Dwalls90
macrumors 603
There are already 24K deaths worldwide, and if you look at the curve, it's steadily increasing and not coming down anytime soon. At best, we're maybe 10-20% through this pandemic.
Sources in Apple's Supply Chain Dismiss Reports of iPhone 12 Launch Delay
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There are already 24K deaths worldwide, and if you look at the curve, it's steadily increasing and not coming down anytime soon. At best, we're maybe 10-20% through this pandemic.
Dwalls90
macrumors 603
This virus is nothing like the flu. Not biologically, and not statistically. Are you getting your information from the news and Twitter, or from scientist and experts in the health field?
In the US, there are 38M cases of the flu annually. 1% of these require hospitalization, but not necessarily ICU beds. Less than .1% of these people die.
COVID-19 is far more contagious than the flu. Even with the social distancing measures in place, cases (only confirmed cases, since you can't even get a test in most countries) have increased by a factor of 10 in only a month. The exponential curve shows us that the rate of spread is still increasing, not decreasing. Unlike the flu, 15-20% of COVID-19 cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU beds. The mortality rate of COVID-19 is estimated to be 2-3%, or 25 times higher than the flu on average.
Since it's more contagious than the flu, and doesn't "die down" in warmer seasons (like the flu), models show that up to 50% of US citizens could contract the virus before a vaccine is released, if we don't continue to social distance and quarantine. Based on this math of 330M US citizens, 50% contracting the virus, and a mortality rate of 2% (we'll be conservative and round down), over 3M US citizens could die if the virus isn't contained. We also need to remember that if millions people contract the virus at the same time, hospitals won't be able to handle this capacity, meaning anyone who needs a hospital will likely die, thus increasing the mortality rate well above 2%. Even if you play with the numbers to round down the assumptions, 3M down to 1M is still materially larger than the 38,000 that die from the flu each year.
So, no, it's nothing like the flu.
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cmaier
Suspended
It’s not like the resources for building the phones would be otherwise engaged finding a cure for CV19
DoctorTech
macrumors 6502a
At the risk of sounding really cold hearted, the world is always fighting global health concerns that can and do kill millions of people. For instance, in 2018 alone, 10 MILLION people contacted Tuberculosis and 1.5 MILLION of them died from it. https://www.who.int/tb/global-report-2019
I realize the current Corona Virus is having a much bigger impact on the world than Tuberculosis, the 2009 H1N1 "Swine Flu" (3,433 deaths in the US), and the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak (9.5% lethality rate) combined. However, at some point, when life begins to return to something closer to our "old normal" (I don't expect it will ever go all the way back) at least part of the workforce is going to return to work and some public gatherings will resume. I don't see it as putting profits over global health concerns to start planning for that time.
I am doing my part right now by staying home and social distancing but most of today's travel / gathering restrictions are not going to be permanent and I look forward to some semblance of normality (i.e. buying a new iPhone) when that time comes.
DoctorTech
macrumors 6502a
How can anyone know "15-20% of COVID-19 cases require hospitalization" when we have no idea how many cases there are? I teach graduate level statistics and this is a classic example of "sample bias". If we only know about severe cases (people sick enough to seek medical help and people presenting with enough symptoms to meet the CDC criteria for COVID-19 testing) then of course a high percentage of the worst cases will require hospitalization. The only way we will ever know how many people actually have COVID-19 would be to randomly sample a large group of people but we don't have enough test kits and testing capacity for that to be a feasible option right now.
I am not saying this isn't serious. I'm just saying I keep reading "statements of fact" about things that are simply unknowable at this time.
cmaier
Suspended
We know a bit more than you're suggesting. For example, we know that the UK and US have something like 1-3 out of 10,000 tests that are positive. The testing isn't entirely a random sample, of course, but it is directed at those believed most likely to be infected. So we do have pretty good information about how many "undetected" cases there are. We also know from China, where things have now calmed down but testing has continued for the antibody, that the number of cases that did not result in at least flu-like symptoms is small. (They classified as "mild" anything up to and including pneumonia without intubation. This has caused a lot of confusion because "mild" was not what a lot of people were saying it was).
Dwalls90
macrumors 603
As many others have noted in this thread, that's not the issue. The issue is that with restricted travel, and businesses and/or production lines shut down, the necessary planning steps that need to be taken leading up to a product launch have been delayed. Therefore, it's reasonable that a product launch may be delayed.
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I agree that the data set we have is incomplete, and it's really unfortunate that months after this being brought to the attention of various country leaders, the average citizen can't get tested unless they're basically requiring hospitalization.
In my rough analysis, I rounded down a few percentage points, which should be more reasonable in response to hospitalization rates potentially being overstated. I agree that it's unlikely the hospitalization rate, the ICU requirement rate, and mortality rate are exactly are what the media is illustrating, based on the best data available at this time. But looking more at the models and less at only the imperfect data available, even if you continue to round down these estimated rates further, 500,000 deaths for one country alone is pretty scary. I think in these situations, where lives are at stake, it's better to err on the side of worst case scenario, versus the contrary.
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I think it's good to look at history and the data to make sure we're being reasonable. As you noted, we don't have enough data to truly understand COVID-19. But the ballparked hospitalization and mortality rates, that have pretty much held consistent January, are scary figures and haven't moved much. We also know the curve of COVID-19 spread indicates we're nowhere near the time where it will begin to dwindle down, and many more lives will be lost.
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I7guy
macrumors Westmere
We won't know if there is any delay or not until September rolls around as we don't really know the "real" story. Just what is being reported by rumors. While I'm not attempting to stifle conversation, there are only guesses as to what may or may not happen at this point in time.
Dwalls90
macrumors 603
Right, and as a rumors site, anything is open to discussion.
cmaier
Suspended
But that's not what I said. The question isn't whether the product launch *may* be delayed. Of course it *may* be.
The original poster I was responding to is saying the product launch *should* be delayed. That's very different.
I7guy
macrumors Westmere
Correct, I was noting nobody here has any concrete info to say definitively either. Now, opinions are an entirely other matter.
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Chloros
Suspended
Disagree....only because your argument is based on your opinion and we all know whats said about opinions.
DoctorTech
macrumors 6502a
I appreciate your comment and you are right, there are some indicators we can look at to give us some idea of how many undetected cases there might be in the US. However, those indicators themselves are somewhat suspect due to issues with some of the tests themselves. The Guardian is reporting a batch of 58,000 Chinese made CoVid-19 test kits only had a 30% detection rate.
Coronavirus test kits withdrawn in Spain over poor accuracy rate
Batch with only 30% detection rate was bought by health officials from Chinese supplier
There is no such thing as 100% accurate medical test, even mammograms are only capable of detecting breast cancer 87% of the time. https://ww5.komen.org/BreastCancer/AccuracyofMammograms.html
Between the uncertainty about the accuracy of the tests themselves (at least tests made by certain manufacturers) and the uncertainty about the methods and accuracy of reporting of new cases in China I am hesitant to put a lot of faith in these indicators to estimate the number of unknown cases in the US.
Analysis | China is reporting big successes in the coronavirus fight. Should we trust the numbers?
Here's why you should be skeptical.
www.washingtonpost.com