sure I understood him 100% exactly) that Apple doesn't start mass production way in advance because if they make 20 million watches before release and they all have a showstopping bug, that's a big problem for Apple. Production has to be "ramped up" in order to avoid this kind of situation. It's also just really, really hard to get all the moving pieces in place for a product as complex as this. No other company manufacturers at the volume and extreme quality that Apple does.

 

[NJRonbo]

Real talk?' Who the hell are you?!

 

[cbird007]

Here's the real answer: http://carlhowe.com/blog/apple-watch-an-overnight-multi-billion-dollar-business/

I read this article a couple of hours ago as well. Definitely has some merit to it.

 

[sjinsjca]

No, it's not possible.

2.3 million watches is about what the whole world expected would be sold.

You're telling me Apple didn't want to have 2.3 million watches in inventory if they could? Worst case, the Apple Watch was a complete flop and sold 10,000 units (yeah right) and Apple would have had to write off a few $100MM in inventory.

On the other hand, if Apple Watch is successful, Apple stands to profit billions in the next few years.

No, they screwed this up, and it may just cost them their watch business (if they can't ship in time).

Oh please. Have you ever run a manufacturing business? It's great to dream of a hit product; it's quite painful to think you have one coming and ramp up inventory accordingly, only to find that demand is ...well, Pebble-class.

Modern business runs on just-in-time principles, where production rather than inventory is adjusted to meet demand. That's what you're seeing here: the spin-up of production in the face of demand that's very possibly greater than anticipated.

In fact, consider all the nay-saying that surrounded the Watch for months: pundits opining it'll be a flop, "watch guys" contending there's no market for it, analysts saying it's all a fool's bet, folks saying it's too pricey to sell, etc etc. It's absolutely untrue that the "whole world" expected demand to be at this level. A little caution would seem to have been in order, and that might be factoring into this too.

Add to that all the complications of building a groundbreaking new product containing countless hardware and software innovations, manufactured courtesy of fresh new supply-chain partners and sold to an entirely new market segment, all while steering the ship of a massive company in an era when massive companies tend to move slowly if at all ...truly, it's amazing it's going as well as it is, with the only glitches so far being a month or six weeks' wait for folks who purchase now-- a wait which in all likelihood might contract since Apple has a history of under-promising and over-delivering on such things.

But mostly: How long have we had wristwatches? They're an ancient product, and Apple's in the process of overturning that industry's whole damn cart, with disruptively fresh re-thinks of every aspect of the category, down to those maddening little pins that hold the straps onto almost every watch. They've done this before, of course: Phones, tablets, personal media, music and software distribution, OS updates, personal computers (at least twice)... Time and again, they find a market segment characterized by ossified, conventional, hidebound ways, and they blow it up. It's glorious; no other company has their serial record of disruption.

My advice: Relax, and behold the spectacle of Apple doing it once again, and regale in the opportunity to be a part of it.

So chill. First world problems... and the very best kind.

UPDATE: Check out this report: http://www.ubergizmo.com/2015/04/in...ated-to-be-built-to-order/?utm_source=mainrss

 

[WilliamG]

The "software" explanation is unlikely. Even if the initial shipping image is complete crap, as long as it can force an update to a new image before first use ("an update is required to use your Apple Watch") then you're fine.

Most likely they are having issues producing these in volume, since they are inventing new factory processes / tooling / etc. This is the first device of its kind for Apple.

How many Apple products can you name that force an update before use?

 

[beldenben]

How many Apple products can you name that force an update before use?

That's normally because the new firmware is being released the same day as the product, i.e. iOS 8.0 gets released when the 6 and 6 Plus get released. Those products were just flashed with it, so they don't need to be updated. The x.0.1 update is normally only a few weeks after that. And these firmwares have the benefit of having been beta tested for months, typically from WWDC in June all the way until release in September or October. The Apple Watch is a new product that is going from an internal install base of thousands at most to what could be between 1-3 million overnight. I am sure they will find some bugs and have an update out two to three weeks later at most. And considering you have to use the Apple Watch app to setup and configure the watch when you first receive it, I wouldn't bat an eye if as part of that process there was a five minute update.

