"Statistical" evidence for iMac update...

Discussion in 'iMac' started by vtprinz, Jan 13, 2008.

  1. vtprinz macrumors 6502

    Nov 30, 2004
    Warning - Half-witted rambling ahead...

    I was looking at the buyer's guide, which lists the avg update time as 185 days. However, I looked at all the updates listed going back to 2003 and thought, since this is obviously only going to be a speed bump, how long is the average cycle for speed bumps alone? I would expect that since a re-design would take longer than a speed bump, I thought it would give me more reason to think that a speed bump is imminent. Unfortunately that wasn't the case:

    If you take out these spans:

    09/03-11/03 - Added the 20" model, rest stayed the same so not really an update
    11/03-08/04 - Introduced the G5 iMac
    10/05-01/06 - Introduced the Intel iMac
    09/06-08/07 - Introduced the Aluminum iMac

    All that's left are spec speed bumps. Averaging out the times between those, I got about 215 days, not 185. Granted, if I keep the switch to Intel into the equation, since it wasn't really a redesign, it brings it down to 190 days, but the Intel switch was an extenuating circumstance, so I don't think it should be considered.

    So if we take 215 days as the average, it means we have about 2 months left (on average), i.e. March. If you look at all of the mac products in the buyer's guide, you'll see that Apple, at least in the last 5 years, has only once updated a product in March, a quiet update for the 30" display. There's also only been 3 updates during February for the last 5 years, and only 1 update in the last 4 years if you take out the xserve and iMac which were both updated in February 2003 (the mini got it's Intel switch in Feb 06). 8 updates have occurred during April in the last 5 years, with at least one product update every year during that month.

    Of course, none of this might mean anything at all, but merely on a statistical standpoint, if I had to place a bet, it would be for April or May (which is unfortunate because I'm going to be buying soon and I'm hoping for an update)
  2. Mindflux macrumors 68000


    Oct 20, 2007

    This date range is wrong. They got introduced in 8/07, what's this 9/06 business?
  3. vtprinz thread starter macrumors 6502

    Nov 30, 2004
    09/06 was the date of the last update before the aluminum iMacs got introduced. So the time span between that 09/06 update and the 08/07 re-design would presumably be longer than the time span between normal speed bumps, hence why I omitted it.
  4. gazfocus macrumors 68000


    Jan 3, 2008
    Liverpool, UK
    you have to consider the fact that one of the reasons Apple switched to Intel processors was so that they could update them more often. Therefore, you need to look at the frequency of updates SINCE the introduction of Intel Processors.

    Also, Apple will be falling in line with the Processor updates coming from Intel (this has already been proven by Apple introducing Penryn processors in the Mac Pro within days of the Penryin being released).

    One theory is that Apple secure as many of these processors as possible, install them in their products, and have an agreement with Intel to not release the products with new processors until the official release date.

    In my opinion, the iMac's seem to get updated on a 6 month basis and with that in mind, we are due an update sometime between now and the end of February.

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