I'm really conflicted about this one. On the one hand, I think more competition in the marketplace is better. On the other hand, it's quite likely that Sprint will go under in a few years. If the latter is the case, I'd rather T-Mobile scoop them up now than having their towers and infrastructure auctioned off to the big two. T-Mobile has been really instrumental in keeping the big two in check, but I can't help but think they'll become more like the big two if they suddenly are in the big two. As it so often happens, the top dog gets really greedy. Either way, the regulatory climate in the U.S. right now is probably a lot more favorable towards approving mergers like this than they were a few years ago, so anything could happen.
I too am of two minds on this. But contrary to many people's justified concerns, something tells me that this could be a positive change for consumers in the long term.
As things are now, if Sprint were to disappear in a few years due to their weak market position and fierce competitive pressures, currently mostly from T-Mobile, depending on who of the remaining three main players would be able to scoop up their spectrum, this could potentially leave T-Mob in an even weaker position due to their already very slim margins, with virtually no cash left for network improvements, and for tackling the two remaining behemoths. And that could spell their demise not long after, leaving us with the gloomy prospect of two titans lapping up the crumbs, and very little incentive to change the comfortable status quo.
However, if T-Mob and Sprint were to get the regulatory go-ahead to merge, with their combined Spectrum and customer base, they would end up being a larger, stronger alternative to VER and AT&T than each could hope to become individually, leaving us with three large providers and the more permanent and resilient dynamism necessary for a healthy and competitive marketplace.
The combined newly merged entity's biggest challenge might actually be a conversion of Sprint's network to GSM, a costly and daunting undertaking, but one that would pay off long-term in increased efficiencies.
As an aside, upon reflection, the reversal of the relative market positions of T-Mob and Sprint in regards to who would acquire whom may have been Deutsche Telekom's overriding motive with their aggressive discounting policies of the last few years, rather than putting the squeeze on the two frontrunners who had a virtually unassailable market position lead.
But such a potential merger could still go awry however, from a consumer point of view, if the new entity can not realize the significant savings from infrastructure and workforce efficiencies needed to have a positive cashflow, continue to improve the new network (which will be key to attracting new customers), and fund the above mentioned transition of the old Sprint's network from CDMA to GSM.
It will be interesting to see how all the variables of this process play out in the coming months and years.