Strategy Analytics: Apple Shipped an Estimated 65.9 Million iPhones in Holiday Quarter

[Baymowe335]

Armchair analysts...your AAPL position biases everything you write

My AAPL position forces me to know what's fake news and what isn't. I understand the company. The armchair analysts don't. Want to bet against me? Short it. I put my money where my mouth is.

I want you to short it because it will just force you to buy it later and make my shares more valuable.

 

[alexnyc8]

the cell phone market has peaked they are now commodity. this is like pc around 2003
the general markets are set to implode. the is federal reserve will probably try to pump them by lowering rates (only a matter of time until they do) but the only effect it will achieve this time is much faster inflation or more accurately stagflation. most current phones are good enough and upgrading their phone will be the last thing on peoples minds especially considering that average american has less than $500 in savings
companies including apple know this which is why stock buybacks are in alltime high. ill leave it up to you to research that stock buybacks are bad thing as all they do is enrich insiders.

 

[2GoldFish]

The second best quarter down from the 1st best quarter and the declining revenue trend has started?

Time will tell wouldn’t it. Sit back and relax.
[doublepost=1548874713][/doublepost]

That’s one data point. Not a trend. By definition.

Why does everyone keep confusing their personal opinions about Apple and its products with an objective analysis of the company? Good grief. It isn’t hard.
[doublepost=1548850893][/doublepost]

Possibly as hard as Apple loyalists who are unable to accept that Apple failed to grow in the last quarter.

As I've said before - "Relax mate, sit back and watch the show"

 

[I7guy]

Time will tell wouldn’t it. Sit back and relax.
[doublepost=1548874713][/doublepost]

Possibly as hard as Apple loyalists who are unable to accept that Apple failed to grow in the last quarter.

As I've said before - "Relax mate, sit back and watch the show"

As hard as the “bashers” who are now decrying the end of apple?

I am relaxed and am enjoying the show.

 

[ROGmaster]

This is a false narrative.

If iPhone sales were down 15%, how did services grow at 20% y/y?

No it's not.
And the answer is simple: Because currently services are growing at a fast pace.
The key word being currently.

Also if iphone unit sales wouldn't have declined, services most likely would have recorded an even bigger than 20% improvement. Simple logic.

 

[2GoldFish]

As hard as the “bashers” who are now decrying the end of apple?

I am relaxed and am enjoying the show.

Want some pop corn while we watch?

 

[Baymowe335]

No it's not.
And the answer is simple: Because currently services are growing at a fast pace.
The key word being currently.

Also if iphone unit sales wouldn't have declined, services most likely would have recorded an even bigger than 20% improvement. Simple logic.

The installed base grew 100M. People aren't leaving the platform. That's what is important.

MANY people assume a decline in iPhone sales means a decline in active units or services or whatever. It really just means people aren't upgrading. That's what is happening here. I would be concerned to see a declining installed base. 100M gain in 12 months is actually incredible.

 

[BrooksA]

The installed base grew 100M. People aren't leaving the platform. That's what is important.

MANY people assume a decline in iPhone sales means a decline in active units or services or whatever. It really just means people aren't upgrading. That's what is happening here. I would be concerned to see a declining installed base. 100M gain in 12 months is actually incredible.

Apple's future depends on what proportion of the installed base are prepared to pay for services, be it Applecare or apps primarily and now Apple music. If you combine Spotify and Apple music paid subscribers that's less than 10% of Apple's active user base, which is pretty low considering the maturity of music streaming at this point. You may see this as vast potential, I would say they should be doing better than that at this point as there is no barrier to scaling that product.

I also see the walled garden affecting hardware sales, as the Homepod will attest. You say that what is important is whether people leave ios or not and that that isn't happening, but you can't be sure of that until the now longer upgrade cycles work their way through and people make a decision. You are blinkered if you think that was a fantastic set of results.

