His math sucks. Revenue would be $45 billion if Apple does a Netflix competitor. This isn’t an App Store 30%-cut revenue sharing model. That said, I don’t think they’ll get 250 million subscribers and I don’t think it’ll be priced at $15/month.
He seems to be confusing two completely different concepts:
- A Netflix-like streaming service where Apple gets all the revenue, but also has a ton of costs associated with producing original shows and licensing third party content; and
Can’t believe this guy’s getting paid for his “analysis”. What a mess.
- Taking a cut (it probably wouldn't be 30%) for getting people to subscribe to (and billing for) other streaming services, which would be available through the TV app: Showtime/HBO/STARZ/Disney/whatever. (Amazon Prime does this.) There could also be an element of live-channel streaming like Sling/PS Vue/Hulu Live/DirecTV Now, either through pass-through subscriptions or by creating their own similar OTT service.
Yup.. He made a mistake counting. I think he took a third of the subscribers instead of the revenue.