I'm posting this because I'm astonished at how many otherwise smart people I'm seeing on the forums make a very, very basic statistical mistake - one of the first things one learns in any stats class - and I'm interested in seeing the outcome.
Answer according to your "gut feeling," don't overthink it - answer the way you would instantaneously feel if it really happened. Here's the scenario...
Your Brand X computer, the sixth Brand X computer you've owned in the past 10 years, is starting to act up. Your history with Brand X computers has been nothing but awful. Multiple failures on every one. But they're always so inexpensive, you just can't pass them up. Consumer Reports says there is nothing awry with Brand X - its reliability ratings are fine.
Meanwhile you have a friend who just bought a Brand Y computer. It's his sixth Brand Y computer in the past 10 years, and it's been nothing but trouble-free for him so far. In fact, every Brand Y computer he's ever owned has been wonderful to him! You checked Consumer Reports and there is nothing special about Brand Y - its reliability ratings are right in the middle - in fact a perfect tie with what Brand X's are.
You're so pissed at your Brand X that you think it's time to buy a new computer. You have store credit at Mom N Pop's Computer Warehouse, so you stop in and there's a Brand X computer and a Brand Y computer sitting on the shelf right next to each other. These two are all they have in stock. Their specs are both identical, similar styling, same price. If you were to buy one, which one do you think would end up being more reliable for you? Again... gut feeling.
Brand X
Brand Y
Answer according to your "gut feeling," don't overthink it - answer the way you would instantaneously feel if it really happened. Here's the scenario...
Your Brand X computer, the sixth Brand X computer you've owned in the past 10 years, is starting to act up. Your history with Brand X computers has been nothing but awful. Multiple failures on every one. But they're always so inexpensive, you just can't pass them up. Consumer Reports says there is nothing awry with Brand X - its reliability ratings are fine.
Meanwhile you have a friend who just bought a Brand Y computer. It's his sixth Brand Y computer in the past 10 years, and it's been nothing but trouble-free for him so far. In fact, every Brand Y computer he's ever owned has been wonderful to him! You checked Consumer Reports and there is nothing special about Brand Y - its reliability ratings are right in the middle - in fact a perfect tie with what Brand X's are.
You're so pissed at your Brand X that you think it's time to buy a new computer. You have store credit at Mom N Pop's Computer Warehouse, so you stop in and there's a Brand X computer and a Brand Y computer sitting on the shelf right next to each other. These two are all they have in stock. Their specs are both identical, similar styling, same price. If you were to buy one, which one do you think would end up being more reliable for you? Again... gut feeling.
Brand X
Brand Y