 

[john123]

You seem like a reasonable dude, so I will bite on service revenue (Item No. 3):

[First, I have no direct dog on this fight, like others in here vested heart and soul on AAPL, as all my investments are focused on Vanguard index funds: I believe in the US economy at large.]

Lets go to the Apple "services tape"/s:

1. OS-independent Internet Services::= AppleMusic, iTunes
2. Hardware-dependent Services ::= AppleCare[insurance], ApplePay[mobile payments], iCloud[storage], AppStore[Mac and iPhone Apps]

Have I missed one or more?
Note that the "big-boy" services revenue are proportional to hardware sales: Specifically, AppleCare, ApplePay, iCloud and AppStore.

Only when, and if, Cook can unleash a profitable services stream, independent and agnostic across player hardware, then one can state, irrevocably, that Apple has turned into a "pure services" company.

Maybe it will be AppleStream[TV and Movies], but until then, services revenue will remain proportional to iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales. [HomePod notwithstanding].

Just my view. [You probably feel otherwise.]

I don’t. That all seems right to me.

——

It’s a measure of what people THINK the company is worth, given all the information that’s out there. Apparently people see enough reason to value AAPL 40% lower than a few months ago.

Which speaks to the inefficiency of capital market pricing and not much more.
[doublepost=1548888172][/doublepost]

Time will tell wouldn’t it. Sit back and relax.
[doublepost=1548874713][/doublepost]

Possibly as hard as Apple loyalists who are unable to accept that Apple failed to grow in the last quarter.

As I've said before - "Relax mate, sit back and watch the show"

Who doesn’t accept that Apple had negative YOY revenue? I’ve not seen anyone suggest the facts are wrong.

 

[Baymowe335]

Apple's future depends on what proportion of the installed base are prepared to pay for services, be it Applecare or apps primarily and now Apple music. If you combine Spotify and Apple music paid subscribers that's less than 10% of Apple's active user base, which is pretty low considering the maturity of music streaming at this point. You may see this as vast potential, I would say they should be doing better than that at this point as there is no barrier to scaling that product.

I also see the walled garden affecting hardware sales, as the Homepod will attest. You say that what is important is whether people leave ios or not and that that isn't happening, but you can't be sure of that until the now longer upgrade cycles work their way through and people make a decision. You are blinkered if you think that was a fantastic set of results.

Dude, they made $20B in 90 days and grew non-iPhone at 19%.

I think everyone knows the iPhone revenue and units contracted and China was bad, but the numbers Apple put up are impressive everywhere else. 360M paying subscribers? 63% GM on services? That's huge and why you saw the market react to these earnings like it did. The future is services, period.

They even grew iPad and Mac revenue, showing they can dust off old products and get people excited again.

Wearables growth is just crazy.

And you're not impressed with Apple Music? Not sure why. They've taken it from <10M subscribers 3 years ago to over 50M. Do the growth rate on that.

What would be fantastic results? Why were they not fantastic? Because of iPhone? I agree. Needs to be better. But you have to look at what they can with this installed base over time. Again, they aren't leaving, and they make 63% GM on the installed base.

I don't think many companies with the worldwide business of Apple can give every single metric a check mark, every single quarter. Global business is hard. You have trade tension in China, major Forex headwinds and just different markets/economies to deal with all over the place. Apple is doing a fantastic job managing all these items. Can they improve, sure.

The story of this report was the services margin, growth, and 1.4B installed base. That is going to be the future.

 

[PickUrPoison]

<snip>

Why does everyone keep confusing their personal opinions about Apple and its products with an objective analysis of the company? Good grief. It isn’t hard.

The anti-Apple brigade isn’t interested in Apple analysis, only in Apple failing.

Can you imagine living your life hoping for a company (a company!) to fail, only to see it succeed beyond your wildest dreams? If so, you can understand why they’re so bitter, confused and unhappy.

 

[2GoldFish]

I don’t. That all seems right to me.

