Statistics quiz!

Brand Y, because reviews are completely irrelivant. They state someone else's opinion, not your own...

And I would much more rather prefer a Machine which is average, but doesn't give me loads of problems, than a Machine which gives me loads of problems, but gets good reviews...

 

Simple.

For me, "Brand X" played the role of Windows-based PC's. I've used them all my life and always had one problem or another with them (which is why I'm as tech savvy as I am). I've owned at least 6 or 7 "Brand X" computers in my life.

Then, a friend of mine was going on about how he doesn't understand why anyone would use anything buy "Brand Y" (Mac in this case).

I switched and haven't looked back since. Definitely the right move for me, regardless of whether or not the decision was supported by statistics.

 

IT doesn't matter. The reactions to computer X and Y are based on the personality of the consumer, in this scenario; there is no difference between them. If the "I" switches to Brand Y, he'll be just as likely to complain as the friend would to not complain if he switched to brand X.

 

I'd buy brand Y just to spite the gremlins that inhabit Brand X's computers, which are always eating away at the cables and hitting the Hard Drives to mess up my computers!

 

The reviews are an aggregate. I would hypothesize that the failures in brand x are due to a wiring defect in the house (something not experienced by many people in the aggregate review) and would try brand y to see if their components are more robust in that aspect.

 

Your poll would've been better if there was actually a technically correct option for which one of your voters could vote. It's easy to say that Americans don't understand statistics when you only offer them incorrect options and then scoff at the fact that they chose incorrectly!

There's also another problem inherent in this. Your basic point that people tend to overweight less powerful anecdotal evidence (based on small sample sizes) and underweight more powerful empirical evidence (based on large sample sizes) is correct.

HOWEVER.

However, in order to rigorously conclude that the Consumer Reports data is more reliable than the anecdotal data, one must add the assumption that defect rate is not related to usage profile. Which is a fair assumption sometimes. But probably not a fair assumption in computers. If you and your friend have vastly different usage profiles, there is no data here to negate the claim that it is your usage profile and not your brand that lead to the failures. Nor is there any data to negate the potentially compelling claim that usage profile and brand interact.

You're still left with the unavailable best answer -- that there is no clear evidence that either brand is a better pick than the other in terms of reliability.

But that is not the same as concluding that the anecdotal evidence in this scenario is not potentially powerful, and not potentially more powerful than the statistical data.

Again... if your vested interest is in proving how smart you are and how dumb others are, you can certainly create a "test" that appears to prove this. But whether it actually does so...

 

I went with my gut and clicked on option Y. Barely read the post too

 

Like I said...I totally agree with that point. But then we all know that Dell is Brand X!

 

I would buy Brand Y. I take the stats into account, but I also take into account my personal experiences. If nothing else, I would get the satisfaction of moving away from a company that has given nothing but trouble.

 

The hidden truth - the friend was a IT specialist by profession...

 

i agree

and reviews look at brand new machines when some problems don't show up...but within a month, as a computer tech for 7 years, i have seen almost all problems present themselves up front

it's rare, actually very rare, to see problems come up from the first year to about the third year...but after that, stuff just wears out

 

If a brand is giving me lots of problems i would dump it so fast that i would be on my way to a store to by brand y.