Those of us that preordered in the first few minutes and get them Friday probably won't see a forced update to start, no. But everyone in that 4-6 week shipping group and definitely anyone waiting until June will have an update waiting for them before they start using it.

 

[foxkoneko]

Real talk: Everyone else is wrong. It's the bands. Specifically the fluoroelastomer bands on the Sport models. I know this to be a fact.

I know what you were just thinking, the fluoroelastomer bands have to be easy to make and cheap too. Guess what? You are right. The problem wasn't with the manufacturing, it was with the name. Apple has had the entire team scanning through dictionaries and thesauruses, consulting with scientists, being coached by trained linguists, all to make sure that instead of calling them 'rubber' bands they are 'fluoroelastomer' bands. They needed that time since September to make sure every single employee in the company knew how to pronounce the word and would say it every single time they refer to the band.

dat tinfoil hat

 

[WilliamG]

That's normally because the new firmware is being released the same day as the product, i.e. iOS 8.0 gets released when the 6 and 6 Plus get released. Those products were just flashed with it, so they don't need to be updated. The x.0.1 update is normally only a few weeks after that. And these firmwares have the benefit of having been beta tested for months, typically from WWDC in June all the way until release in September or October. The Apple Watch is a new product that is going from an internal install base of thousands at most to what could be between 1-3 million overnight. I am sure they will find some bugs and have an update out two to three weeks later at most. And considering you have to use the Apple Watch app to setup and configure the watch when you first receive it, I wouldn't bat an eye if as part of that process there was a five minute update.

Those of us that preordered in the first few minutes and get them Friday probably won't see a forced update to start, no. But everyone in that 4-6 week shipping group and definitely anyone waiting until June will have an update waiting for them before they start using it.

Well of course that's true. I'm saying how many FORCED updates can you recall on an Apple product? i.e. updates where you CANNOT use the device until you connect to the Internet and download an update.

My argument is that I think it's EXACTLY the software reason (more than hardware constraints) that's causing the issue, because Apple is unlikely to ship the devices without 100% working software.

 

[edlex]

Only one answer...




...Aliens

 

[Joe HS]

Given that this is all speculation I'll throw in that the bands and their materials might be part of the problem, in addition to not wanting to overproduce watches by starting months in advance.

 

[jroloff]

Real talk: Everyone else is wrong. It's the bands. Specifically the fluoroelastomer bands on the Sport models. I know this to be a fact.

I know what you were just thinking, the fluoroelastomer bands have to be easy to make and cheap too. Guess what? You are right. The problem wasn't with the manufacturing, it was with the name. Apple has had the entire team scanning through dictionaries and thesauruses, consulting with scientists, being coached by trained linguists, all to make sure that instead of calling them 'rubber' bands they are 'fluoroelastomer' bands. They needed that time since September to make sure every single employee in the company knew how to pronounce the word and would say it every single time they refer to the band.

This guy is correct. I still don't know how to pronounce that band, and I'll be receiving one with my watch! I give Apple credit for even making it this far in the process.

 

[McDaddio]

No, it's not possible.

2.3 million watches is about what the whole world expected would be sold.

You're telling me Apple didn't want to have 2.3 million watches in inventory if they could? .

This is the funniest thing ever!

uhhh....you do know that there are lots of different skus, right? 2.3M of which type of watch? which bands? which sizes?

 

[cmichaelb]

He also explained to me (and I'm just paraphrasing here, not sure I understood him 100% exactly) that Apple doesn't start mass production way in advance because if they make 20 million watches before release and they all have a showstopping bug, that's a big problem for Apple. Production has to be "ramped up" in order to avoid this kind of situation.

Oh please. Have you ever run a manufacturing business? It's great to dream of a hit product; it's quite painful to think you have one coming and ramp up inventory accordingly, only to find that demand is ...well, Pebble-class.

Modern business runs on just-in-time principles, where production rather than inventory is adjusted to meet demand. That's what you're seeing here: the spin-up of production in the face of demand that's very possibly greater than anticipated......
So chill. First world problems... and the very best kind.

Right here. You guys nailed it. Any new product roll out, especially anything so complex, is a TON of work.

Problems might not arise in the first few thousand that may rise when you try and produce 100s of thousands.

What's really impressive is how well Apple does roll out new products considering how high the demand is.