——


Which speaks to the inefficiency of capital market pricing and not much more.
[doublepost=1548888172][/doublepost]

Who doesn’t accept that Apple had negative YOY revenue? I’ve not seen anyone suggest the facts are wrong.

Why don’t you go back 6 to 12 months?

As soon as a negative report/rumour about Apple came out, Apple loyalist come forward and defend/dismiss those claims and not willing to accept that Apple wouldn’t deliver ‘another’ smashing quarter.

Open your eyes.
[doublepost=1548893507][/doublepost]

The anti-Apple brigade isn’t interested in Apple analysis, only in Apple failing.

Can you imagine living your life hoping for a company (a company!) to fail, only to see it succeed beyond your wildest dreams? If so, you can understand why they’re so bitter, confused and unhappy.

A lot of people (including myself) commented negatively about Apple not because we want Apple to fail. You would be surprised at how many of us are actually Apple users.

Some of us commented negatively in response to Apple loyalists who stand and shout at anyone who make any negative remarks on MR. To me, that is plain disrespectful hence the kick back.

 

[Williesleg]

But uhhh they’re still using iPhones. They’re still in the ecosystem. There are always going to be people with older iPhones. That doesn’t mean the new ones suck.

The technology is maturing. Things have changed a lot since iPhone 6, but some people don’t like change and also don’t want to spend money.

Apple is different now than they were 10 years ago, but that doesn’t necesssrily mean it’s a bad thing.

Apple is out of ideas. Like General Electric and Detroit. It was fun while it lasted.

 

[john123]

Why don’t you go back 6 to 12 months?

As soon as a negative report/rumour about Apple came out, Apple loyalist come forward and defend/dismiss those claims and not willing to accept that Apple wouldn’t deliver ‘another’ smashing quarter.

Open your eyes.

They’re wide open, amigo. Unlike you and the armchair finance people around here, I have a background in equity valuation. (Among other things.)

That quarter was “smashing.” It just wasn’t as smashing as the one a year ago.

I’d suggest going to the library and checking out one of the many books on corporate finance. I doubt you will. Better to enjoy a life filled with confirmation bias, eh?

 

[I7guy]

Why don’t you go back 6 to 12 months?

As soon as a negative report/rumour about Apple came out, Apple loyalist come forward and defend/dismiss those claims and not willing to accept that Apple wouldn’t deliver ‘another’ smashing quarter.

Open your eyes.
[doublepost=1548893507][/doublepost]

A lot of people (including myself) commented negatively about Apple not because we want Apple to fail. You would be surprised at how many of us are actually Apple users.

Some of us commented negatively in response to Apple loyalists who stand and shout at anyone who make any negative remarks on MR. To me, that is plain disrespectful hence the kick back.

There are more than black and white to most things, like a lot of shades of grey in-between. If at one end there are Apple loyalists, what is at the other end? Seems like the people have spoken with a mere $84B in revenue. Nothing in here is to be construed that Apple can't improve, but a lot of the picture that gets painted is doom and gloom.

 

[2GoldFish]

They’re wide open, amigo. Unlike you and the armchair finance people around here, I have a background in equity valuation. (Among other things.)

That quarter was “smashing.” It just wasn’t as smashing as the one a year ago.

I’d suggest going to the library and checking out one of the many books on corporate finance. I doubt you will. Better to enjoy a life filled with confirmation bias, eh?

Congratulation for having a background in equity. The trash that come out of your mouth sounds like you need to spend a couple more years in college though.

Thank you for your suggestion. I'd suggest you doing some yoga to chill out.

If you can't handle other's opinion, then you should take some med to control your blood pressure before coming to MR. Or you can always work for Apple in China and help them to meet their own guidance so they can have another 'smashing' quarter.

 

[john123]

Congratulation for having a background in equity. The trash that come out of your mouth sounds like you need to spend a couple more years in college though.

Thank you for your suggestion. I'd suggest you doing some yoga to chill out.

If you can't handle other's opinion, then you should take some med to control your blood pressure before coming to MR. Or you can always work for Apple in China and help them to meet their own guidance so they can have another 'smashing' quarter.

Are your feelings hurt? Good.

I’m sorry reality doesn’t line up with your opinions.

 

[2GoldFish]

There are more than black and white to most things, like a lot of shades of grey in-between. If at one end there are Apple loyalists, what is at the other end? Seems like the people have spoken with a mere $84B in revenue. Nothing in here is to be construed that Apple can't improve, but a lot of the picture that gets painted is doom and gloom.

I agree with you completely - nothing is black and white.

As I've said else where, I personally do not want Apple to fail. In fact, I am a Apple user.

Is Apple doom and gloom? Far from it. But is it as glory as it used to be? No.

There is no perfect financials. My personal experience on MR is that Apple loyalist have been very aggressive towards anyone who comments negatively about Apple's financials. If you look my comments, you would find that I have done nothing more, but to present items of concerns. Unfortunately, this is a no no.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Apple does well in the US, it is currently hurting everywhere else according to Tim, straight from the horses mouth.

You’re absolutely wrong. I listened to the conference call so don’t try to shove words in Mr. Cook’s mouth; you’re not going to get away with it.

From the transcript:

“Most of the shortfall relative to our original guidance and over 100% of our worldwide year-over-year revenue decline was driven by our performance in Greater China.

Despite iPhone upgrades being lower than we anticipated, our business grew outside of China, including new records in the Americas, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and our rest of Asia Pacific segment. We had record performance in large markets, including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain and Korea.”

 

[2GoldFish]

Are your feelings hurt? Good.

I’m sorry reality doesn’t line up with your opinions.

Wake up son. My opinion made on MR late last year became reality this year!

Looks like my common sense works better than your "equity" background. It is not too late to change career bud.

 

[ipponrg]

I agree with you completely - nothing is black and white.

As I've said else where, I personally do not want Apple to fail. In fact, I am a Apple user.

Is Apple doom and gloom? Far from it. But is it as glory as it used to be? No.

There is no perfect financials. My personal experience on MR is that Apple loyalist have been very aggressive towards anyone who comments negatively about Apple's financials. If you look my comments, you would find that I have done nothing more, but to present items of concerns. Unfortunately, this is a no no.

Sorry man, if you’re neutral, you are bucketed into the pessimistic group.

These alleged financial experts only value financials and Tim Cook’s carefully crafted words. You should never mention anything between the lines because that’d be too logical

 

[newyorksole]

Apple is out of ideas. Like General Electric and Detroit. It was fun while it lasted.

Lmaooo come on bro. Out of ideas? Nah.

 

[PickUrPoison]

It’s a measure of what people THINK the company is worth, given all the information that’s out there. Apparently people see enough reason to value AAPL 40% lower than a few months ago.

It’s actually only(!) down 29% off its all-time high of 233 at the moment... which is bad enough

 

[2GoldFish]

Sorry man, if you’re neutral, you are bucketed into the pessimistic group.

These alleged financial experts only value financials and Tim Cook’s carefully crafted words. You should never mention anything between the lines because that’d be too logical

Thank you.

I am sure this wouldn't make sense to a lot of you, but I don't want Apple to become just another company that focus on bottom line. I am waiting for Apple to launch a product that teaches and changes the way we interact with technology - just like the original iPad.

 

[dilbert99]

You’re absolutely wrong. I listened to the conference call so don’t try to shove words in Mr. Cook’s mouth; you’re not going to get away with it.

From the transcript:

“Most of the shortfall relative to our original guidance and over 100% of our worldwide year-over-year revenue decline was driven by our performance in Greater China.

Despite iPhone upgrades being lower than we anticipated, our business grew outside of China, including new records in the Americas, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and our rest of Asia Pacific segment. We had record performance in large markets, including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Spain and Korea.”

Well that sounds like hurting to me, also look at all the markets that were absent from the list